Will Dole Go All-Out for California?

Pollster Mervin Field, a California institution, has been one of the most widely mentioned people in American politics the past week. His poll showing that Bob Dole has cut President Clinton’s California lead in half infused new hope in the underdog candidate and inspired a vow to compete all-out in the state. But on Tuesday, Field stood before an audience and cautioned that this particular poll really was insignificant.

Don’t get excited about it, he advised the Sacramento Press Club. The poll--providing sorely needed fodder for political pundits--showed Clinton’s lead narrowing to 10 points (48%-38%) as of Oct. 9, down from 22 in early September. But there’s “no momentum” here for Dole, Field asserted.

Look at when the earlier poll was taken, he noted. It was right after the Democratic convention and reflected a temporary “bounce” for Clinton that inflated his true support. Similarly, Dole had gotten a bounce from the Republican convention that had reduced Clinton’s lead then to 10 points. These polls have been bouncing up and down all year, but the president always has been ahead by double digits, based on Field polls.

People know these guys and practically everybody already has decided whom to vote for, the veteran pollster said. Women are supporting Clinton by 20 points and men are splitting about evenly.

As for Dole’s new attack on the president’s character, he said, “The public knows Bill Clinton. They have a lot of reservations about him. But they’re voting for him because they feel he’s closest to them on issues. . . . The public is willing to forgive Clinton for all the sins they know about today.”

One other thing, Field added: No presidential candidate ever has come from this far behind this close to an election and carried California.

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But for Dole, the latest Field poll reaffirms what his private surveys show, that he is gaining ground. In fact, his own poll has him closing the gap to eight points. (Clinton surveys, meanwhile, show the president running 14 points ahead.)

Dole insiders say their candidate has decided to make a big run for it in the state that offers one fifth of the electoral votes needed to win. “He’s going to put it all on the line in California,” one asserts.

At a strategy meeting in San Diego on Wednesday, state campaign leaders reportedly were told of plans to spend at least $4 million on TV ads and half the candidate’s time in California until election day.

“There’s a lot of lying going on,” cautions one Republican consultant, referring to both campaigns. “This is a chess game now. If you can get a couple days’ jump on your opponent before he figures out what you’re really going to do, it could mean the difference in getting [the necessary] 270 electoral votes. It’s crunch time.”

“No, no, no--this is for real,” insists GOP state chairman John Herrington.

The party leader also says that after months of hard prodding, especially by Gov. Pete Wilson, Dole has agreed to “embrace wholeheartedly” Proposition 209, the anti-affirmative action initiative.

Some doubt 209 will help Dole. “I don’t think it’s the kind of issue that’s going to drive voters one way or the other,” says Sacramento attorney Steven Merksamer, an early Dole advisor. “But California is very winnable if he gives the state not just money, but energy. Voters want inspiration.”

Others privately see little hope.

“A prayer is about all he’s got,” says a big-county Republican leader. “Dole can’t get around his age. That’s the bottom line.”

An influential GOP legislator says, “It’s going to tighten, but he’s going to lose. [Speaker Newt] Gingrich scared the bejesus out of Democrats. And people are better off today than they were four years ago.”

The GOP consultant: “Dole has to find a message he sticks with for more than a couple of days. Like, ‘Bob Dole is a man who’s going to. . . ‘ and finish the sentence.”

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Here’s a suggestion: “. . . cut taxes and balance the budget. Trust me.”

Then be innovative. Return to the U.S. Treasury what’s left of the $62 million in tax money provided for the campaign. Call it earnest money on budget balancing.

Quit campaigning; he’s not very good at it anyway. Cancel those TV ads; they’re just going to get lost in all the other pre-election clutter.

Release the hordes of Secret Service agents. Send home all but a couple of staff needed to answer one phone.

Fly back commercial coach to the Watergate apartment. Sit for interviews. Accept invitations from talk shows and C-Span. They won’t stop. Neither will the attention.

Believable Bob. In the next Field Poll, his “favorables” would soar and there could be real momentum.