HOLYFIELD WILL WIN

Because he’s bigger, because he’s savvier and because his total lack of doubt has triggered waves of panicky theatrics from Team Tyson these last few weird days, Evander Holyfield owns this fight.

And from his smart smile to his long overhand right to the nose, Holyfield owns Mike Tyson.

Tyson can hurt Holyfield, of course--Tyson can hurt anybody, and he hurt Holyfield at various times in their first meeting. If he lands four massive punches against anyone, you’re looking at a knockout.

Last November, Tyson came storming out at the opening bell and blasted Holyfield in the mouth with a classic left. It could have been Michael Spinks, 91 seconds, all over again.

And you know what? Holyfield, whose chin is the best this division has seen in a decade or more, took two steps backward, shook it off, bent his knees, and waded right back into the action. And the fight was his the rest of the night.

Tyson can change his style from his fruitless bull rush of the first fight, of course, and, with trainer Richie Giachetti back in his corner, find a better way to burst out of the clinches Holyfield used last time to buy time and frustrate him.

But Holyfield’s real philosophy against Tyson is less tricky: He will avoid the rushes, then hit Tyson hard every time there’s an opening.

Is Tyson going to keep stable and sure after the 11th time Holyfield whacks him to the side of his head?

“Mike Tyson has always been a one-dimensional fighter,” veteran trainer Emanuel Steward said. “There’s not too many layers to Mike Tyson. Evander can be hurt, you can penetrate one of his layers, and he’ll figure out a way to adapt, and he’ll come back at you.

“But if you get past the first layer of Mike Tyson, there’s not too much more there. When Mike’s been in dramatic, tough situations, he’s always faltered.”

Why will this time be any different than the two times--against Buster Douglas and in November--he has been taken to the brink, and toppled over?

It won’t, and the easiest way to figure that out is by the rising octaves of Tyson’s handlers as they squirmed their way toward tonight.

They know Tyson best. They know he’s not a vastly different person or fighter from the lunging, one-dimensional bomb thrower Holyfield knocked loopy last time, and they know the meal ticket could be ripped up for good.

So they’re edgy, they’re scrambling for excuses and searching for conspiracies.

And, in a surreal spectacle Thursday night before the Nevada State Athletic Commission, they cajoled Mitch Halpern, who did a fine job refereeing the first fight, into withdrawing from this fight because they feared for Tyson’s “mental readiness” if he had to deal with a reminder of the last loss.

We’re lucky they didn’t file a petition to ban Holyfield from throwing a right-hand punch, since, gee, Tyson is worried and uncomfortable about having an even playing field and there sure were a lot of rights bouncing off his face in November, and they hurt, remember?

Maybe Holyfield should wear 20-pound weights on his legs during the bout; or maybe he should be blindfolded and spun around at the start of each round, swatting at Tyson as he would a pinata at a birthday party.

“I truly believe we’re pretty much equal in ability and strength,” Holyfield said. “But I also know pressure bursts pipes. I thank God for giving me the peace of mind to overcome pressure. The difference between winning and losing is when pressure hits.”

Holyfield has been outlandishly loose and confident this week--working out to gospel music Friday, chatting amiably with the media afterward, long past the time when most fighters are hunkered down and walled off from the world at large.

But wasn’t Ali confident in Lewiston, Maine, before his rematch with Sonny Liston? If you’ve stared down the bully once, is there any reason to act as though you’re not sure you can do it again?

Prediction: Holyfield, by eighth-round knockout.

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TALE OF THE TAPE

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Holyfield Tyson Record 333 452 Knockouts 24 39 Age 34 30 Weight 218 218 Height 6-2 1/2 5-11 1/2 Reach 77 1/2 71 Chest (normal) 43 43 Chest (expanded) 45 45 Biceps 16 16 Forearm 12 1/2 14 Waist 32 34 Thigh 22 27 Calf 13 19 Neck 19 1/2 20 1/2 Wrist 7 1/2 8 Fist 12 1/2 13

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FIGHT INFO

When: Tonight

Where: MGM Grand Hotel, Las Vegas

TV: Pay-per-view, show begins at 6 p.m.