Latest African Upheaval Puts Neighbors at Risk

The fighting that has rocked Congo, the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic in recent months follows a pattern of unrest plaguing much of the region, analysts say, noting that Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, Sudan and Uganda all have been riven by insurgencies and are struggling to avert more bloodshed.

The main ingredients contributing to the turmoil include ethnic divisions, stagnant economies (except in Uganda), refugees, hunger, poverty and the lack of effective crisis-intervention programs. “In all of these countries, there are problems that can be exploited,” said one U.S. official. “There is a built-in vulnerability.”

Analysts warn that upheaval in the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic could further destabilize the region, leading more refugees to flee to countries such as Tanzania and Zambia, which have so far managed to cling to stability. It could escalate the cross-border traffic in illegal weapons and further aggravate ethnic clashes.

Of equal importance, observers say, the unrest could undermine fragile democratic gains and reforms in countries such as Namibia, Eritrea, Ethiopia and South Africa. Crises in Africa, analysts note, often send shock waves far beyond the borders of an affected country.

Since the 1994 massacre of 500,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda, there has been a military coup in Burundi, continued combat in Angola and Uganda, an upsurge in fighting in Sudan’s civil war and a rebel takeover last May in Congo, which was then called Zaire.

Now it seems to be the turn for the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic.

“The problems have been brewing here for some time,” said Malik Chaka, director of research at the Washington-based Center for Democracy in Angola. “It just took a spark” to ignite.

A fragile truce is holding in the Central African Republic’s capital, Bangui, after more than a week of bloody clashes between an African peacekeeping force and mutinous government soldiers. The rebels have sought to topple civilian President Ange-Felix Patasse, and the peacekeepers have been in Bangui since January.

Meanwhile, in Brazzaville, capital of the Republic of Congo, fighting continued despite announcements that a peace deal had been struck there. Just weeks ago, Brazzaville served as a haven for hundreds fleeing the civil war in neighboring Zaire.

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Fighting erupted in Brazzaville on June 5 after government forces of President Pascal Lissouba surrounded the home of former military ruler Gen. Denis Sassou-Nguesso in an effort to disarm his militia. Lissouba said the action was part of a crackdown on private armies and illegal weapons. But Sassou-Nguesso’s supporters interpreted the move as an attempt by the president to spark trouble, delay scheduled July 27 presidential election and hold on to power.

Sassou-Nguesso, a former Marxist, ruled the Republic of Congo for 13 years before being defeated by Lissouba in multi-party elections in 1992. He and Brazzaville’s mayor, Bernard Kolesas, were to have been Lissouba’s main challengers in the now-postponed election.

Some analysts believe Sassou-Nguesso might have used the government’s attempt to crack down on militias as a pretext for hostilities. “He has an ax to grind, because he lost [the presidential election] a few years ago,” said Adonis Hoffman, senior fellow at the New York-based World Policy Institute.

Other observers blame Lissouba for failing to stamp out private armies long ago. These militias, formed during ethnic and political fighting in 1993, were officially dissolved two years later under a peace accord. But they continued to operate discreetly, making clashes inevitable.

There were other reasons for pessimism about a quick end to the conflict. Chief among these were reports that members of Rwanda’s former Hutu-led army and other Hutu extremists--together responsible for the 1994 genocide against Tutsis--along with remnants of the army of ousted Zairian dictator Mobutu Sese Seko were helping to fan the flames in Brazzaville.

These soldiers sought refuge and work as mercenaries after being chased from their own countries by Rwandan Tutsis and the rebel army of Laurent Kabila, now the self-proclaimed president of Congo.

As many as 3,000 people reportedly have been killed since the fighting began in Brazzaville.

Efforts toward a political solution have made little progress. The United Nations has been trying to recruit peacekeepers to separate the warring sides. But only Togo and Senegal have offered troops.

France--which is the Republic of Congo’s former colonial master and whose soldiers have been under fire in the Central African Republic--has refused to return troops to Brazzaville. Although the French ambassador has remained in the capital, most French soldiers abandoned it more than a week ago after helping to evacuate thousands of foreigners. The U.S. ambassador has departed.

Paris, reassessing its military role in its former African colonies, has offered logistic support to help solve the crisis in Brazzaville.

But many observers fear such aid may prove to be too little, too late.