A Hot Issue That Leaves Many Cold

The accepted wisdom--indeed, the anecdotal evidence--is that the anti-affirmative action initiative on the November ballot is a political dud.

Oh, it will pass all right, say the experts. But as Republican campaign consultant Richard Temple observes, “People aren’t getting up in the morning and saying, ‘I’m really mad about quotas.’ ”

One prominent GOP activist told me, “I’ll vote for it, but I really don’t care. Nobody cares.”

As a political wedge, Proposition 209 is looking pretty dull; rather than a hot button, it feels like body temperature. So far, it isn’t helping or hurting candidates. Neither does it appear to be an issue that will draw apathetic voters to the polls.

A minority view, not surprisingly, is held by Gov. Pete Wilson, a past master at using wedge issues that divide and define politicians (death penalty, illegal immigration). Wilson says 209 still has the potential to be a cutting issue that benefits candidates who warmly embrace it.

“I think it’s got some real resonance,” he told me. “I think it’s going to win fairly handily. And I’ll tell you why. It’s simple:

“People by and large think it is wrong to engage in [racial] preferences because they see that as what it is. It’s discrimination. They didn’t like discrimination and they don’t like reverse discrimination. What they really can’t abide is the unfairness of someone being excluded because they’re not in the politically correct group. It’s divisive as hell.”

The governor added, “People are understandably and properly outraged and they do demand change. And I assume they’re going to [vote for candidates] who are on their side.”

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Not necessarily, other pols say. Many still are uncertain how 209 will play out. Some even see land mines.

GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole, whose California chairman is Wilson, decided after an internal strategy debate not to emphasize 209. “I think he concluded it was too divisive and he was uncomfortable with it,” says one insider.

Both Dole and running mate Jack Kemp have endorsed 209, but their support has been muted.

Likewise with many Republican congressional and legislative candidates.

Rep. Andrea Seastrand, a conservative running in a very tight race in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, hasn’t even taken a stand on 209. Although she opposes quotas--as does virtually every politician--the congresswoman contends 209 is a state issue that doesn’t involve her national bailiwick.

“I love that argument,” responds 209 spokesperson Jennifer Nelson. “That’s so weak. They’re scared and they’re going to play it really safe.”

But Seastrand’s liberal Democratic challenger, UC Santa Barbara professor Walter Capps, also has been cautious. He opposes 209, if asked, but quickly adds that affirmative action “needs correcting.” For example, he says, “set aside” preferences should be eliminated in government contracting.

Proposition 209 would ban racial and gender preferences in public contracting, hiring and university admissions.

A recent Times poll found registered voters favoring the measure by 60% to 25%. That seems the precursor of a landslide. But there were mixed signals. Half those surveyed, when initially queried, had not heard of the initiative. And when asked whether affirmative action should be continued or eliminated, the vote for scrapping it was just 50% to 40%.

“I never felt [209] had anywhere near the emotion of 187,” Assembly Speaker Curt Pringle (R-Garden Grove) recently said, referring to the initiative aimed at illegal immigration. “I never felt it was a get-out-the-vote tool [for Republicans]. It may well be a get-out-the-vote tool for Democrats in minority communities.”

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There are several reasons 209 hasn’t grabbed voters like 187 did, political pros note:

* There’s nothing illegal about affirmative action.

* It’s not costing taxpayers billions for public services.

* Beneficiaries of racial and gender preferences aren’t blamed for crime and graffiti.

* Big business, with its own affirmative action programs, is very leery.

* Neither side is bombarding voters with TV ads, as Wilson did for 187.

Also, asserts Tony Quinn, a GOP guru who tracks legislative races as editor of the Target Book: “A lot of voters are against 209 because they associate it with Wilson.”

The governor is unfazed. There’s “a relatively silent majority” out there who agree with him, he says. Many probably even “are lying to pollsters” because they don’t want to be considered “politically incorrect.”

It does seem improbable that an initiative campaign rooted in such an emotional issue as race will remain this quiet through election day.