New Citizens From Latin America Back Clinton, Poll Finds

New U.S. citizens of Latin American ancestry overwhelmingly favor the Democratic Party, and a whopping majority, more than eight in 10, support the reelection of President Clinton, according to a new poll of Latino voters in California.

The results are among the first indications of how the record number of people taking the citizenship oath this year--more than 300,000 in Southern California alone--will probably vote next month.

More than one-third of the 1 million new citizens who are expected to be naturalized this year reside in California, and most are Latino.

The nonpartisan poll of more than 500 eligible Latino voters indicated that California Latinos overall will vote for President Clinton in landslide proportions--and new citizens will lead the anticipated pro-Democratic groundswell.

With election day less than two weeks away, Clinton’s strong statewide support from Latinos could help put the president over the top in a tight contest, said Harry Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute. The institute, a Latino think tank affiliated with the Claremont Graduate School, commissioned the telephone poll, conducted in Spanish and English from Oct. 10 to Oct. 16.

“If you’re talking about a 50%-48% race, the Latino electorate is in a position to be a swing vote,” Pachon said. A Los Angeles Times poll released today shows Clinton with a 20-point lead over Dole in California.

The poll found that new citizens--those naturalized since 1992--tend to be even more ardently pro-Democratic than more established Latinos.

Almost 85% of newly naturalized Latino citizens plan to vote for Clinton, compared to fewer than 5% for Bob Dole--a staggering 17-1 margin, the poll showed. Among all Latino voters in California, the poll found, 71% intend to vote for Clinton.

Citizens who have taken the oath since 1992 already account for about one in five eligible Latino voters in California, according to the new poll.

However, analysts note that Latinos--who make up one-fourth of California’s population--are usually underrepresented in elections, accounting for about 9% of voters two years ago. The Latino population still includes massive numbers of noncitizens ineligible to vote, and tends to be younger, poorer and less well-educated than the majority, all factors that deflate voter turnout.

Behind the likely pro-Democratic Latino tide, poll organizers say, are pervasive fears generated by Proposition 187 and other measures perceived by many as anti-Latino. Those overriding preoccupations have helped sway a population of new citizens--often socially conservative, hard-working and religious--that a few years ago was considered politically “up for grabs,” Pachon said.

The trends are not propitious for Republicans, some of whom have already accused the Clinton administration of improperly expediting the naturalization process in a partisan effort to sign up more Democrats. The White House has denied any wrongdoing.

The poll comes at a time when some moderate Republicans have voiced fears that the party, under the leadership of Gov. Pete Wilson, is becoming too closely identified with policies perceived as anti-immigrant. Wilson has spoken strongly in favor of legal immigrants, but the new survey indicates an unease even among U.S. citizens of Latino backgrounds.

“Many of us are concerned that the Republican Party is being tainted as an ‘anti-immigration’ party, not an ‘anti-illegal immigration’ party,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a Los Angeles-based GOP political consultant. “There is a concern that going for short-term gains can have long-term implications.”

On another issue, the new poll found that Latino voters--presumed by many to be solidly against Proposition 209--lack information about the anti-affirmative action initiative.

A surprising 70% of the Latino citizenry reports being undecided or having no opinion on the matter. The results underscore how neither advocates nor opponents of the measure have yet communicated their messages effectively to Latinos, said Gary Segura, a political scientist at Claremont Graduate School.

Nationwide, the pool of Latino registered voters has surged by almost 1.5 million since 1992, a record 28.7% bump, according to the Southwest Voter Research Institute, which studies Latino electoral trends. Almost half of the increase occurred in California, where, the institute found, the number of new Latino registered voters has jumped by 44.7% since 1992.

Behind the rise are the skyrocketing citizenship sign-ups of recent years, which have broken all previous national totals.