If Three Win, One Loses

Gentlemen, start your calculators.

Saturday’s games involving three unbeaten schools, their quarterbacks and their Quartile Ranks may at last sort out the most confounding national title race on record.

The alternative, the one math professors are pining for, is complete computer chaos.

Tennessee, UCLA and Kansas State rank 1-2-3 in the bowl championship series rankings, a four-pronged formula used to determined which two teams will meet in the Fiesta Bowl. The Jan. 4 game has already been ordained the national title game by the USA Today/ESPN coaches’ poll, the small glitch being that the coaches’ No. 1 team, Kansas State, may not qualify for the game.

Tennessee (11-0) and Mississippi State (8-3) meet in Atlanta for the Southeastern Conference championship. UCLA (10-0) plays at Miami (7-3) in a makeup of a game postponed Sept. 26 by Hurricane Georges. Kansas State (11-0) and Texas A&M; (10-2) square off in St. Louis for the Big 12 title.

If Tennessee, UCLA or Kansas State loses, it’s easy. Then, Saturday’s two winners advance to the Fiesta Bowl. If two of the three lose, Saturday’s winner will play Florida State. If all three lose, Florida State and Ohio State are the Fiesta Bowl contestants.

If, though, Tennessee, UCLA and Kansas State all win, the Fiesta Bowl participants will be determined by the BCS computer on Sunday. Tennessee leads UCLA by only .04 of a point in the BCS and Kansas State by 1.32.

Here’s a brief look at the key games:

UCLA at Miami, 11 a.m., ESPN.

After weeks of fighting off Kansas State’s BCS charge, UCLA appears in good shape, provided the Bruins beat the Hurricanes. UCLA’s strength of schedule ranking, No. 7, is superior to those of Tennessee’s 29 and Kansas State’s 62, and figures to be enough to secure a No. 1 or 2 BCS spot.

Kansas State vs. Texas A&M;, 1:30 p.m., Channel 7

Everyone said, “Just wait until Kansas State’s strength of schedule kicks in.” Well? Consecutive games against Nebraska and Missouri have bumped Kansas State’s ranking from 79 to 62. Jeff Sagarin, whose computer is one of three used in the BCS formula, predicts Kansas State will move from 62 to 39 in the BCS after playing Texas A&M;, a pickup of .92 of a point. If Sagarin’s right, Kansas State will still need help from either a move from No. 2 to No. 1 in the Associated Press poll (not likely) or, a bump from the computer component, possibly a Kansas State shift from No. 3 to No. 2 in the Seattle Times computer or the New York Times’ computer dropping Florida State as its No 1.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi, 5 p.m., Channel 7

Tennessee received quite a scare this week when a 41-0 drubbing of 2-9 Vanderbilt nearly cost the Volunteers their top spot in the BCS. There are scenarios afloat that have Tennessee getting knocked out of the Fiesta Bowl with a win over Mississippi State, but school officials are confident a victory will get Tennessee to the promised land of Tempe.

5 THINGS TO LOOK FOR

1. Ohio State outrage. Still considered by some the most talented team in the country, the 10-1 Buckeyes could get squeezed out of a BCS bowl. If UCLA, Tennessee and Kansas State all win, and UCLA and Tennessee meet in the Fiesta Bowl, the Sugar Bowl wants to match Kansas State and Florida State. The Orange Bowl reportedly will give up Florida State to get Florida-Syracuse. Florida (9-2) beats out Ohio State because the Gators’ appearance guarantees a packed house.

2. How about an Egghead Bowl? Jeff Sagarin said this week there’s a formula by which Tennessee loses out to Kansas State in the BCS by ten hundredths of a point. A UCLA alum and mathematician has devised a formula by which UCLA, Tennessee and Kansas State play for the national title . . . in the same game! James F. Holt writes, “the winner of the first quarter plays the third team in the second quarter . . . “ Oh, brother.

3. A sobriety test. The Football News released its All-American teams this week and let’s just say it may be banned in the UCLA bookstore. First team quarterback? Michael Bishop, Kansas State. Fair enough. Second team? Tim Couch, Kentucky. OK, fine. Third team? Tulane’s Shaun King. King over UCLA’s Cade McNown? OK, FB News, step out of the car and try touching your finger to your nose.

4. Plays scratched in the Fiesta Bowl dirt? Tennessee offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe’s decision to take the Mississippi coaching job might have damaged Tennessee’s national title hopes. Cutcliffe has been Coach Phillip Fulmer’s right-hand man in Knoxville and calls all the offensive plays. Cutcliffe will remain on staff through Saturday’s Southeastern Conference title game, but he will not coach Tennessee in its bowl game. Running back coach Randy Sanders, who has never called plays, gulp, will take over for Cutcliffe.

5. A workers’ revolt. Had a lousy year in sales? Well, it’s high time you got a raise. That’s what happened this week at Temple, where Coach Bobby Wallace turned a 2-9 season into a contract extension and a raise. All it took was Auburn’s showing interest in Wallace before hiring Mississippi’s Tommy Tuberville.

RATING THE TV GAMES

****Don’t leave the recliner

***The yardwork can wait.

**OK to flip to fishing show

*For arena football scouts only

***Army (2-8) vs. Navy (3-7), 9 a.m., Channel 2

The records don’t amount to can of corned- beef hash, and Air Force has already clinched the Commander in Chief’s Trophy, but worth watching for the colorful banter in the stands.

***Brigham Young (9-3) vs. Air Force (10-1), 10 a.m., Channel 7

This may well be for the last 16-school WAC title, but no major bowl berth is at stake. BYU is headed to the Liberty Bowl and Air Force to one of the two Hawaii bowls.