GOP Jostling to Fill Gingrich’s Shoes

Increasingly convinced that House Speaker Newt Gingrich may leave Congress as early as next year to run for president, Republicans already are jockeying for position in the post-Gingrich world.

One powerful committee chairman, Rep. Robert L. Livingston (R-La.), has declared his interest in succeeding Gingrich (R-Ga.) as speaker. House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas), Gingrich’s heir-apparent, is buttonholing colleagues to consolidate his support.

And on Wednesday, a young upstart, Rep. Bill Paxon (R-N.Y.), abruptly backed out of a widely expected leadership challenge, sending GOP malcontents scrambling for another horse to ride.

Paxon’s unexpected decision averted for the moment a potential civil war among hostile camps of House Republicans. But it still left the party facing an inevitable--and potentially divisive--leadership shake-up.

At stake is one of the most visible and powerful roles in the Republican Party after Gingrich steps down as speaker. Will it be a fresh face or an established leader? A confrontational conservative or a more pragmatic deal-maker?

Those questions will require answers sooner rather than later if Gingrich steps down next year to run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2000. Even if he does not, a successor will have to be chosen by 2002 because of GOP rules setting an eight-year limit on a speaker’s term.

“People are thinking about a post-Newt world,” said Rep. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.). “Newt is a gifted person who will be hard to replace.”

The early, intense maneuvering threatens to reopen divisions within the party--between moderates and conservatives, established leaders and back-bench rebels--at a time when Republicans are trying to maintain and expand their narrow hold on Congress as midterm elections approach.

Paxon’s decision to abandon a widely anticipated challenge to Armey--he also said that he will not run for reelection--is likely to postpone a battle royal over the future of the party and its leadership--to the relief of many fellow Republicans.

“I’m glad to see a diffusing of the back-room speculation about what we’re going to do a year from now, when between now and then we have an election,” said Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.).

As for his presidential ambitions, Gingrich has said that he will decide by Labor Day of 1999 whether he will run.

Paxon’s decision to quit Congress rather than take on Armey is a blow to a noisy faction of conservative backbenchers who have been trying to force the GOP leadership into a more confrontational approach to Democrats.

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Paxon emerged as a hero of that cadre in the wake of a bitter internal GOP fight last summer. Paxon was implicated in an effort to oust Gingrich as speaker, in part because of complaints that the speaker was straying from conservative principles in negotiations with the White House. Paxon resigned from the GOP leadership after the failed coup.

As Gingrich’s political position has improved in recent months, Paxon turned his sights on Armey. He privately canvassed colleagues about challenging Armey’s reelection as majority leader after the 1998 elections. Paxon drew support from rebels and other Republicans who saw him as a telegenic, fresh-faced alternative to Armey’s more dour, professorial brand of conservatism.

Paxon decided a week ago to make the challenge but later changed his mind, citing family considerations. Paxon is married to former Rep. Susan Molinari (R-N.Y.), who left Congress last year to become a television commentator and to spend more time with their young daughter. Paxon said that he had a change of heart after concluding that running for and serving in the House leadership would take too great a toll on his family life.

“I looked at my daughter, and I said to myself, this I cannot do to her,” Paxon told reporters Wednesday.

Paxon, who like Molinari had been seen as a bright rising star in the GOP, said that he could have beaten Armey if he had tried. But Armey has been moving aggressively to solidify his support and Gingrich recently sent a clear signal that he would weigh in on Armey’s behalf.

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Armey supporters dismissed the notion that he would have lost his job to Paxon and suggested that Paxon pulled out when he realized he could not win.

Meanwhile, Livingston, who chairs the powerful House Appropriations Committee, acknowledged last week that he would like to succeed Gingrich as speaker. He said that he has no plans to challenge Armey’s reelection as majority leader in December but made clear that he would take on Armey when Republicans choose Gingrich’s successor as speaker.

“Everyone thinks being majority leader is an automatic steppingstone to the speakership,” said Livingston. “I don’t agree. Being chairman of the Appropriations Committee is a good steppingstone in its own right.”

Indeed, that chairmanship has allowed Livingston to do plenty of favors for colleagues. But it has also earned him some enmity. He has often been at odds with conservatives who tried to use appropriations bills to carry antilabor amendments and other controversial riders that slowed the work of his committee.

Rep. Joe Scarborough (R-Fla.), a member of the rebel faction, bemoaned Paxon’s decision to retire, and predicted that the next generation of leaders would back away even further from the confrontational spirit embodied by Republicans elected to Congress in 1994.

“The question is whether we’re going to be a party of the status quo or whether we’re going to be a party of reform,” said Scarborough, a member of the class of ’94. “Unfortunately many of the players expressing interest in being the next speaker of the House have represented the status quo.”