Buyers’ Market
With her 4-year-old daughter, Kristen, in tow, Grace McKerall headed to the Buenaventura Mall in Ventura last week to “do a little recon” in advance of what would be a major holiday shopping spree.
Thumbing through a stack of pricey art prints at a kiosk dripping with holiday decor, the Port Hueneme resident said she wasn’t going to let the economy’s unsteady course keep her from spending this year.
“I don’t feel like money is that much of a problem,” said McKerall, who estimated that she would spend about $2,000 during the holidays. “And I don’t think the future is going to be bad. . . . It’s already getting better, and I think it will stay that way.”
Despite an uncertain economic future and a stock market that, depending on the day, is either plummeting or soaring into record territory, Ventura County’s legion of holiday shoppers are keeping a rather loose hold on their purse strings.
Area retail centers like The Oaks mall in Thousand Oaks, the Buenaventura Mall and the Camarillo Premium Outlets have reported substantial increases in business for the week after Thanksgiving, quelling fears that this holiday shopping season might be a bust for retailers.
On the Friday after Thanksgiving--traditionally the busiest shopping day of the year--The Oaks logged an 18.2% increase in sales over the same date in 1997.
Last week, daily sales at the mall increased between 2% and 15% through Friday.
“It’s kind of a relief,” said Diane Brandes, marketing director for The Oaks mall. “About a month ago no one really knew what to think because of all the bad news coming out, but all the merchants here tell me they’re doing really well.”
Though no sales statistics were available for the Buenaventura Mall, store owners and marketing personnel said business has been brisk and busy.
Amid the construction at the mall that places parking at a premium, merchants said customers seem to be a little looser with their checkbooks this season.
One store manager, who asked not to be identified because of company policy, said traffic in his electronics store has fallen since last year, but profits are up.
“They’re buying the big stuff this year,” he said. “It’s none of the little things. . . . It’s cell phones and computers and fax machines, pretty much anything over a few hundred dollars.”
For much of the past year, a dark cloud has hung over the nation’s economy, threatening to cool the explosive growth of recent years.
Financial turmoil in Asia, South America and Russia has sent the U.S. stock market and trade indexes into feverish fits and diminished demand for domestic exports. This prompted many analysts to predict a major economic slowing.
Yet those predictions have remained little more than worst-case-scenarios as the national economy continues to post gains, confounding experts who thought otherwise.
Ventura County’s economy has never been as strong or diverse. Unemployment continues to hover around 5.8%. Job growth has increased by about 3% over last year--with most of the hiring occurring in the high-paying service, financial, manufacturing and aerospace sectors.
In addition, the Federal Reserve’s decision to ratchet down interest rates twice this year has given many consumers a reprieve on credit, allowing county residents to refinance homes and create more liquidity.
“What’s happening out there is a little odd,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project. “You would almost expect people to be a little tighter with their money this year, but that isn’t the case.”
Susan Khodanian said she’s become familiar with the confidence many consumers feel this holiday season as they gobble up such luxuries as diamond-studded bracelets, ruby rings and sapphire pendants at her jewelry outlet in the Buenaventura Mall.
“People always spend a little more freely this time of year, but this year has been better than most,” said Khodanian, owner of Anthony Kevin Jewelers. “Most of the people who come here are spending between $500 and $1,000, which is pretty good.”
The exuberance demonstrated by Ventura County shoppers this season is hardly exceptional. Retailers across the nation are reaping a windfall thanks to the confidence most consumers have about the future.
A survey conducted for Intuit Inc., makers of the Quicken accounting program, found that the average person is planning to spend more than $1,000 this season.
In addition, the survey found that roughly 60% of consumers had not limited themselves to a budget. Of the 40% who had, 12% said they planned to exceed it.
Michelle Boothe, who said she was going to limit herself to about $500, was one of those.
“I’m already close to the limit and not even halfway through my list,” the 32-year-old Thousand Oaks resident said as she strained to hold five shopping bags. “But how can you really [limit yourself]. . . . If you find something you know somebody’s really going love, you have to buy it--it’s Christmas.”
