County Unemployment Rate Drops to a 4-Month Low

Fueled by a sharp rise in education-related jobs, Ventura County’s unemployment rate fell in October to its lowest point in four months, according to a report released Friday by the state’s Employment Development Department.

The monthly report showed the county’s jobless rate at an estimated 6.9% at the end of October, down from 8.2% a month earlier. The rate stood at 7.6% in October 1995.

Last month’s employment figures, which show an increase of 2,900 nonfarm jobs from a year ago, are a further sign that the county’s economy continues to expand, analysts said.

Local education payrolls, which grow annually in the months following the beginning of the school year, surged by 2,800 jobs in October--following a 900-job gain in September--and are now 12.7% larger than a year ago.

“There is a seasonal gain there that is typical at this time of the year,” said Doug Perron, a labor analyst with the state’s job office in Santa Barbara. “But we are seeing a much larger than expected job gain than in a typical school year.”

Perron said surging school enrollment and a statewide plan to reduce class sizes in kindergarten through third grades are largely responsible for the employment gains in education.

And the education sector is expected to continue to grow over the next few months, said Stan Mantooth, assistant superintendent of business and personnel services at the Ventura County superintendent of schools office.

“Our last survey shows that we have a need for an additional 377 teachers to complete the class size reduction plan [across the county],” he said. “Some districts will not implement class size reduction until February.”

Overall, the October employment figures show that the rate of job creation is beginning to accelerate, said Mark Schniepp, director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, which tracks the Ventura County economy.

“We’ve created [almost] 3,000 jobs [in a year]. That’s good to see,” Schniepp said. “It does tend to stop the trend of declining job growth that we saw between February and September. It’s subtle but it does help.”

Schniepp said the October figures alone are not enough to declare an end to the year’s sluggish job creation rate. “It’s a moderately positive report,” he said.

Overall, government payrolls showed a net gain of 1,500 jobs in the last year, largely the result of adding 2,100 local education jobs while losing 500 federal jobs.

Employment was up across most sectors of the economy with service sector jobs up by 1,000, retail trade up by 900 jobs and construction up by 400 jobs. The farm payrolls created 700 new jobs in the last year.

“These are very good indications that the economy is still expanding at a substantial rate,” Perron said.

Bolstered by a rise in consumer confidence, the work force of the county’s merchants and shopkeepers, which grew in October, is particularly strong, Perron said.

“We hadn’t seen retail hiring in October since before the recession,” he said. “And we expect to see more of that [during the holidays].”

“Across the board, there are very few negatives,” Schniepp added.

One cause for concern, according to Perron, is a slight decline in typically high-paying manufacturing jobs.

The manufacturing sector posted a yearly decline of about 100 jobs, which is largely due to the loss of 400 nondurable goods jobs in the apparel and food processing industries. Durable goods manufacturing actually grew by 300 jobs.

While the county has lost about 200 high-tech manufacturing jobs during the past 12 months, Schniepp said that the high-tech industry is going through a regional turnaround and could be improving in Ventura County in the next few months.

The telecommunications and mining sectors each lost about 400 jobs in the last year.

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Ventura County Jobless Rate

October 1996: 6.9%

Annual Rates

1995: 7.4%

1994: 7.9%

1993: 8.8%

1992: 8.8%

Source: California Employment Development Department