No Consensus Yet for the No. 1 Pick

The perception is that Colt boss Bill Polian’s decision on whom to take with the first pick in the draft will be a slam dunk--Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning.

The reality is there’s no slam dunk. His choices are more like a free throw, an open jump shot or a short bank-in.

More than 20 front-office men and coaches were asked which player they would pick with the first pick in the draft if need was not an issue, and the results may surprise you.

No player was an overwhelming choice.

In fact, only three players were mentioned: Florida State defensive end Andre Wadsworth, who had one more vote than Manning, and Washington State quarterback Ryan Leaf, who was a distant third.

With the first pick, you want the best player with the least amount of risk. Wadsworth is that player.

Neither quarterback may be as pure a prospect as he is when the entire picture--ability, production, character and medical history--is taken into account.

The reason Manning and Leaf may be picked ahead of Wadsworth is because good quarterbacks come along less frequently than buffalo nickels, and quarterback is the most important position in the game.

Then again, great defensive ends might be as difficult to find.

Many scouts say there are more ways to err on a quarterback. An argument can be made that college quarterbacks are more difficult to project than players at any other position.

For evidence, we present Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, Dave Brown, David Klingler and Andre Ware. Each was picked in the top seven of an NFL draft since 1990 (Brown was a supplemental pick) and each has failed to play up to expectations.

Over that time period, only one quarterback chosen near the top of the draft has played to his potential--Drew Bledsoe. And even he has not always been everything the Patriots had hoped for.

Quarterbacks who go high are counted on to play quickly and make a seamless transition from the college to the pro passing game. When rookie quarterbacks struggle, the combination of interceptions, losses and harsh critiques can destroy their confidence to the point of no recovery. A lot of it is beyond the players’ control.

The other route would be to sit the rookie quarterback and let him develop while he eats away time as he approaches free agency.

There have been quite a few disappointments at the defensive end position as well. Among them since 1990: Cedric Jones (No. 5 overall), Mike Mamula (No. 7), John Copeland (No. 5) and Eric Curry (No. 6). But the recent first-year successes of Peter Boulware and Simeon Rice give new hope to teams interested in drafting pass rushers.

Here is a look at the pros and cons of using the first pick of the draft on each of the three:

--Wadsworth. According to most talent judges, he is a flawless prospect. He dominated at his position to a greater extent than either of the quarterbacks. Wadsworth has the ability to get after the passer like Boulware, the ability to stop the run like Darrell Russell and the motor of Jason Taylor. The only potential knock on him is he’s a late bloomer who only produced at a high level for one season.

--Manning. Born and bred to be a quarterback, he is as prepared for what awaits him as anyone could be. Manning has unusual maturity for a kid his age (he’ll be 22 in March). His intangibles are off the charts, and he has produced against defenses zeroed in to stop him throughout his college career. However, his arm isn’t a rocket, and he doesn’t have the kind of can’t-miss physical skill that characterized Bledsoe or Troy Aikman when they came out.

--Leaf. He probably has the most potential of any player in the ’98 draft. One scout compares his ability to John Elway’s. He’s got a big arm and a quick release to go with it. Leaf is the prototype for size, athleticism, toughness and competitiveness. He has experience in a pro-style passing game. Leaf, who is two months younger than Manning, may take awhile to develop after leaving college a year early. Though he appears to have matured in the past year, many still question if he’s all grown up, or if he ever will be. Leaf is a classic drop-back passer, but some scouts wonder if he’s quick enough to operate a West Coast passing game.