Latino Power Pushed Sanchez Past Dornan

Democrat Loretta Sanchez, who narrowly defeated veteran Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove), apparently benefited from a dramatic increase in the power of the Latino vote in the last four years, according to a Times analysis of electoral results.

More Latinos and Vietnamese registered to vote and went to the polls in the 46th Congressional District than in 1992, while participation by other voters--predominantly whites--was significantly lower.

Latinos comprised 20% of all voters in the district in this election, where four years ago, during the last presidential contest, they made up less than 14%. Vietnamese voting also increased from 4.4% to 8.9% of voters.

Perhaps even more significant, though the predominantly white voting bloc still dominated the electorate, its influence appears on the wane. This group comprised 82% of the vote in 1992, but 71% this year.

The analysis was drawn from final voting results released this week by the county registrar of voters on computer tapes. Latino and Vietnamese voters were identified by surnames, the most commonly accepted method for determining voter ethnicity.

The apparent shift in voting blocs not only helped Sanchez, but it also boosted President Clinton, who carried the central Orange County district that he failed to win in 1992.

Dornan won the seat, which represents much of Santa Ana, Anaheim and Garden Grove, by slightly more than 10,000 votes in 1992, but lost to Sanchez this year by 984 votes. Clinton lost the district to then-President George Bush in 1992 by 3,337 votes, but topped GOP nominee Bob Dole by 8,550 votes last month.

While Clinton did better in the 46th District than down-ticket Democrat Sanchez, drawing 51,330 votes to her 47,964, the reverse was true on the Republican side of the ballot. Dornan received 46,980 votes in the district to Dole’s 42,780.

Another factor in the outcome of the Dornan-Sanchez race was a sharp decline in voter interest, as reflected in the number who actually voted, which was down overall by some 16,000 votes from four years ago. But at the same time, the numbers were up among the predominantly Democratic Latinos and the Vietnamese who are registering in increasing numbers outside their home in the Republican Party.

The number of Latinos who voted increased from 16,663 in 1992 to 21,140 this year, with Latino Democratic voters outnumbering Latino Republicans by a ratio of more than 3 to 1. The Vietnamese vote was up from 5,287 to 9,281. Significantly, much of the Vietnamese increase--some 2,900--was among Democrats, independents and minor party voters.

At the same time, the number of voters among the predominantly white group fell from 98,786 to 73,851. Republicans comprised 48.5% of this group, while Democrats made up 40%, with the balance coming among independents and other voters.

The power of the Latino vote did not come from an increase in the percentage of Latinos who turned out to vote, but rather from the dramatic rise in Latino registration. Latinos, who comprise slightly more then 50% of all residents in the district, have been a largely untapped voting group.

But in the last year, record numbers of Latino immigrants have become citizens and many immediately registered to vote. Many new citizens said they were responding to increasing anti-immigrant rhetoric, and some feared they would lose benefits under more restrictive policies.

Also, the first wave of undocumented immigrants who became legal under a 1986 immigration law commonly known as the Amnesty Act became eligible for citizenship this year.

Several groups and political campaigns worked hard within the 46th District to register the new citizens as voters, and encouraged them to go to the polls or fill out absentee ballots.

As a result, Latino registration rose slightly more than 30%, from 30,289 in 1992 to 39,472 this year. Turnout among this voting group, however, dropped slightly from 55% to 54%. The turnout for all voters in the district was 61%.

Among Vietnamese, the registration figures were up almost 70%, from 9,547 in 1992 to 16,077 this year. Turnout for this ethnic minority was up from 55% to 58%.

However, among the largely white other voters, registration dropped 13% to 117,793. Adding to the decline in this group’s impact was its drop in turnout from 73% to 63%.

Finally, there was little change since 1992 in turnout among Republicans and Democrats. Four years ago, 46% of the voters in the district were Democrats, while this year they comprised 45% of voters. Republicans were 44% in 1992, and this year were 42.6%.

Interestingly, the drop-off in down-ticket voting--those who vote for president but not in the congressional race--was much smaller this year. In 1992, almost 11,000 voters cast no ballot in the contest won by Dornan, while this year about 3,800 skipped voting in the race between Dornan and Sanchez.

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Latino Connection

Latino residents, heavily Democratic, registered in much higher numbers in the 46th Congressional District this year than in 1992. The percentage who turned out was about the same, but the number who voted was significantly greater. The other voters in the district--essentially whites, who are marginally Republican--registered in much lower numbers and turned out at a much lower rate than four years ago. The combination apparently doomed Rep. Robert. K. Dornan’s reelection bid.

Registration

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1992 1996 Latinos 30,289 39,472 Vietnamese 9,547 16,077 Other* 135,715 117,793 Share of Vote Latino 13.8% 20.3% Vietnamese 4.4% 8.9% Other* 81.8% 70.8% Turnout Latino 55.0% 53.6% Vietnamese 55.4% 57.7% Other* 72.8% 62.7%

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Political affiliation, 1996

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All Democrat Republican other Latino 68% 19% 13% Vietnamese 31% 46% 23% Other* 41% 45% 14%

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* Mostly whites

Source: Orange County registrar of voters

Researched by DICK LEWIS / For The Times