Deal for Mobutu to Exit Takes Shape in Zaire

KINSHASA, Zaire — As rebel forces close in on this capital, a diplomatic deal is nearing completion to allow President Mobutu Sese Seko to retire in dignity and rebel leader Laurent Kabila to take over a transitional government without a battle, said a diplomatic source familiar with the negotiations Monday.

The bargain stems from the behind-the-scenes mediation effort undertaken in recent weeks by South African President Nelson Mandela, who hosted the first face-to-face meeting between Mobutu and Kabila on Sunday aboard a South African naval vessel. Mandela’s efforts have been supported by the United States, whose special envoy, Bill Richardson, has been active in the negotiations.

Although the meeting on the naval ship Outeniqua yielded little public result, and a news conference the same day was cut short, work toward an agreement actually is far advanced, with Mobutu on the verge of giving up the power he has wielded in Zaire since 1965, the source suggested.

“Mobutu is probably in single digits in terms of the days he’ll remain in power,” said the source, adding that the departure could come within days. Afterward, he said, a transitional government will be formed with Kabila at its helm.

The deal was not announced on Sunday partly because Mandela wants to protect Mobutu’s public image--so it would not appear that the proud elder Zairian had been forced to cave after just one encounter with Kabila, the source said.

Some diplomats remained skeptical that a fight can be avoided, noting that Mobutu could refuse in the end to step aside and that Kabila seems to be spoiling for a fight after more than three decades as an anti-Mobutu guerrilla.

The Zairian president, who at 66 is suffering from advanced prostate cancer, made no public statement after his return to Kinshasa on Monday from the ship moored in Pointe-Noire, Congo. With his entourage of about 50 aides and family members, he sped off to his palace inside a nearby military camp overlooking the Zaire River.

The source familiar with the ongoing discussions said that in exchange for Mobutu’s willing departure, Kabila’s forces would hold off an immediate assault on Kinshasa and enter the city in a peaceful, coordinated manner, sparing the population any violence.

“Clearly Kabila understands the need to just not drive on to the capital,” said the source. A nonviolent takeover would raise his standing in the eyes of the international community, the source added.

Those around Mobutu are urging him to prolong negotiations, at least until a promised second round of talks with Kabila within 10 days, to try to ensure their own political survival, said a European diplomat.

In contrast to Mobutu’s silence, Kabila issued a series of threatening ultimatums from his headquarters in the southeastern city of Lubumbashi. He also met there with Richardson, the U.S. envoy.

Kabila called on Mobutu and his family to leave the country now or be driven out in humiliation. He said his troops are only 40 miles from Kinshasa’s airport and will be able to occupy the capital’s suburbs by Wednesday.

“I once again appeal to Mobutu to hand over power peacefully to me, but if he does not do so, my forces are ready to enter Kinshasa in the next two to three days,” Kabila said Monday, according to news services. “He has to choose to relinquish power and [then] he is safeguarded, or he perishes with his power.”

For the average Zairian, a mood of doom and tension descended after Sunday’s talks seemed to fail, and people awaited the next fateful days. “Inevitably, we’ll suffer a lot,” said Zico, 20, a student whose parents are government functionaries.

For the first time in recent days, soldiers of Mobutu’s elite Special Presidential Division could be seen Monday morning pulling artillery pieces out of the city in the direction of the airport in an apparent show of readying defenses. Simultaneously, however, some members of Mobutu’s political party were reported boarding airplanes or taking boats across the Zaire River to escape, newspapers here said.

The rebels under Kabila have been assisted by Tutsi soldiers from Rwanda and received logistical support from Burundi, Uganda and Angola. Since they began the civil war in October to bring down Mobutu’s regime, they have made remarkable advances and encountered little resistance as unpaid and undertrained government troops most often ran away.

But diplomats warn that Kinshasa could be different, mainly because Mobutu’s troops have their backs against the wall and nowhere else to run. An attack on the city would bring chaos, one diplomat warned.

Richardson said he had come to see Kabila to “prepare a soft landing for Mr. Kabila’s rebels when they reach Kinshasa, a landing that avoids bloodshed and chaos.” He gave few details afterward, but said he was “very, very encouraged by Mr. Kabila’s tone of conciliation.”

The visit was the latest round of Richardson’s shuttle diplomacy. He visited Mobutu twice last week and on Sunday went to Rwanda to speak to that country’s strongman, Vice President and Defense Minister Paul Kagame.

Aides said Richardson plans next to meet with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, whose strong support was the springboard for Kabila’s rebellion.