Crime Statistics and Fear

Re “Public Fear of Crime Proves Elusive Enemy for LAPD,” Aug. 24: Unfortunately for public safety, the crime rate does not tell all or even most of the story. The U.S. Department of Justice will confirm that all of their victimization surveys show that about two-thirds of all crimes that occur are simply not reported. Local data will confirm that historically about two-thirds of all crimes that are reported to law enforcement do not result in an arrest. Lack of clearance by arrest typically ranges from 40% for murder upward to over 90% for car theft.

The crime rate has taken dips before, only to rise again as the political pendulum swings back again and favors a more passive response to crime, the beginnings which we are observing now.

The reality is that the crime rate is the reciprocal of the incarceration rate. When a wrongdoer is either in prison or the mental hospital, he is not committing crimes. When (as the recidivism rate shows) they are out, they are committing crimes.

California and much of the rest of the nation brought the crime rate down by virtue of playing catch-up on prison and jail construction. As the population grows, so does the actual number of criminals. The criminal justice systems needs to be sized to the workload, just as schools and highways do. The prosecution, defense, probation departments, jails and prisons and sentencing alternatives and techniques also have to keep up by being sized up. This is presently not being done. Therefore, people are being perfectly rational by keeping their suspicions and their guards up.

LARRY STIRLING

Judge, Municipal Court

San Diego

* As an expatriate Angeleno, I was delighted to read that L.A.’s problem of violent crime has been seriously exaggerated (Aug. 23). Before packing up the family and abandoning Orange County, though, I thought it prudent to look into the statistics. Going back a bit further in time than your Aug. 22 chart, which covered the period 1990 to 1997, I discovered that the most recent figures (1,598,166 violent crimes in 1997) are about 8% higher than for 1987 (1,484,000) and a whopping 54% beyond 1977 (1,029,580). That might be why for anyone older than 10 “violence lingers in the public mind.” But thanks anyway.

Although we reluctantly canceled our plans to relocate, your articles proved quite useful, as their presentation of data will help my students understand why studying criminal justice research methods is so important.

JAY WACHTEL

Garden Grove

* Local television news will tell you that violent crime is everywhere--much like what they do to your mind seven days a week.

WAYNE E. SCOTT

Camarillo