‘Six-Year Itch’ Casting a Shaky Shadow Over 1998 Elections

If history is any guide, Democrats should be shaking in their boots as they view the approaching 1998 midterm campaign.

The vote will come as President Clinton is wrapping up his sixth year in office--a benchmark that traditionally translates into hefty congressional losses for the incumbent’s party.

Instead, Democrats are taking comfort from the current public mood of contentment, an attitude that, if it persists, argues against their suffering from the so-called “six-year itch.”

But here’s the rub: That same benign political environment--relatively favorable ratings for Clinton as well as the Republican-controlled Congress--also stands in the way of Democrats’ achieving what amounts to their holy grail: recapturing control of the House of Representatives. That body had been their most dependable national power base for 40 years, before they lost it in the stunning GOP triumph in the 1994 midterm elections.

“In 1994, we were sailing into a big head wind,” said Democratic consultant Mark Mellman. “In 1996, we had a tail wind,” which helped the Democrats regain nine House seats.

But in 1998, with the economy perking along and peace reigning abroad, “I don’t think there is much of a wind at all,” Mellman said.

Of course, this placid prospect could be altered by an economic downturn at home or a crisis abroad before election day. But current indicators seem to undercut the prospect of the big turnovers that marked several past “six-year itch” elections, in which voters clearly vented their frustration at the party controlling the White House by taking a heavy toll on that party’s strength on Capitol Hill.

“The public is generally content,” acknowledged Rep. John Linder of Georgia, chairman of the House Republican campaign committee. “They had their six-year itch election in 1994.”

Mindful of the national mood, Republican strategists have no plans for a rewrite of 1994’s “contract with America,” the list of conservative goals that served as a rallying point for GOP candidates as they marched toward the historic sweep of both houses of Congress.

“I don’t think we’ll have a national manifesto,” Linder said. “We are going to run a lot of local elections.”

On the issue front, Republicans are hoping to pick up support by pushing the drive they began this year to overhaul the federal Tax Code. But by promoting their own plans for tax revision, Democrats expect to blunt that offensive. “As long as we can pick out areas of tax reform, we’ll be OK,” asserts Rep. Martin Frost of Texas, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Reflecting on the order of battle in national politics, Louisiana State University political scientist James Campbell said: “I think we are at kind of a standoff.”

Even open seats in the 435-member House--always prime targets for each party--divide evenly. As of now, 12 Democrats and 11 Republicans have announced they are not seeking reelection.

Despite the apparent impasse, the GOP remains optimistic of making at least modest gains next fall. In part, that’s because the incumbent president’s party almost invariably loses seats in the election year after a presidential election.

Indeed, only once in this century has the president’s party not lost ground in an off-year election--in 1934, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was battling the Great Depression and voters rewarded Democrats with gains of nine seats in both the House and Senate.

In 1998, there is also the matter of money. The Republican House campaign committee expects to raise about $26 million, roughly double what the Democrats will raise. And that’s just part of an overall GOP financial edge--the Democratic National Committee, unlike its Republican counterpart, is operating in red ink, largely because of legal expenses arising from disclosures of the party’s 1996 fund-raising practices.

Democratic officials have tried to shrug off this disadvantage. “We don’t need to outspend [Republicans]; we only need to have enough money to communicate a solid message,” said Rob Engel, director of the Democratic House campaign committee.

The fact that Democrats only need to win 11 seats to regain control of the House, party officials say, is helping them recruit strong candidates attracted by the chance to be part of a new majority.

But even these officials concede Democrats face an uphill fight, causing some to argue that if they are to gain ground on Capitol Hill, they need to break through the public’s indifference by running political risks.

Discussing the mood of the voters, Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, chairman of the Democratic Senate campaign committee, said: “It’s worse than contentment. It’s that they don’t believe that any of this matters.”

He added: “We have to show that we have the courage to do the right thing, not just the politically right thing.” He cited entitlement reform as the sort of sensitive issue Democratic candidates should tackle. “You need to shake things up.”

Whatever tactics Democrats choose, continued Republican control of the Senate seems assured, most analysts say. The only question is whether the GOP can expand its 55-45 margin, and the answer depends on the outcome of a dozen or so races scattered around the country. As the campaign year dawns, these races divide into three categories:

Open Seats: Democrats are confident they can replace retiring Republican Sen. Dan Coats of Indiana with former Gov. Evan Bayh, the widely popular son of a former Democratic senator from the state. Similarly, in Ohio, Republicans expect two-term GOP Gov. George Voinovich, a proven vote-getter, to succeed retiring Democrat John Glenn. Far more competitive are openings created by the departures of Democrats Wendell Ford in Kentucky and Dale Bumpers in Arkansas. These two battlegrounds, said Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, chairman of the Senate Republican campaign committee, “are among the least Republican of Southern states.”

Vulnerable Democrats: Republicans are aiming at three female Democratic incumbents--Barbara Boxer of California, Carol Moseley-Braun of Illinois and Patty Murray of Washington. GOP strategists also are drawing a bead on longtime incumbent Democrat Ernest F. Hollings of South Carolina, given the steady Republican voting trend in the Palmetto State. Other Democrats who may face tough races are Russell D. Feingold of Wisconsin and Harry Reid of Nevada.

Vulnerable Republicans: New York’s Alfonse M. D’Amato tops the Democratic hit list. But if 1984 vice presidential candidate Geraldine A. Ferraro, who officially announced her candidacy Monday, gets the nod in the Democratic primary as his challenger, her past ethical controversies could offset the charges of sleaziness her party would make against D’Amato. Democrats are also hopeful of unseating Lauch Faircloth in North Carolina and Christopher S. Bond in Missouri.

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Political Primer ’98

These Senate races are among the ones political professionals will be watching closely throughout the ’98 campaign:

California: Republicans say incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer is too liberal for the state, but concede she will be a formidable, well-funded campaigner. Boxer won her seat in part because of a split between the state GOP’s moderate and conservative ranks, and that divide still could thwart efforts to unseat her.

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New York: Alfonse M. D’Amato, seen by many as the most vulnerable GOP incumbent, may face a high-profile challenge from Geraldine A. Ferraro. But D’Amato has defied predictions of his political demise in the past.

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Washington: Patty Murray is another incumbent Democrat who could be hurt by her strong liberal record. But she can be expected to depict her likely GOP challenger, Rep. Linda Smith, as an ultra-right-winger.

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Illinois: Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun made history as the first black woman elected to the Senate. But her image has been battered by ethical missteps.

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North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Lauch Faircloth is a longtime ally of the Tarheel State’s senior GOP senator, Jesse Helms. But Faircloth has yet to match Helms’ hold on voters.

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Six-Year Itch

With Bill Clinton serving the sixth year of his presidency in 1998, history will be with the GOP in the November vote. Traditionally, the party occupying the White House suffers losses in Congress in the sixth year of its control.

1958

White House: Republican

Democratic gains (seats):

House: 52

Senate: 14

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1966

White House: Democratic

Republican gains (seats):

House: 47

Senate: 3

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1974

White House: Republican

Democratic gains (seats):

House: 41

Senate: 4

*

1986

White House: Republican

Democratic gains (seats):

House: 5

Senate: 8