Alarcon-Katz Victor Hinges on Absentees

With neither side claiming victory, the San Fernando Valley’s state Senate race remained too close to call Wednesday with City Councilman Richard Alarcon leading former Assemblyman Richard Katz by 791 votes, with thousands of absentee ballots outstanding.

It could take weeks for the county registrar-recorder to count the approximately 100,000 outstanding absentee, write-in and provisional ballots countywide. Election officials could not estimate how many were from the 20th state Senate District, the scene of the bruising Katz-Alarcon race.

At least at City Hall on Wednesday, Alarcon received a winner’s welcome, with council colleagues applauding as he entered the council chambers and Mayor Richard Riordan and other supporters calling to congratulate him.

He called the race a turning point for the northeast Valley--heavily Latino neighborhoods which, he said, haven’t previously won the political respect they deserve.

“I am only hopeful that people in the northeast Valley now know they have this ability to impact the process,” Alarcon said.

Katz declined to comment Wednesday, referring all questions to his campaign staff, who said Katz was spending the day relaxing with friends.

“We remain optimistic that there is a chance to win this election,” said Howard Gantman, a consultant for the Katz campaign, which paid special attention to absentees. “From our point of view, it’s still extremely close. There are still a lot of ballots out, and we will be watching the results closely as they come in.”

The Katz campaign conducted an aggressive outreach to absentee voters while Alarcon focused on a get-out-the-vote effort that relied on a 130-member phone bank and 800 volunteers working through the weekend.

In unofficial returns, Alarcon had 50.6% of the vote with 35,871, while Katz had 49.4% or 35,080 votes.

The absentee count will begin today, with a series of updates coming almost daily until the final election results are certified sometime the week of June 29.

The reason for Katz’s optimism is that he held a nearly 2-to-1 lead over Alarcon in earlier absentee ballot results, those cast before Tuesday, which have been counted. If that trend holds up for absentees turned in Tuesday, which have not been counted, Katz could pull ahead.

“The initial absentees that came in weighed heavily in favor of Richard Katz, so we have to keep watching,” Gantman said.

Political consultants say Katz should not expect the same advantage in the uncounted votes because previous elections show that the ballots that are received on election day tend to more closely reflect the overall vote.

“I think Katz will make up some of the difference,” said Parke Skelton, a political consultant who had temporarily worked for the Katz campaign. “But I think it will be a diminished margin [in Alarcon’s favor].”

Although Alarcon downplayed the role of the Latino vote in the race, election returns showed his base of support was in the heavily Latino northeast Valley.

The 20th state Senate District includes the heavily Jewish 40th Assembly District in the largely middle-class southwest Valley and the heavily Latino 39th Assembly District in the northeast Valley.

Both camps acknowledged that Alarcon’s support was primarily in the 39th Assembly District, where 40% of the voters are Latino. Katz, meanwhile, prevailed in the 40th Assembly District, which is about 80% white voters.

Latino turnout for the district was not available, but Latinos represented 12% of the vote statewide, an increase from the 8% turnout in the 1996 primary and the 6% Latino turnout in the 1994 primary.

Katz’s campaign staff continued to criticize Alarcon for injecting race into the campaign. They specifically complained about a campaign mailer that was sent on Alarcon’s behalf by state Sen. Richard Polanco (D-Los Angeles), head of the state Latino political caucus and an Alarcon ally.

Polanco pumped $181,500 into Alarcon’s campaign in the last week before Tuesday’s primary, or 30% of Alarcon’s totals.

The Polanco mailer was sent to Latino households and attempted to tie Katz to Gov. Pete Wilson and an incident in Orange County where guards were stationed near polls in an apparent attempt to frighten off immigrant voters.

“What was outrageous was some of the mailers that came in at the last minute, basically trying to link Richard Katz to Pete Wilson as people who would oppose Latinos voting when in fact Richard Katz led the fight to keep Wilson from cracking down [on immigrants] at the polls,” said Gantman.

In the final days of the campaign, Alarcon received heavy criticism for a last-minute mailer that showed the councilman and his wife receiving Communion from Cardinal Roger Mahony.

On Tuesday, Mahony issued a news release, criticizing Alarcon for using the photograph for campaign purposes without the cardinal’s permission.

“I am very troubled that this photograph is being interpreted by those who see it as my endorsement of your campaign for the California state Senate,” Mahony said. “I cannot allow my photograph to be used for such blatant political purposes.”

Alarcon said he planned to apologize to Mahony after the campaign.

“The point of the photograph was not to express an endorsement of the cardinal,” Alarcon said. “My point was to express who I am.”

Katz and Alarcon are vying for the Democratic nomination to replace state Sen. Herschel Rosenthal (D-Los Angeles), who is being forced out by term limits.

In the open primary, Republican Ollie McCaulley, who received 12,762 votes or 15%, won the GOP nomination. Libertarian candidate Linda Starr, with 3,088 votes or 4%, won her party’s nomination.

The 20th Senate District, which stretches from Sylmar to Studio City to Reseda, is considered a safe Democratic district. The primary winner is therefore almost assured a victory in the general election in November.

Times staff writers Jill Leovy, T. Christian Miller and Jeff Leeds contributed to this story.

* VALLEY VOTERS: Local preferences reflect statewide results. A20