Forecast Says It May Rain on Their Parade

Nancy Ferber believes that God will protect us come New Year’s Day. This isn’t the first time, she says, that meteorologists have said there was a strong possibility of rain on the annual Tournament of Roses parade. Somehow, she says, it never seems to happen.

“I think God looks down on all of us,” Ferber, a spokeswoman for the Pasadena tournament, said Sunday. “I’m very optimistic,” despite the fact that weather forecasters Sunday put the odds of rain Wednesday at 50%.

Much of that optimism stems from the fact that Ferber, 37, and many of her colleagues were not yet born the last time it rained on the parade.

That was in 1955, when Ohio State beat USC, 20-7, in the Rose Bowl, and the bands were prohibited from playing on the muddy fields during halftime. All told, rain has fallen on the parade only nine times in its 108-year history. That and the seemingly miraculous near misses--such as in 1982, when the precipitation splashed right up until the lead trumpeters stepped onto the parade route--have combined to create a sort of article of faith among Southern Californians that the colorful New Year’s Day tradition has somehow been granted special heavenly dispensation with regard to the weather.

Dispensation or not, though, weather forecasters Sunday pointed to the strong possibility that the Rose Parade’s winning streak could come to an end this week. A trail of moisture from a fierce winter storm over Seattle, they say, will sweep through Southern California starting early today and linger through Thursday, with a 50% chance of on-and-off showers during any day of the week, including New Year’s.

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But will it rain on the parade? Difficult question, they say. “Our technology isn’t so accurate that we can say on a given time that it’s going to rain,” said Bruce Rockwell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “All we can say is there’s a lot of moisture around.”

And what of the parade’s remarkably rainless history? “January is the peak of the rainy season,” Rockwell said, “and we’re just fortunate it hasn’t rained on that day. There’s really no meteorological reason it shouldn’t rain. It just hasn’t.”

Organizers of the parade--whose hopeful theme this year is “Life’s Shining Moments”--say they aren’t doing much to prepare for the potential deluge that they wouldn’t be doing anyway. Float builders and transporters are, as usual, putting last-minute touches on their creations and preparing for the late-night trip Tuesday that will take the floats from the various warehouses and workshops in which they are stored to the parade route in Pasadena. And local law enforcement officials are making plans for the influx of the estimated 1 million people who Pasadena officials traditionally estimate come out to watch the parade from the city’s sidewalks.

“We won’t change anything because of the rain,” said Chris Vicino, a spokesman for the Pasadena Police Department. Although he has never experienced rain on New Year’s, Vicino said, he would expect its effect to be minimal. “If anything,” he said, “we will be less busy” because of thinner crowds.

Parade organizers insist that even a downpour wouldn’t thin the crowds, either in the streets or among the estimated 350 million people expected to watch the parade on television. Nor, they say, would it dampen the audience’s enthusiasm nor tarnish the image of the event, founded in 1888 to, in the words of founder Charles Frederick Holder, “tell the world about our paradise” in which “flowers are blooming and . . . oranges are about to bear.”

Yet they do admit to some concerns.

Heavy rains would probably cancel the annual ride around the field by tournament officials in antique cars before the Rose Bowl game, which this year pits Arizona State against Ohio State. It would also make it impossible for about 10,000 cars to park on a golf course and soccer field near the Rose Bowl stadium.

“If it rains real hard,” said game manager Bill Lewis, “we do a media blitz telling everyone to use public transportation, including buses and shuttles.”

And rain can definitely have a detrimental effect on the floats in the parade.

For one thing, designers say, the extra moisture can add more weight, likely to cause mechanical problems. This was a factor in previous rains, they say, during which one float lost a caster and didn’t finish the parade.

And sometimes the white glue--used to attach leaves and other items such as ground walnut shells and poppy seeds to floats--returns to its white color in the rain, giving the entire creation a different hue.

“It makes it look a little lighter than usual,” Ferber said.

Yet all things considered, she said, the potentially dark clouds of New Year’s have a silver lining.

“Rain makes the flowers glisten,” Ferber said. “These floats are covered in natural material. Flowers are grown outdoors, they’re used to the rain.”

Raul Rodriguez, who has designed 300 floats for the Rose Parade, including 18 for this year’s event, couldn’t agree more. “Rain and water is what brought about all the flowers that this parade is about,” he said. “It’s a circle; we need a little rain to keep everything going anyway.”

And Bill Flinn, the tournament’s chief operating officer, takes the ultimate optimist’s view. “The parade and God have had a pretty good relationship over the years,” he said. “If the rain comes, it comes. It will probably keep the floats fresher and we’ll have a great parade.”

Then there are the die-hards, those who--despite all evidence to the contrary--steadfastly refuse to even entertain the notion that the unthinkable could happen, that nature could embarrass itself by raining on an event aimed at celebrating its own glory.

One of them is Bill Leishman, 63, a retired tournament board member whose father and grandfather both served as presidents of the parade.

“It’ll never happen,” he said when told of the ominous weather forecasts. “I won’t allow it.”