Predicting Poppies Is Impossible

Spring wildflowers are busting out all over in the wake of the El Nino deluge. Hillsides from the desert to the sea are already sprouting the poppies, goldfields, sand verbenas and other colorful by-products of a rain soaked winter.

Ironically, there is no joy--at least not yet--at the most famous wildflower spot in Southern California.

At the Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve--which in a bountiful year attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors from as far away as Japan--officials still don’t know if the poppies that can turn its fields into vast carpets of orange will show up in abundance this spring.

“People expect it because of all the rain,” said John Crossman, resource ecologist for Mojave Desert State Parks, which oversees the reserve situated about 15 miles west of Lancaster. “We are already getting calls.”

But the poppy that brings tourists to the area is a fickle flower.

“Rainfall is not the only factor,” said Crossman, adding that the rainfall total at the reserve this season, so far, has been almost 20 inches.

“In ‘95, we had just over 20 inches, and that was a good year. In ‘93, we had over 25 inches, and that was not a good poppy year. In ‘91, we had only about 12 inches, and that was one of the best years of all.”

Crossman’s sigh could be heard over the phone.

“You can never say for sure what will happen.”

Sun Valley nursery manager Dustin Alcala can hazard a guess as to why the native poppies might not flourish at the reserve in a heavy rain year.

“The problem is that they have a large population of non-native grasses growing up there in the reserve,” said Alcala, who works at the Theodore Payne Foundation, a nursery dedicated to preserving and distributing indigenous plants.

“During heavy rain seasons, these grasses have a tendency to grow up very quickly and crowd out the poppies,” Alcala said.

Crossman agreed that the grasses are a problem. As an experiment, rangers have arranged for specific areas of the reserve to be cleared with planned fires.

“During the last four years we’ve been trying that,” Crossman said. “I think it has helped.”

Crossman believes several factors, in addition to rainfall and high-growing grasses, contribute to the outcome of the reserve’s poppy show. “I think the ambient temperature--how warm it is over a period of time--and wind and cloud cover all play a role. It’s not a simple thing.”

Especially in an El Nino year.

“Then everything goes topsy-turvy,” he said. “I’m not sure what helps or hurts.”

It certainly hurts Antelope Valley businesses if the poppies are a no-show.

“It is a nice boost in good years,” said Lancaster Mayor Frank Roberts. “We get tax revenue from people staying in local hotels, and the restaurants enjoy good crowds.”

The mayor, Crossman and other fans of the reserve don’t have much longer to wait before they know just how good the season will be. It usually peaks by mid-April and lasts into May.

Lancaster city officials, in particular, hope that there are plenty of poppies on view in time for the annual California Poppy Festival at the reserve, which will be held April 18-19.

But even if there aren’t, the mayor expects the festival to be a big draw.

“You know, it doesn’t seem to make a big difference,” Roberts said. “It’s springtime, and people are so happy to get out of [Los Angeles] and come on up to a rural area that they come anyway.”

Pressed to hazard a guess at how the upcoming poppy season will turn out, Crossman obliged with a cautious prediction.

“I think [the peak] might be a little late,” he said. “We are seeing some poppies on the east side of the reserve, but we don’t have many near the visitors’ center. On the whole, it might not be as spectacular as in ’91 or ‘95, but I think it could be good.”

The visitors’ center at the reserve is officially open from March 15-May 1. The fee for entering the grounds is $5 per car.

The reserve’s information line, (805) 724-1180, gives recorded updates on the poppies to callers, as does the Mojave Desert State Parks Web page at https://www.calparksmojave.com