Replay of ’95 Fiscal Fiasco Looms

In 1995, the issues that forced two partial government shutdowns were the kind of Big Ideas over which political parties stand or fall: whether to overhaul the vast welfare apparatus, revamp the cherished Medicare program, uproot dozens of domestic programs; whether, in short, to remake the size and scope of government.

This fall, however, the issues raising the prospect of another budget confrontation are far narrower. But they are so numerous that, after a lackadaisical legislative year, Congress will soon be forced into clashes with President Clinton about items ranging from public housing to the 2000 census to road-building in Alaska.

At issue are the 13 appropriation bills Congress has to pass before the fiscal year begins Oct. 1 in order to finance government programs. Even a do-nothing Congress has to pass these bills, or the government can’t operate. That’s what happened in the winter of 1995-96, when Clinton vetoed appropriations for part of the government and the Republican Congress for weeks refused to approve bills more acceptable to him.

So far this year, the House has passed 11 of the appropriation bills, the Senate only eight. The differences between the two chambers are so great that most bills are nowhere near ready to be sent to the White House. And Clinton already has showered veto threats on seven of the measures.

Republicans don’t welcome the prospect of another stalemate. During the partial shutdowns of 1995-96, Republicans paid a heavy political price, because voters tended to blame the GOP for the problems.

“Most of our members are extremely gunshy,” said a senior House Republican aide. “We lost our heads three years ago, and I don’t think anyone wants to go through that again.”

The finale of this year’s budget drama is weeks away, but both sides already have begun preemptive finger-pointing about who is to blame if it comes to a government shutdown. After several rounds of public blamesmanship, White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles wrote to House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) last week to say: “Shutting down the government is not any way to sort through our different priorities.”

Some Republicans in Congress even have begun hinting that Clinton may force a budget confrontation to divert attention from the investigation of his relationship with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky.

“Obviously he has a strong feeling of a need to change the subject,” says House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas).

Even if both sides agree they don’t want a shutdown, they will have to cut through a thicket of disputes--including many riders that have nothing to do with spending--to keep the government open. Among them:

Housing. House Republicans have loaded up one spending bill with a far-reaching overhaul of public housing programs, hoping the initiative can circumvent White House opposition by hitching a ride on a must-pass budget bill.

Census. In what may be the toughest nut to crack, the House has proposed cutting the budget for the 2000 census in half unless Clinton and Congress reach agreement on the proposed use of a statistical method called sampling. Republicans fear sampling will put them at a disadvantage when census data is used to redraw congressional districts in 2002.

Social issues. Republicans have littered their spending bills with conservative social-policy initiatives, including new limits on family planning services to minors, a measure to limit application of San Francisco’s ordinance on employee benefits for gay domestic partners and a ban on adoptions by gay couples in the District of Columbia.

Environment. The Clinton administration strongly objects to a number of environmental policy proposals included in the funding bills. One would allow construction of a road through a wildlife refuge in Alaska and another would hamstring administration global-warming initiatives.

Foreign policy. The House has refused to provide new money for the International Monetary Fund, an administration priority.

Despite the wide range of issues dividing Clinton and Congress, strategists say there will be pressure to resolve them quickly, because members of Congress in both parties will be eager to adjourn and start campaigning for reelection in October.

“The House majority is at stake,” said one House GOP aide. “Republicans want to maintain it, and the Democrats want to take it. The window of opportunity in October is a small window.”