Population Surge of 18 Million Seen for State by 2025

A steady rise in births and a continuing stream of immigrants will add nearly 18 million people to California’s population by 2025--something akin to the entire state of New York moving in, according to the latest projections by the U.S. Census Bureau.

As the nation prepares for Census 2000, demographers are already predicting that the most populous state will continue to grow faster than any other, a trend that could affect everything from the water supply to the morning commute to the lines at the DMV.

“The sheen is back on the state of California,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County. “People are hearing about the economy coming back. We have become a magnet again for people looking to start careers, people who want to be where the jobs are.”

The census projections show that California residents will number 32.5 million in 2000, a relatively modest increase from the 1995 figure of 31.6 million. But demographers expect the population to surge at the start of the 21st century, hitting 49.3 million in 2025.

Although the numbers may sound ominous to some, the growth spurt--in percentage terms--is really no greater than what California has experienced since the end of World War II. But how much more an increasingly beleaguered infrastructure, crowded school districts, limited water supply and bursting prison system can stand is shaping up as the next-century challenge for policymakers from City Hall to Congress. And how ingenious they are in their solutions could determine the quality of life for Californians for decades to come.

“To survive and thrive in this new economy we are going to have to think strategically and act quickly, not just sit around and study the darn thing to death,” Kyser said. “These census numbers are a call to action--a fire alarm.”

Most of the new Californians will come from an anticipated 22 million births. The rest will result from immigration; more than one-third of all immigrants who come to the United States legally and otherwise through 2025 are expected to settle in California--nearly 9 million people. A portion of the total growth will be offset by deaths.

But state demographers who make forecasts of their own believe the federal projections could be a bit low, because it is difficult to get an accurate count of illegal immigrants. Also, the federal numbers assume a continued exodus of Californians to other states, a trend that started during the state’s recession but has reversed itself. Indeed, state officials say more people are again moving into California than are moving out.

Just as the recession slowed California’s growth, its much-vaunted recovery is expected to attract residents. The Census Bureau predicts that growth in the Northeast and Midwest will begin to slow down after 2000, just as the South and West pick up. California in particular will zoom, primarily the result of a healthier economy.

One of the state’s advantages, economists say, is a geography that is perfectly positioned to seize on burgeoning international markets. Additionally, the analysts expect the Golden State to draw the masses for the same reasons it always has--a stunning climate and a pioneer quality that attracts risk-takers and enables new industries to take root.

As a result, California should continue to shatter demographic records on a number of fronts, including the highest youth population (the census projects 33% of the citizenry will be under 20 years old in 2025) and the most elderly (13% over 65). That, in turn, will spell a growing demand for classrooms and elder care.

The great mystery is not whether the population will grow significantly, but how it will be dealt with. Economists and lawmakers warn that California is already behind in planning for its growth curve.

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Lulled by the recession, California’s priorities have been more immediate than long-range, with economic recovery, welfare reform and illegal immigration topping the list. The state needs to start thinking 25 years ahead, not 10, experts say.

“Think of what this means,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said in one of many recent speeches warning of an impending population explosion. “Will there be enough jobs, enough homes and apartments, enough classrooms for our kids?

“Will there be enough roads and health care? Will we have the ability to protect our environment, our farms, our mountains, our sea, our water, our air? These are the real questions we must be asking ourselves today in order to prepare for tomorrow, not who can we cut off and who can we get rid of.”

California has been growing by an average of 6 million people a decade for the past 30 years or so, and many agree that the state has handled the influx reasonably well. Even after the explosive 1980s, when the population grew by more than 500,000 annually at times, the quality of life improved in many ways.

“The air is cleaner than it was 10 years ago. The water is cleaner. You can get from place to place more quickly,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. “If we add 17 million people to California, will we be as dense as London, Paris or Tokyo? No way. California is an enormous state.”

Still, while demographers armed with historical data can forecast population surges, it is nearly impossible to predict where the newcomers will settle or how lifestyles will change. The ‘80s boom gave birth to far-flung suburbs like the Moreno Valley and trying hours-long commutes to Los Angeles. But in the next round, will towns build up or build out? Will blighted urban areas be resurrected? Will areas like south Orange County, which has built nearly to capacity, tolerate more growth?

“The Silicon Valley is in a raging boom now and what you get are complaints that lower-paid workers can’t afford housing, so they face a horrendous commute, which is destructive to families,” Kyser said. “There is no predicting where the growth will go.”

If the growth is well-managed, Californians might scarcely notice, so vast is the state’s geography. Some say what is needed is a visionary plan on par with the one conceived by the late Gov. Edmund G. “Pat” Brown Sr. During his eight-year tenure that ended in 1967, freeways were expanded, the state college system was created and the water supply was secured.

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Others say a joint effort by local, state and federal governments and the continued education of people to conserve resources and use space wisely will suffice.

“It’s not the population count, it’s the per capita consumption,” said Peter Morrison, demographer at Rand Corp. in Santa Monica. “If 17 million more people come to the state, that’s one thing. If none of them recycles, that makes it a bigger problem.”

Many economists focus on the inherent benefits of a population boom. Home values could soar again in some areas, generating more tax revenue that will bail out financially strapped cities and counties. Department stores such as Dillard’s, which recently appeared in Northern California, could move south. And the sizable youth population is good news for the apparel industry, forecasters said.

“If these projections hold true, the market will grow. This will be a promised land for retailers,” Kyser said. “If you are a major consumer service or retailer, you better get here quick.”

But if the growth is poorly handled, the resulting strain will probably fuel the anti-immigration sentiments California has already expressed.

“The feeling about immigrants is tied to how well we are able to absorb immigrants, whether from New York or Singapore,” said Feinstein aide Susan Kennedy. “What matters is our ability to house them, feed them, educate them and get them to work on freeways that move.”

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Future Spurt

By 2025 California’s population is expected to grow by about 18 million, with immigrants accounting for about 9 million of the projected 49.3 million total.

1995: 31.6

2000: 32.5

2010: 37.6

2020: 45.3

2030: 49.3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Growth by State

Here are rankings forprojected percentage change in state populations from 1995 to 2025:

Source: U.S. Census Bureau