‘X’ Marks the No. 1 Spot, but How Long?

The summer box-office temperature just got hotter--finally--as both “The X-Files” movie and “Mulan” charged in with impressive debut weekends.

Like Trekkers, X-Philes showed their support for agents Mulder and Scully and made them No. 1, shelling out an estimated $31 million to witness their big-screen adventure in 2,626 theaters for an average of almost $12,000 a screen.

Disney animation devotees reversed the downward trend of the studio’s recent cel output with the Asian adventure “Mulan” debuting at No. 2, with approximately $23 million in 2,888 theaters for a per-screen average of almost $8,000. (Factor in that many of the admissions were kids’ tickets and matinee prices for adults with them.)

Reviewers may have been mixed on “The X-Files,” but the marketing was subtle and enticing enough to bring “X” veterans and new recruits. (For a report on what “X-Files” fans are saying on the Internet, see story on F10.) Still, 75% of ticket buyers were regular viewers of the show and 60% were 25 and older, said Fox vice chairman Thomas Sherak.

That makes sense, since the plot requires that viewers pay attention. The film dropped 18% from Friday to Saturday, “usually not a good sign,” says Sherak, except that X-Philes showed up in such large numbers for opening night that some falloff could have been anticipated. But it also means that the film might have trouble bringing in new fans.

“We’re kind of in new waters. This is the first time we’ve had a major movie of an active TV show,” Sherak says.

One possible comparison would be the most recent “Star Trek” film, which had a comparable debut and then peaked just short of $100 million. But “Star Trek” opened in late 1996, and summer has big midweek business through late August. The potential for $100 million is certainly there, and exit polls indicated that young men in particular approved of what they saw.

Even if “Mulan” drops dramatically, it should bring in $100 million, based on its opening weekend, which was $2 million higher than “Hercules” and “The Hunchback of Notre Dame,” both of which managed to make it to that mark. “Mulan” came nowhere close to the $29.5-million opening of “Pocahontas” in 1995, but Buena Vista distribution chief Phil Barlow says the satisfaction level is better than any of the company’s past several animation attempts, indicating “Mulan” could hang in through the fall.

The big question on industry minds for both “The X-Files” and “Mulan” is how well they’ll be able to withstand the cruel summer competition. Next month is an unusually power-packed July, starting with “Armageddon” on July 1. “The X-Files” will need many more serious converts to hold off that doomsday movie and “Lethal Weapon 4” (July 10).

Staying power is becoming an increasingly nagging problem. Even with the excellent variety of films, business for the top 10 is up only slightly over last year. And witness how this weekend’s openings affected other recent significant debuts--all of them declining 35% or more.

“The Truman Show,” which held the No. 1 position for two weeks, was knocked into third, taking a 38% hit to $12.4 million in its third weekend. Its total is $85.2 million.

But after that it’s hard to say how much life “Truman” has in him. He’s no “Forrest Gump.” Or perhaps summer wasn’t the best time for “Truman” to appear. Jim Carrey’s biggest hit, “Liar Liar,” had the spring of 1997 all to itself.

“Six Days, Seven Nights” seems to be following the attendance pattern as that of “A Perfect Murder,” which opened a week earlier. The romantic adventure dropped 36% to $10.5 million in its second weekend, for $34.2 million total. In its third weekend, “A Perfect Murder” fell another 35% to an anticipated $7.3 million and $46.4 million.

The teen comedy “Can’t Hardly Wait” is sinking fast, losing half its business in the second weekend, to $4 million, with $16.2 million to date. But “Hope Floats” continues to be buoyant, with $3.2 million, and $44.3 million after a month.

“Godzilla” is struggling, with $2.8 million in its fifth weekend, a 55% decline from last week, and $129 million so far. It will have to beg its way to $140 million, whereas “Deep Impact” will get there in a walk considering its seventh-weekend gross of $2.7 million, $133 million to date.

“Deep Impact” was running neck and neck on Sunday with 10th-place “The Horse Whisperer,” also at $2.7 million in 1,852 theaters (only a 32% drop) for $63.2 million so far.

The only other large-scale debut was Miramax’s “Hav Plenty,” which got off to a shaky $1.1 million start on 413 screens, despite generally good reviews. Perhaps this one needed to start off slower and build on word of mouth.

And another milestone of note: After 27 weeks in the Top 10, “Titanic” finally sailed off the edge, but still managed to squeeze another $1 million on only 810 screens for $585.5 million domestically to date. Ahead are discount runs, which should take it to $600 million, and a video debut in early September, which should shatter a few more records.