GOP Losing Edge With New Voters in O.C.

Democrats and independents accounted for more new Orange County voters in November than Republicans, which helped build a winning cushion for Democrats in several key races, according to a Times Orange County analysis.

Republicans claimed 44% of the new voters, well below their 51% share of all registered voters, a computer analysis of the election by political analyst Dick Lewis of Newport Beach showed. Democrats drew 33% of first-timers, slightly above their overall registration.

Independents and members of minor parties, however, accounted for 22% of new voters--an all-time high and 10 percentage points above their overall registration.

The review also showed that Orange County Republicans, rather than staying home, turned out and voted in the general election. Overall, Republicans accounted for 54% of the countywide turnout, compared with 33% for Democrats.

The results showed that although Republicans continue to dominate county registration rolls by 220,000 voters, the party was unable to persuade non-GOP voters in November to vote Republican.

Among the races for governor and other state constitutional offices, GOP candidates barely held on to registration levels, while Democrats surged on the strength of independents and crossover voters.

The fallout was evident on election day: The county’s Republican legislative dynasty was toppled by the victories of Democratic state Sen. Joe Dunn and Assemblyman Lou Correa, who won central-county seats. Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) enjoyed a 14,576-vote victory over former congressman Robert K. Dornan, also thanks to independents and crossover voters.

The growing trend of new independent and minor-party voters shows that the Republican Party’s longtime dominance in Orange County is eroding, said county Democratic Party Chairwoman Jeanne Costales.

Another factor is that ethnic voters, participating in county elections in growing numbers, are among Democrats’ strongest voting groups, she said.

The computer analysis showed a much greater turnout among Latinos and Vietnamese voters casting ballots for the first time. Latinos, for example, accounted for 18% of new voters; overall, Latinos accounted for 10% of voters.

To win in the future, the most attractive candidates will be those who can appeal to all voters, Costales said.

“The socially mainstream, fiscally moderate candidates are the ones that are going to win elections,” she said. “I know you hear the [Republican conservatives] say they lost because their candidates weren’t ‘conservative enough,’ but they just don’t get it. I don’t know what you have to do to get their attention, but this works fine for me.”

Bill Christianson, executive director of the Republican Party in the county, said the GOP is aware that more voters are stating their independence. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t philosophically aligned with Republican candidates, he said.

“We find, especially in South County, that a lot of people are registered as independents because younger people don’t go by the old party line as much,” he said. “But they still vote Republican.”

The problem in November, he said, was that the top of the ticket, gubernatorial candidate Dan Lungren, didn’t energize enough voters, regardless of party.

“When the top of the ticket tanks, everyone else does too,” he said.

In another nationally watched race, Sanchez drew votes well above Democratic turnout--by about 10 percentage points--in the 46th Congressional District, which encompasses Santa Ana, Garden Grove and most of Anaheim. She trailed the party vote in only two out of 265 precincts, the election analysis showed.

The analysis showed that Dornan ran below GOP turnout in as many precincts as he ran above it. Other GOP hopefuls didn’t do much better, however.

“Dornan didn’t do all that badly, comparatively,” Lewis said. “He got rinsed maybe, but not hosed.”

The computer review analyzed votes cast in the general election by party and ethnicity. The information was released late last week by the registrar of voters office.

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Declaring Independence

Independent voters in Orange County made a mark in November, totaling a little over 22% of those marking ballots for the first time--far beyond their share of the total electorate in the county. The percentage of first-time GOP voters ranked far below the percentage of total Republicans. New voters also had higher percentages of Latinos and Vietnamese.

New voters as % of total: 14

New Voters:

Democrats: 33.5%

Republicans: 44.2%

Independents: 22.3%

Total: 99,274

All Voters:

Democrats: 33.0

Republicans: 54.4%

Independents: 12.8%

Total: 704,270

*

New Voters:

White: 75.5

Latino: 17.7

Vietnamese: 6.8

All Voters:

White: 86.0

Latino: 10.4

Vietnamese: 3.6

*

Source: Orange County Registrar of Voters; political analyst Dick Lewis.