Americans Back Military Strike Against Hussein

Americans by a large margin support the use of force against Iraq in the conflict over weapons inspections and overwhelmingly dismiss the suggestion that President Clinton is preparing a move against Saddam Hussein to distract attention from his own problems, a nationwide Los Angeles Times Poll shows.

While the poll indicates the Clinton administration can count on considerable public deference for whatever moves it takes against Iraq, it does contain one cautionary note.

By 68% to 24%, those surveyed said they believe airstrikes against Iraq should be designed to remove the Iraqi leader from power, not just to force him to cooperate with weapons inspectors.

Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen and other Pentagon officials have publicly said that airstrikes cannot accomplish the broader goal of bringing down the Iraqi regime--and may not even be able to accomplish the narrower goal of ensuring compliance with weapons inspections.

As a result, much as the public view of the Persian Gulf War eventually soured somewhat because of Hussein’s survival, the public could end up disappointed by the results of any airstrikes.

For now, however, the poll indicates nothing but a green light. By 71%-22%, the public approves of “the United States launching an airstrike against Iraq” if that country does not allow United Nations inspectors free rein to inspect suspected sites for nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

And 77% of the public believes that Clinton is “considering an airstrike against Iraq in response to Iraq’s recent actions.” Only 16% said they believe that he is considering airstrikes “primarily to divert attention away from the allegations surrounding him.”

The Times Poll was conducted Thursday through Saturday among 1,314 adults nationwide. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The poll indicates that Clinton also has a strong hand in several of his domestic policy disagreements with congressional Republicans--including the debate over whether to enact new tax cuts, which Clinton opposes.

At the same time, the survey indicates general approval of how Congress is doing its job, with 53% of those polled saying that they approve of Congress’ performance, while 37% disapprove.

The congressional rating is the highest in many years--indicating that the buoyant economy and generally positive mood of the country are benefiting incumbents at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

Although Congress is controlled by Republicans, the high approval rating holds true across the board, with 51% of Democrats, 53% of independents and 59% of Republicans voicing approval of the legislative branch.

The poll indicated that 72% of Americans either watched the State of the Union speech or heard or read about it afterward--a percentage that is higher than for most previous addresses.

Those who had knowledge of the speech liked it. The speech received an “excellent” or “good” rating from 75% of those polled, while 18% rated the address “fair” and 5% said it was “poor.”

Those high marks carried over to the specific policy proposals outlined in the speech. The poll surveyed opinion on six of them, and each received extremely high percentages of approval--a testament, in part, to the care with which Clinton’s pollsters tested their proposals in advance.

For example, Clinton’s proposal for a “consumer bill of rights” for people enrolled in health maintenance organizations received support from 88% of those surveyed, with only 9% opposed; 60% said they strongly support the idea.

Last year, Republican opposition killed a similar proposal in Congress, with conservative spokespersons arguing that the plan was a further step in Clinton’s attempt to enact his 1993 health reform proposal by incremental steps.

Similarly, Clinton’s proposal to increase federal subsidies to low-income families for child care won support 82%-16%; his proposal to increase federal aid to education in order to reduce class sizes in elementary schools garnered a 79%-18% majority; his proposal to increase the tax on cigarettes was supported, 71%-27%; and his plan to increase the minimum wage--a popular position that Republican leaders strongly oppose--was favored 78%-20%.

However, Clinton’s pledge to produce a balanced budget in the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 encountered some public skepticism. Asked whether they believe the government’s books will actually balance once the fiscal year ends, those polled said no by 51%-35%, with 14% saying they were unsure.

Despite the public skepticism about a balanced budget, lawmakers have already moved to the next step--arguing about how to spend a projected surplus.

Republican leaders would like to use part of the surplus--some members of the congressional leadership have pegged the amount at one-third--to cover new, broad-scale tax cuts. A proposal for that sort of tax cut was a centerpiece of the GOP response to Clinton’s speech Tuesday night.

Clinton has sought to hold off any such move by insisting that all surplus funds should be held in reserve until the long-term financial problems of the Social Security system are resolved. He has said he would propose a plan for fixing those problems next year after hosting a series of discussions around the country to build a national consensus for reform.

Asked if they support Clinton’s proposal to reserve the surplus in order to strengthen Social Security, 82% said yes, 16% said no.

Asked more specifically to compare Clinton’s proposal with the Republican offer of tax cuts, those surveyed opted for Clinton’s plan by 60%-28%.

As previous surveys have done, the current poll indicated substantial public unease about the condition of Social Security. Asked whether they believe benefits will be available when they retire, 26% of those surveyed said they think there will be no money at all. Another 36% said they believe money will be available for them to receive only part of their retirement benefits. Only 21% said they think they will receive all their benefits.

Pessimism about Social Security was particularly marked among those 44 or younger. Republicans--particularly Republican men--were also notably more likely to say that they expect to receive no benefits, which helps explain the support that some Republican lawmakers have given to replacing Social Security with a system of private pensions.

When respondents were given a series of choices for how to spend any surplus, strengthening Social Security was the top choice, with the support of 37% overall. An additional 17% said the money should go to reduce the debt.

In reality, devoting the money to Social Security and reducing the national debt are the same thing. The Social Security Trust Fund holds substantial amounts of government IOUs, so moving surplus funds to Social Security would automatically reduce the debt.

The choice that came in second, with 28% support, was increased federal spending for education. Spending more for education garnered the support of 40% of self-identified liberals, 26% of moderates and 24% of conservatives.

Only 1% of those surveyed supported increasing funds for another social program. Tax cuts received 12% support and were in fourth place even among conservatives.

In the past, Republican leaders have supported tax cut proposals because they tend to be popular among the party’s strongest supporters and because they unite the party and draw a sharp line between Republicans and Democrats.

But the current survey shows considerable disagreement within the GOP. While Democrats were relatively united behind Clinton’s priorities of strengthening Social Security and spending more on education, Republicans were closely divided among all four of the leading goals--an indication of how skillful Clinton has been in trying to shape the political issues.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Times Poll: The Public’s View

Americans stand solidly behind President Clinton should he decide to use force against Iraq in the standoff over weapon inspections. They also support using air strikes to drive Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power.

Do you approve or disapprove of the United States launching an airstrike Iraq?

Strongly approve: 50%

Somewhat approve: 21%

Disapprove: 22%

Don’t know: 7%

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Should the purpose of an airstrike be only to force Saddam Hussein to cooperate on U.N. inspections, or should it also be to remove him from power?

Also remove from power: 68%

Force him to cooperate: 24%

Don’t know: 8%

Source: The Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Times Poll: A Balanced Budget?

Despite President Clinton’s optimistic State of the Union address, Americans are skeptical about the federal government’s ability to balance the budget. Additionally, nearly two-thirds of Americans agree with Clinton that we should not enact broad tax cuts until the Social Security system’s problems are resolved.

By the end of the year, do you believe Clinton and Congress will be able to pass a balanced budget?

Yes: 35%

No: 51%

Don’t know: 14%

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How would you prefer surplus money in the budget to be used?*

Strengthen Social Security: 37%

Increase funding for education: 28%

Reduce national debt: 17%

Reduce taxes: 12%

Increase funding for other social programs: 1%

Don’t know: 4%

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Republican leaders have suggested devoting up to one-third of the projected budget surplus to tax cuts. Clinton said he does not want broad tax cuts until Social Security’s problems are resolved. Which of these proposals do you prefer?

Clinton’s: 60%

Republicans’: 28%

Neither: 4%

Don’t know: 8%

* Note: Numbers do not add up to 100% because some answer categories are not shown.

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Times Poll contacted 1,314 adults nationwide by telephone Jan. 29-31. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Times Poll data can also be accessed on the World Wide Web at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/

Source: The Times Poll