<i> A behind-the-scenes look at Orange County’s political life</i>

One of the highlights of the state Republican convention in Anaheim last weekend was a forum where GOP luminaries made predictions about the upcoming elections. On the panel were Assembly Speaker Curt Pringle of Garden Grove, conservative columnist William Rusher and political consultants Lyn Nofziger and Sal Russo.

All but Rusher predicted a win for GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole this fall.

“If you force me to answer at this point, I would have to say it is President Clinton,” Rusher said, predicting that Clinton would win with about 45% of the vote.

Russo predicted Dole winning 46% of the vote.

Nofziger gave Dole the win by “somewhere between a half percent and 1%.”

And Pringle? “I don’t ever bet against my heart, so I will say Dole.” He believes Clinton hit a ceiling of 43% in 1992, and Dole will get “a little bit more than that.”

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Mickey’s prodigy: Retiring Assemblyman Mickey Conroy (R-Orange) spent a relatively short stint in Sacramento, but he is leaving lots of political offspring. More than half a dozen youthful former Conroy staffers have taken jobs with other legislators. And now one of them is running for political office himself.

Chris Manson, Conroy’s chief of staff, is in a seven-person race for two seats on the City Council in rural Dixon (pop. 6,000), just outside of Sacramento. Manson predicts he’ll sweep to victory on the strength of name identification he earned while leading a successful fight last spring against a parcel tax defeated nearly 3 to 1 at the polls.

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Fund-raiser of the week: State Sen. Ross Johnson (R-Newport Beach) was feted by 600 friends, business leaders and political pals at a big fund-raiser Wednesday night at the Hyatt Regency in Irvine. Johnson’s campaign raised at least $90,000 at the event, which was attended by the entire Orange County legislative delegation to Sacramento.

When Johnson was elected to the Senate in 1995, moving up from the Assembly in an expensive race against then-Assemblywoman Doris Allen of Cypress, GOP leaders figured he would be able to raise money along Orange County’s Gold Coast to help Republicans around the state.

While he is giving money to other Republicans, “Ross is definitely not a net giver yet,” said spokesman Dennis Brown. That is largely because Johnson had to fight off a stiff primary challenge from former Assemblyman Gil Ferguson this past spring.

Ross Johnson Money Line

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1995 1996 * Beginning cash balance $213,201 $121,621 Raised 449,490 216,038 Spent 694,145 285,075 Cash balance 13,697 4,234 Outstanding debt ** 94,000 118,559

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* Through June 30

** Includes loans and unpaid bills

Source: Ross Johnson campaign spending reports

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Cash on hand: There is $45,000 in campaign cash available to local Democratic candidates just for the asking, thanks to the second Truman Award Dinner held earlier this month.

A political action committee has been formed to hand out the cash and candidates must make their own pitch for donations, said Jeanne Costales, the party central committee’s former vice chair who founded the event. Each committee member gets one vote on how to spend the money.

“It should take us about a week to 10 days” to decide who gets how much, Costales said last Wednesday. “Obviously we are going to be looking for the most bang for our buck.”

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Capizzi hunting: Is anyone going to take up the challenge and run against Republican Michael R. Capizzi for district attorney?

At least one conservative Republican leader, GOP Party Vice Chairman Michael Schroeder, has called for Capizzi to resign over the indictment of Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R-Huntington Beach). And Baugh’s political mentor, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach), is actively shopping for someone to run for the office in 1998, whether Capizzi decides to seek reelection or not.

Last week, Superior Court Judge James L. Smith tossed out 17 of the 22 counts in the campaign fraud case against Baugh. Supporters said it proved Baugh’s innocence. Prosecutors called it a ruling on technical legal issues and vowed to reinstate the charges.

Is Baugh, himself a lawyer, interested in becoming district attorney? “I’m not thinking of that at all, now,” Baugh said at the courthouse this week. “I have other things on my mind.”

Compiled by Times political writer Peter M. Warren with contributions from staff writers Eric Bailey and Len Hall.

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