NBC Still Looking for Right ‘Sein’ Posts

While not the sort of anniversary NBC is likely to celebrate, Wednesday marks one year since Jerry Seinfeld plopped a lump of coal in the network’s Christmas stocking, informing NBC brass that his top-rated sitcom, “Seinfeld,” would finish its epic run that spring.

Some might trace NBC’s current ratings woes--including a 16% decline in its audience this fall--directly to fallout from Seinfeld’s bombshell. On closer examination, however, that’s an overly simplistic analysis of the miscalculation, creative misfires and uncontrollable events that have conspired against the network, including a more general shift in the TV business as a whole.

Seinfeld’s announcement wasn’t bad news for everybody, benefiting many of those associated with NBC. Facing the double whammy of lacking TV’s biggest hit and giving up NFL football to CBS, NBC saw “ER” and “Mad About You” as prizes the network couldn’t afford to lose. Studios and stars behind those programs cashed in handsomely, as did “Frasier” and Kelsey Grammer once NBC named that show “Seinfeld’s” heir apparent.

Others were less fortunate. With its substantial audience drop, NBC now ranks behind CBS in total viewers. Hoping to keep profits up, the network resorted to cost-cutting measures and layoffs. A management change at the entertainment division followed.

In a more nebulous sense, NBC’s esprit de corps and cockiness became another casualty. After seeming to delight in lording over its rivals, NBC lost a bit of its swagger. The network’s aviary image, in fact, has in recent months been less its historic peacock logo than buzzards circling overhead.

Easy as it would be to blame all this on Seinfeld’s Ebenezer Scrooge act, the root of NBC’s difficulties may actually stem from a decision made seven months earlier. At that time, NBC unveiled a prime-time lineup for the 1997-98 season featuring an unprecedented 18 sitcoms, including such fare as “Jenny,” “Men Behaving Badly” and “The Tony Danza Show.”

Riding high as the No. 1 network, NBC wanted to corner the market on urban comedies and reap the financial benefits of doing so. Not only do sitcoms generally cost less to produce than dramas, but they usually draw higher advertising rates and perform better in reruns.

In retrospect, however, NBC reached too far, too fast, to the detriment of some shows that needed to be nurtured for the day when “Seinfeld” did exit. Everyone knew the show would end sooner or later, though NBC may have assumed money could postpone the inevitable, perhaps underestimating Seinfeld’s own neuroses.

In spreading out its comedies, NBC took one of its most promising series, “3rd Rock From the Sun,” and moved the show for the third time in 18 months, surrounding it with three unproven new sitcoms on Wednesday nights. “3rd Rock” struggled opposite “The Drew Carey Show,” and though NBC recently moved the show back to Tuesdays, the series now looks as if it may have been damaged beyond repair.

NBC’s strategy hinged on bundling thematically compatible comedies together, with one or more popular shows among them to carry viewers through the night. It’s a concept networks have always employed--using popular shows as “tent poles” to prop up the series around them.

This theory has proven less reliable, however, as the way people watch TV changes. With most viewers clutching a remote control, they no longer have to sit through such shows as the defunct “Union Square” week after week just because the shows are sandwiched between “Friends” and “Seinfeld.”

In short, NBC scheduled 18 sitcoms when only about half of them were able to stand on their own, and even some of those needed help in securing a following for the future.

“The idea wasn’t flawed,” observed recently installed NBC Entertainment President Scott Sassa. “The idea had some brains behind it. It just turned out wrong in the execution.”

Coddling new shows has always been necessary but has become even more vital given the fragmented audiences networks face today. Even “Seinfeld” hardly sprung from the ground a ratings sensation, languishing for three years (including a stint getting its brains bashed in by ABC’s “Home Improvement”) before NBC put the series behind “Cheers” in 1993.

While seldom assigned blame in such discussions, program creators and stars also merit a share of responsibility. NBC gambled on new series from the producers of “Friends,” “Frasier” and “ER,” as well as stars like Danza, Kirstie Alley and Nathan Lane. Every network wanted these projects, yet the results--among them the Lane vehicle “Encore! Encore!”--didn’t meet expectations.

So where does all this leave NBC really? Believe it or not, in relatively good shape, as broadcasters go.

Sources say the network’s profits will still exceed $350 million this year, while all the other networks lose money. Even weakened, its Thursday lineup remains television’s most formidable franchise, frequently beating all combined network competition. The heart of that lineup, “ER,” has been secured for two more years.

NBC still clings to first place among adults ages 18 to 49, the demographic advertisers covet. The network also dominates the late-night and early-morning hours thanks to “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno,” “Late Night With Conan O’Brien” and “Today.”

Moreover, CBS, ABC and Fox have also experienced audience declines versus a year ago.

“It’s not just an NBC issue. It’s a network issue, because everybody’s down,” noted Preston Beckman, NBC’s executive vice president of scheduling and program planning.

When NBC West Coast President Don Ohlmeyer joined what was then a third-place network nearly six years ago, he said, “There’s really nothing wrong with NBC that a couple of hits won’t fix.” Within the next two years “Frasier,” “Friends” and “ER” arrived, hoisting the network back on top of the ratings.

Now the pendulum is swinging back in the other direction, but Sassa thinks Ohlmeyer’s past assessment still holds true.

“The strategy is as simple as that,” he said. “The execution is just harder.”

Given the loss of “Seinfeld” and the heightened pressure all broadcasters face from cable and other competing technologies, it’s possible nothing could have completely forestalled NBC’s difficulties. TV, like sports, runs in cycles, with star players enjoying fleeting careers. Choose wrong in replacing them, and someone else will soon be No. 1.

NBC has clearly grazed an iceberg, and changing course with a ship this large won’t happen overnight. Still, for NBC--indeed, for any network--”a couple of hits” would certainly be a good place to start.

“The idea wasn’t flawed. The idea had some brains behind it. It just turned out wrong in the execution.”