Dole’s Debate Strategy: Apply the Liberal Label

The give and take in the presidential campaign’s first debate Sunday night will be largely shaped by a revealing alteration in the strategy of the Republican challenger.

As they map their strategy for Sunday’s debate--the first of two scheduled between the candidates--aides say Bob Dole plans to shift his emphasis from the tax-cutting economic message that initially had been counted on to carry him to victory to his recent effort to depict President Clinton as a committed liberal on a range of issues from drugs and crime to taxing and spending.

Within the GOP camp, however, some doubt the usefulness of that strategy--most notably vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp. A senior source familiar with Kemp’s thinking said late Wednesday that the vice presidential candidate thinks the campaign is devoting too much attention to attacking Clinton and not enough to describing what Dole might do if elected.

Asked how soon the campaign might turn away from the “Clinton-is-a-liberal” theme, the source said, simply, “Soon, I hope.”

That seems unlikely. Dole “has got to unmask Clinton as a true liberal,” said Republican pollster Fred Steeper, a veteran of the Reagan and Bush presidential campaigns and a member of Dole’s outside consultant team whose views on the issue reflect those of Dole’s top advisors.

Meanwhile, Clinton has few strategic concerns. One prominent pollster for Democratic congressional leaders, Mark Mellman, put the president’s strategy simply: just “show up.”

“Obviously, Dole needs to get more out of this than we do,” said another Democratic strategist, Doug Sosnik, White House director of political affairs.

One fear among Democrats, however, is that Clinton, who is known for his outbursts of temper in private, could be goaded by Dole into an excessive public reaction.

“I think his [Clinton’s] area of vulnerability is that he will be tempted to trade jabs with Dole,” said Dick Morris, Clinton’s erstwhile strategist who resigned during the Democratic convention because of a personal scandal. “If he does that, he will win the fight but hurt himself in the election.”

Republican strategists may hope to provoke such an outburst by turning up the heat on Clinton. In any case, Dole aides believe they have little choice.

“A lot of voters don’t yet think Clinton is a real liberal on some of the key issues, such as taxing, spending and welfare,” said Steeper.

Indeed, polls show most voters do not believe Clinton is driven by ideology of left or right. Particularly since his signing of a massive, and quite conservative, welfare reform bill, Clinton’s supporters see him as pragmatic, his critics as expedient, but few see him as a consistent advocate of liberal principle. That poses a serious hurdle for Dole’s argument.

Another problem is that because of public resentment of political name-calling, aggressiveness poses a risk for Dole. “The problem for Dole is that attacking Clinton will increase his own negatives,” said Kathleen Jamieson, dean of the Annenberg School of Communication at the University of Pennsylvania and a specialist in campaign rhetoric and debates.

Dole bears the burden of carrying the fight to the president in the debate in large part because his plan for improving the economy has, so far, failed to catch on with voters. Polls and voter interviews consistently have shown that most voters--often even those at Dole’s rallies--simply do not believe his promise to simultaneously cut taxes, balance the budget and spare major government programs is credible.

Dole strategists argue that their denunciations of Clinton as a liberal are not a digression from the economic message, but rather an effort to reinforce it. “It’s not enough to make the case to voters that we are going to cut their taxes,” said John Buckley, communications director of the Dole campaign.

“What we’ve got to do is make it so sure that for every American, when they hear Clinton talking about his tax-cut plans, it immediately jumps into their minds that Clinton has promised this before and he didn’t deliver.”

With their confidence buttressed by a recent spate of favorable economic news showing low inflation and strong growth, Democrats profess to be unworried about such tactics.

Clinton does have some potential vulnerabilities, however. Morris, for one, continues to worry about voter reaction to the tangle of questions surrounding the Whitewater affair.

Clinton “has to stay out of trouble on Whitewater questions,” Morris said. “I think right now Whitewater doesn’t matter to people. They don’t perceive it as being Clinton’s scandal. And they feel his attackers are motivated by partisanship. On the other hand, if he is asked a direct question and handles it poorly. He could hurt himself badly.”

One possible area of trouble on that subject could arise if PBS newscaster Jim Lehrer, who will moderate the 90-minute session, follows up on a question he asked Clinton last week in an interview about whether he might pardon his former Whitewater partner, Susan McDougal.

McDougal faces two years in prison for felonies linked to the financing of the Whitewater development. She has so far refused to cooperate with prosecutors seeking further information about whether Clinton’s statements on the subject were truthful.

When Lehrer asked Clinton about a possible pardon, the president did not flatly rule one out, and “if Clinton is asked about a pardon again, the answer to that could hurt him,” Jamieson said.

The same polls that show Clinton well ahead of Dole also indicate that voters have more regard for Dole’s integrity than for Clinton’s. For many voters, the continued questions about Whitewater symbolize those doubts about Clinton’s trustworthiness.

Dole’s advisors hope to exploit that weakness in the debate, but only indirectly. Rather than ask bluntly about Whitewater, they are hoping Dole can challenge Clinton’s integrity by questioning him on alleged contradictions between his policy statements and his performance.

“Our belief is that going frontally at Clinton on character is not the right way to approach this,” said Buckley. “The only door that you can open to get to Clinton’s character, so far as we’re concerned, is a door that relates directly to substance and policy and the difference between promise and reality.”

Still, Buckley’s chief concern is not with Clinton, but with Dole and the need for him to make clear to voters why they should choose him for the White House.

“This is something that the challenger has to make the case on every day,” Buckley said. “And we are clearly not at the place where he has made the sale. But we’ve got five weeks and two debates to go.”

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