North Korea Loses a Top Man

At the moment, there is no way to know what impelled Hwang Jang Yop, a prominent member of the North Korean hierarchy, to seek political asylum in South Korea’s diplomatic mission in Beijing. The only evidence are several notes purportedly written by Hwang and released in South Korea, which suggest his profound disillusionment with the regime he served for so long and a patriotic interest in preventing a new conflict on the divided Korean peninsula. There is no way to know, either, how North Korea will react to the deep political humiliation it has suffered. Its official line is that Hwang was kidnapped, and it is putting great pressure on China not to let him leave Beijing for Seoul. If that fails, some violent, vengeful response can’t be ruled out.

Hwang, 73, has for decades been a core figure in Pyongyang. He is an architect of the late Kim Il Sung’s nationalistic Juche philosophy, was the tutor of current leader Kim Jong Il and is one of the leading lights of the ruling Workers’ (Communist) Party. He is, in sum, a man who knows more about how the regime works than any previous defector. North Korea has long been the world’s most closed, tightly controlled and secretive country. Only when food shortages in the last few years forced it to seek international aid have foreigners been able to get a better sense of conditions there. What Hwang knows could yield unparalleled insights into how Pyongyang’s leaders think and what is happening in the country.

His defection puts China in an excruciating position, torn between satisfying South Korea, with which it has a growing trade and investment relationship, and meeting the demands for his return from its once close ally North Korea. China may decide to do nothing for now, compelling Hwang to remain in the South Korean consulate in Beijing. Even then, his debriefing could yield an intelligence bonanza. The central question for Washington and Seoul is, of course, whether North Korea is sliding inexorably toward collapse. Hwang can’t give a definitive answer, but the answer he does give seems sure to be better informed than what anyone else has been able to offer.