Some Ominous Signs on Airport Funding Front

The proposed El Toro airport is shaping up as a huge public investment project without any sense of reality about cost. Proponents have taken two countywide preference votes as authorization to start printing blank checks. The resourcefulness of developers in sticking the county with unimagined debt has been seen before in these parts. Here we are finding signs that, with a majority of supervisors on board, there are no defined limits.

Critics of cozy relations between developers and government in Orange County have long pointed to the familiar pattern. The developers decide what they want--new subdivisions, new roads or whatever else. Influenced by generous campaign contributions and lobbying, the government fills in the details. Concerns of the public about the environment and cost are left to be addressed later on, well after the deal is already done. Witness now the scrambling to cover the finances of the new and controversial San Joaquin Hills toll road, which although predictably underutilized was waved through before much of South County was even developed.

The summer’s fiscal news on the El Toro front raises serious concerns about whether this pattern is about to repeat itself as the county government shifts into preparations overdrive. The residents of Orange County should make no mistake about being on notice. They likely are in for recurring alarm about why El Toro is coming in above the early modest projections.

From the beginning, the estimated $1.4-billion cost of converting the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station to a commercial airfield had been a vague target at best. To any concern, proponents simply have said: “Don’t worry, we’ll take care of all that later. Let’s just get the property properly zoned so that we don’t lose this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”

Now come indications that cost figures on specific aspects of the project may be completely unreliable. In the midst of the recent county budget discussions, the cost of planning for the coordinating of airfield operations between John Wayne Airport and El Toro shot up some $6 million from estimates made as recently as June. The escalation to $20.3 million was explained away as the result of having no comparable precedent around the nation. “We did the best we could with the information we had,” said Courtney Wiercioch, who is in charge of the master planning process.

Does anybody really believe that the same logic will not be extended the airport itself? This rationale very easily could be applied to any phase of the planning and construction. It is worth remembering that this is the same bean counting from county apparatchiks that produced a failed scheme to spend hundreds of thousands on public relations.

If planners are looking for a national precedent, look to the so-called Big Dig project in Boston, a plan to lower an elevated highway already running though the downtown area. In 12 years, the cost estimates have gone from an original $2.5 billion to roughly $11 billion. The Government Accounting Office recently expressed concern about hundreds of millions of dollars of cost overruns.

But at least in that instance there is a firmer understanding of the degree to which the public is on the hook. The Orange County would-be airport is still a project without a benefactor. The advocates have dismissed all concern, predicting the airlines will pay.

If it ends up being the taxpayer, it will be worth reviewing a letter from the Air Line Pilots Assn. on July 23 that questions prevailing assumptions. The pilots challenge the idea that conversion will be a relatively simple matter because the airfield is in place. They argue that runway configurations are unusable, and that an entirely new airport will be needed.

Again the question: Who will pay? The county is apparently so unconcerned that it has told those who want alternatives they can’t join the planning unless they get with the program.

As the juggernaut gains steam, the need for cool fiscal heads in county government is greater by the day. The Board of Supervisors must get a grip, and soon.