Wilson Presidential Bid Finds Meager Support

His popularity may have inched upward into slightly positive territory, but Californians have a resounding message for Gov. Pete Wilson about his desire to make a second run for president: Just say no.

Almost 7 of every 10 Californians said Wilson should not seek the presidency in 2000, while only 23% said he should, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. Even among Republicans, only 28% supported a Wilson presidential campaign.

Besides dumping on Wilson’s aspirations, Californians made it clear that the governor has come to personify the philosophical and cultural schisms now tearing at the state’s Republican Party. Both the governor and his political party are having difficulty attracting women and Latinos, two increasingly influential voter groups in the state.

“Republicans have not made large enough inroads into welcoming women and Latinos into the their tent,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Los Angeles Times Poll. “The mouth can form the words of inclusivity, but there has to be action that follows.”

The poll interviewed 1,396 adults statewide Oct. 4-7. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

With California’s economy on a roll and the state’s budget in better shape than in recent years, the governor’s aides have been boasting of a Wilson political comeback and openly encouraging speculation about a second consecutive presidential run. Wilson has confirmed his interest in a second try, even though his first effort dramatically foundered just 32 days after he officially entered the race.

But California voters clearly do not want a rerun. Indeed, Wilson’s support has slipped even since 1995, when he launched his first presidential campaign.

In March 1995, amid protests that Wilson was breaking a promise to serve out his term as governor, a spare 29% of registered voters supported the governor’s bid. Now that support has slumped downward 6 points. And Republicans have eased their support as well, dropping from 34% support in 1995 to 28% now.

“He’s not considered presidential material even among his core constituency,” Pinkus said. “He’s not garnered any support beyond his base since he started his march toward the presidency in 1995.”

Wilson’s strongest levels of support, such as they were, came among whites and the young. Twenty-six percent of whites favored a second presidential bid, compared with 8% of African Americans and 18% of Latinos. Wilson’s support among Latinos had been much stronger in the past, but he has clashed with the community over Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigration measure that he strongly supported, and over his attempts to gut affirmative action programs.

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Despite the strong opposition to another presidential campaign, Wilson has made some strides in the minds of Californians--albeit very short ones. Forty-eight percent of Californians approved of the way he is handling his job, while 45% disapproved--a narrow turnaround from the 44%-47% rating he received one year ago.

Among those who approved of Wilson’s tenure, support was relatively muted. Only 15% strongly supported Wilson, and 33% said they approved somewhat. Those who disapproved were more forceful, with 24% disapproving strongly and 21% disapproving somewhat less.

Wilson also edged into positive territory when Californians were asked their impressions of the governor. Forty-eight percent said they had a favorable impression, to 42% who did not. In September 1995, the last time the question was asked, only 33% had a favorable impression and 57% had a negative image of the governor.

The polarizing nature of Wilson’s terms in office was clear when Californians were asked why they held the impression they did. His handling of illegal immigration was listed as both the top reason people like him and the top reason they don’t. Those who like Wilson also said he gets things done and that he was trying to be a good governor, while those who oppose him said that he favors the rich and that his views do not represent their own.

Californians also oppose Wilson’s recent veto of a bill that would have banned the manufacture and sale of cheap handguns. By a 50%-45% margin, respondents favored Wilson signing the bill.

The measure, potentially the most significant gun control bill in eight years, would have had national implications, because a few firms in Southern California produce about 80% of the nation’s supply of so-called Saturday night specials.

In vetoing the measure, Wilson said that it would have deprived poor people of a chance to purchase guns for self-protection. Although they marginally opposed his veto, Californians appeared to give some weight to his argument--the lower the income, the more support existed for the veto.

Among Californians making less than $20,000 a year, 49% approved of the veto and 46% disapproved. When it came to those making $60,000 or more, however, only 37% approved the veto and 60% opposed it.

In category after category, the poll results underscored Wilson’s continuing political difficulty with women--who form the majority of the state’s voters--and with Latinos, who will form the bulk of the population within decades. And the Republican Party itself has the same problems.

When it came to Wilson’s job approval, for example, 50% of men rated Wilson positively and 44% negatively, while women were split at 46% each. Men had a favorable impression of Wilson, 53% to 38%, and women were virtually split, 43% favorable to 45% unfavorable. Although 49% of men favored his gun bill veto, only 41% of women shared that view.

The results were even more stark when factored by race. Fifty-six percent of whites approved of Wilson’s handling of his job, compared with 33% of Latinos and only 16% of African Americans. Answering a separate question, only 33% of whites had a negative impression of Wilson, while 63% of Latinos and 75% of African Americans did.

The emotion of the dispute between Wilson and Latinos was illustrated by the responses they gave when asked why they had a negative impression of the governor. The top mentions were Wilson’s views of illegal immigration, at 34%, and their concern that his attitudes fostered racism, at 22%.

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The Republican Party shares Wilson’s image problems, despite its recent attempts to reach beyond its mostly male and white membership.

When respondents were asked which party is best positioned to solve California’s problems, 41% said Democrats, 33% said Republicans and the rest said neither or both. Breaking that down further, men were split 38%-38% between the two major parties, while women favored Democrats by a 44%-27% margin.

And, taking race into consideration, whites favored Republicans by a thin 38%-35% margin, while Latinos sided with Democrats by 51% to 21% and African Americans went with Democrats by 65% to 5%.

Californians also judged Democrats to be better at handling the issue they consider most important for politicians to handle--education--but considered Republicans better at handling immigration problems. They were split over who could best handle the economy.

In all cases, however, women, African Americans and Latinos were more inclined to side with Democrats.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Should He Run

Should Gov. Wilson seek the Republican presidential nomination?

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Asked of All Registered Voters:

Yes: 23%

No: 69%

Don’t know: 8%

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Responses by Party:

Dems.

Yes: 17%

No: 77%

Don’t know: 6%

GOP

Yes: 28%

No: 62%

Don’t know: 10%

Ind.

Yes: 27%

No: 63%

Don’t know: 10%

* Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

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Wilson Approval Rating

Californians are finally giving Gov. Wilson positive marks on how he handles his job. Democrats, meanwhile, are thought to be better on overall problems facing the state today, as well as education, while Republicans are thought to be better on immigration issues.

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Approve: 48%

Disapprove: 45%

Note: All polls taken in October of the respective year, except September 1995

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Would the Democrats or the Republicans do a better job of handling. . .

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California’s problems Economy Education Immigration Democrats 41% 39% 46% 34% Republicans 33 39 30 44 Neither/Both 18 13 13 14 Don’t know 8 9 11 8

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Source: Los Angeles Times polls

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,396 adults, including 1,092 registered voters, statewide by telephone Oct. 4-7. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results also can be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.