Valley Secessionists, 35% Short of Goal, Still Optimistic

With only nine days left to collect signatures, activists petitioning for a San Fernando Valley secession study acknowledged Tuesday they are still 35% short of their goal, but expressed confidence that they will reach it.

Veterans of other petition-circulating campaigns said, however, that the Valley group is facing an uphill task and may have made a mistake in selecting the difficult summer period for its effort.

Leaders of Valley VOTE, the organization spearheading the campaign, said they have collected 116,900 signatures of the 180,000 they said they would need to wind up with 135,000 valid names. But they stressed that volunteer signature gatherers have yet to turn in an additional 105,000 petitions.

Still, the figure released Tuesday represents only a slight increase from Valley VOTE’s most recent tally on July 26, when the group estimated it had gathered 100,000 signatures.

Valley VOTE Chairman Richard Close explained that the earlier figure was based in part on blind speculation, because many petitions had not been turned in. Tuesday’s total of 116,900 signatures was based on petitions in hand, he said.

“I think the number is good,” Close said. “It’s really humming along.”

Under state law, Valley VOTE must collect signatures from 25% of the 540,000 registered voters in the Valley to trigger a study that could lead to a vote on the creation on a new, independent Valley city.

To ensure enough signatures after officials disqualify any invalid ones, Valley VOTE wanted to turn in 180,000 to 200,000.

Valley VOTE President Jeff Brain said that lofty goal is still within reach, since he expects a flood of petitions, signed by the Aug. 27 deadline, to arrive in the following two months, when they will still be usable. Plus, more than 80 paid signature gatherers will be soliciting signatures throughout the Valley until the last minute, Brain said.

However, the owner of a professional petitioning firm in San Francisco said Valley VOTE is far too optimistic, expressing doubts the group will succeed.

“To get 25% of the registered voters is virtually impossible,” said David Spero of Pacific Petition, which helped gather signatures to place the Indian gaming initiative on the statewide ballot in November.

The voter rolls in most counties are littered with ineligible names, including people who have either died or moved. Plus, there always is a certain percentage of voters who refuse to sign petitions, no matter what they’re for, Spero said.

“That probably takes up 30% of the voters right there,” Spero said. “That means you’ve got to have one out of every three voters support your cause--and secession is a controversial issue down there.”

Veteran political consultant Arnie Steinberg, whose public opinion poll on Valley secession earlier this year help launched the Valley VOTE campaign, agreed that the group faces a formidable task.

However, he still believes Valley VOTE has done well, especially since the petition drive was hampered by the stifling heat that has baked the San Fernando Valley this summer. People tend to stay indoors when the mercury climbs so high, putting them out of reach of signature gatherers, Steinberg said.

Another Los Angeles campaign expert, Harvey Englander, said he’s surprised Valley VOTE has had such a difficult time.

Englander approached Valley VOTE two months ago, suggesting the group use an aggressive direct mail campaign, an expensive but highly effective method that is commonplace in petition campaigns for voter propositions and ballot initiatives.

Englander, who fetches top dollar for his services, said both he and his advice were turned away.

Close said that Valley VOTE, through cooperating homeowners associations, has used a limited direct mail campaign in Sherman Oaks and Encino. Still, Valley VOTE decided not to mail petitions to every registered voter in the Valley because the cost would have been too much for the group, Close said.

Englander also scoffed at the complaint by Valley VOTE leaders that the petition drive might be doomed because its signature-gatherers were ejected from the popular July air show at the city-owned Van Nuys Airport. Valley VOTE Monday filed a federal lawsuit against the city over the incident.

“No single one event should be the cause of getting enough signatures or not,” Englander said.