Clinton’s Approval Rating Hits 61% as Gingrich Draws Ire

Bill Clinton’s popularity has soared to the highest levels of his presidency as a combination of good feelings about the state of the nation and support for his programs appears to be outweighing public concerns about how he financed his reelection, according to a new nationwide Los Angeles Times Poll.

The Republican-controlled Congress also scores relatively good marks in the poll. But the public’s good mood stops abruptly short of House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). Large majorities say they have an unfavorable view of him and believe that he should resign as speaker in the wake of his recent reprimand for misleading the House Ethics Committee about his use of tax-exempt funds for political purposes.

With Congress beginning debate over a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution, the public remains divided on the issue. Opinions are also sharply split on the long-term issues of how best to handle the financial problems of the Medicare and Social Security systems.

But on at least one budgetary issue of considerable importance to California, public opinion appears strongly on Clinton’s side. By 56% to 38%, those polled agree with Clinton that Congress should restore food stamps and other benefits to legal immigrants who face a cutoff under the terms of last year’s welfare reform law. That sentiment holds true across the country but is strongest in the West, where a 2-1 majority favors restoring the benefits.

By 61% to 34%, respondents had a positive view of Clinton’s job performance--his previous highest approval rating in a Times Poll was 58% when he was first sworn into office. By 43% to 34%, those polled believe Clinton has better ideas than congressional Republicans for handling the country’s major problems--the first time that has been true since the GOP takeover of Capitol Hill.

Asked to evaluate how Congress is doing its job, the public divides evenly, 46% to 46%. Self-described conservatives narrowly approve of Congress, which is dominated by conservative Republicans, while non-conservatives disapprove by a small margin. Those marks, although not as good as Clinton’s, are a sharp turnaround from the overwhelming disdain the public had expressed for Congress in the past.

Gingrich, however, lags far behind his fellow legislators. By 58% to 22%, respondents have an unfavorable impression of him, with even conservatives viewing him negatively--49% to 33%. By 60% to 35%, those polled say they believe that he should resign as speaker. By 61% to 31%, they reject Gingrich’s claim that he has been singled out for censure because he is a conservative Republican, with only 47% of fellow conservatives agreeing. And by a huge 83%-to-9% margin, those polled say Gingrich should use his own money, not campaign funds, to come up with the $300,000 the House ordered him to pay as part of the punishment in his ethics case.

The Times Poll, supervised by Acting Poll Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 816 adults nationwide Feb. 5-6. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Those polled have few illusions about their elected officials: A 49% plurality does not believe that either major party really wants to reform campaign finances, for example, and large majorities are skeptical about politicians’ promises to work in a bipartisan manner, balance the federal budget or make great progress on major national problems.

But in a time of limited expectations, the public appears generally satisfied with the performance of its political leadership.

Clinton does face a potential problem over the financing of his campaign last year. By 47% to 44%, those polled say the Democrats’ improper receipt of contributions from foreign nationals was a serious matter, not an innocent mistake, as Democratic officials have asserted. And respondents are almost evenly divided on whether Clinton knew at the time that the party was taking in potentially illegal money, with 43% saying he knew, 44% saying he did not and 13% saying they are unsure.

If Clinton did know, 72% say that would be a problem for the administration, with 33% calling it a very serious problem. Only 26% say it would not be a problem.

“If more comes out about the situation, this is something that is potentially threatening to Clinton,” Pinkus said.

Still, at this point, only 26% say they believe that Clinton is less ethical than most other modern-day presidents, with 56% saying his ethics are about the same as his predecessors and 16% calling him more ethical. By 33% to 19%, those polled say he is more ethical than Gingrich, with 39% rating the two about the same.

During the past year, polls have found steadily improving public perceptions of the nation’s overall direction and its economy. That trend has continued in The Times Poll, with 61% saying the country is not in recession and 41% saying the country is moving in the right direction. Clinton receives some credit for that, with 38% saying the country is in “better shape” because of his performance in office and only 14% saying he has made things worse. A plurality, 46%, say he has not made much difference one way or the other.

Economic problems have dramatically receded in the public mind since Clinton first took office, and only 7% say the economy should be one of Clinton’s top two priorities.

By contrast, the president’s emphasis on education seems well chosen--no surprise, given how carefully the White House uses its own polls to help decide which issues to emphasize. When people were asked to name two priorities Clinton should pursue, education was the most frequently cited response at 35%. No other priority was close, with improving health care (13%), reducing crime (12%) and handling welfare reform (11%) lagging far behind. Two issues stressed by Republicans--balancing the federal budget (17%) and lowering taxes (6%)--also received limited support. Almost no one mentioned reforming campaign finances as a priority.

In another indication of how dramatically times have changed, national defense was cited only 1% of the time.

Respondents appeared generally positive, but cautious, about Clinton’s ability to get his programs passed. Asked if his programs likely would help their families, 46% said they would help “some” or “a lot.” But overwhelmingly those polled said they believe that Clinton will be able to achieve only some or a few of his goals. Only 7% believe that he can accomplish many of his goals, and 6% predict that he will achieve none.

That skepticism may provide Clinton an opportunity to benefit by exceeding expectations. For example, by 52% to 38%, those polled said they do not believe that Clinton will be able to make significant reductions in the federal budget deficit. But analysts in both parties believe that Clinton does stand a good chance of accomplishing that goal. He has already presided over cutting the deficit in half, and even Republican analysts said last week that the budget he submitted Thursday would shrink the deficit dramatically during the next five years.

On several major budget-related issues, however, the public’s own split views are likely to continue to make political compromises difficult.

The proposed constitutional amendment to require a balanced budget offers one example.

Just more than a third of those polled opposes the amendment under any circumstances. A smaller group, 17%, supports the amendment down the line.

Those in the crucial swing constituency, 39%, say they would support the amendment unless they believe that passing it might cause cuts in Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

With the amendment now being debated in the Senate, Clinton and congressional Democrats have been playing to that concern--warning that if the amendment becomes part of the Constitution, a future president and Congress might find themselves with no choice but to cut Social Security and other benefits in case of an economic downturn. Those arguments already appear to have placed the proposed amendment in jeopardy, with congressional vote-counters saying it appears to now be short of the two-thirds majority needed for passage.

Regardless of whether a balanced budget is reached in the next few years, virtually all analysts agree that Social Security will hit a crisis point early in the next century when baby boomers now in their 40s and 50s begin to retire. Similar problems will plague the Medicare program, with the crisis point coming earlier. As the poll confirms, there is no public consensus on how to handle those problems.

By 64% to 29%, respondents continue to support Social Security even though most people who have not yet retired believe that the system will not be able to pay them all the benefits they have been promised. Only 13% of those polled said they believe that all the money they have been promised will be available when they retire. By comparison, 29% said they believe that no money will be left at all. The percentage who believe no money will be left is highest among the young, with 47% of adults younger than 30 holding that belief.

Recently, a federal advisory committee debated several possible ways of bolstering the Social Security system. So far, none of those alternatives seems to have majority support.

Only 40%, for example, said they favor an idea, pushed by business leaders and some Republican lawmakers, under which Social Security would guarantee a minimum benefit to retirees and most funds raised by payroll taxes would be turned over to individuals for them to invest on their own for their retirement. Fifty-three percent said they oppose the idea, and only 7% said they are uncertain--a very low percentage, reflecting the strong feelings that Americans have about Social Security.

Similarly, only 37% said they support the idea of having the government invest some Social Security funds in the stock market--a step that some advocate as a way of increasing the investment return for the Social Security trust fund. A 55% majority opposes that idea.

Age is a key factor in determining people’s views on the subject. Adults younger than 30 are considerably more likely to support the idea of private accounts, although even in that group opinion is split, 46% to 50%.

A third plan, proposed by two members of the advisory committee as a compromise, does have a narrow plurality of support, 49% to 44%. Under that plan, Social Security would be kept in place, but a new system of compulsory savings accounts would be added to it, financed by a new 1.6% payroll tax. Asked to rate each of the plans, however, only 19% said that compromise proposal would be their first choice.

On Medicare, both Clinton and Republican leaders agree that the program, which pays for medical coverage to those 65 and older, faces serious financial difficulties. But the public has not accepted that. Only 35% of respondents said they would describe Medicare’s overall financial health as weak, with 39% calling it strong or very strong, and 26% saying they did not know.

Perhaps as a result, the public supports very few of the ideas being put forward to reduce the cost of Medicare. The one idea the public does support is requiring retirees with above-average incomes to pay higher premiums--favored by 62% to 34%.

By 64% to 34%, those polled opposed a proposal to require all Medicare recipients to pay the first 25% of their medical bills, rather than the current 20%. And by 56% to 40%, they opposed the idea of inducing the elderly to join health maintenance organizations or other managed-care programs by requiring them to pay a higher share of doctor bills if they stay in traditional free-choice plans. In both cases, those findings are similar to the public view in a Times Poll two years ago.

By an overwhelming 71% to 24%, respondents opposed a more drastic idea: cutting off certain treatments, such as organ transplants or kidney dialysis, to patients who are older than 80. Such age-related cutoffs are common in many other countries.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Looking Ahead

How confident are you that the Democrats and Republicans in Congress will work together in a bipartisan way during the next two years?

Confident: 19%

Not confident: 78%

Don’t know: 3%

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Strong Grades

President Clinton’s job approval rating has soared to the highest levels of his presidency and a majority of Americans have a clear idea of where he wants to lead the country.

* President Clinton’s job approval rating:

Now

61% approve

34% disapprove

****

Clinton’s top priority in his second term should be: (Two replies accepted; top five responses shown.)

Education: 35%

Balanced budget: 17%

Health care: 13%

Crime: 12%

Welfare reform: 11%

****

Do you have a good idea where Clinton wants to lead the country?

*--*

Now January 1996 Yes, a good idea 54% 37% No, his goals aren’t clear 40% 57% Don’t know 6% 6%

*--*

****

Do you favor or oppose a balanced budget constitutional amendment? (If Favor:) What if it would mean cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid?

Favor it, but not if it means cuts: 39%

Favor it even if it means cuts: 17%

Oppose the amendment: 37%

Don’t know: 7%

****

In the next four years, will Clinton be able to . . .

Reduce the budget deficit?

No: 52%

Yes: 38%

Don’t know: 10%

*

Reduce the influence of lobbyists and special interests in Washington?

No: 59%

Yes: 25%

Don’t know: 16%

****

How confident are you that the Democrats and Republicans in Congress will work together in a bipartisan way during the next two years?

Confident: 19%

Not confident: 78%

Don’t know: 3%

****

The Democratic National Committee has been accused of accepting illegal campaign contributions from citizens of foreign countries. Democrats argue that the improper contributions were taken by mistake and have been returned.

* What do you think?

The Democrats have done something seriously wrong and were trying to get around the law: 47%

The Democrats made careless mistakes but were not trying to get around the law: 44%

Don’t know: 9%

****

Clinton knew about the improper contributions: 43%

Clinton didn’t know: 44%

Don’t know: 13%

****

If Clinton knew, it is . . .

A serious problem for Clinton’s administration: 72%

Not much of a problem: 26%

Don’t know: 2%

****

Agree or disagree

Clinton is selling the presidency to big contributors to the Democrats.

Agree: 43%

Disagree: 49%

Don’t know: 8%

Note: Numbers may not add to 100% where more than one response was accepted or where some answer categories are not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Polls

Times Poll data can also be accessed on the World Wide Web

https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 816 adults nationwide by telephone Feb. 5 and 6. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.