Democrats Exult in Victories as GOP Takes Stock of Losses

By JANET HOOK

Nov. 5, 1998 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

WASHINGTON —

Chastened Republicans on Wednesday sifted through the wreckage of House and Senate elections that weakened their congressional leadership, undercut their impeachment proceedings and cast a long shadow over their legislative agenda.

“We have to look carefully at what happened and at what lessons Republicans have to learn,” said House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). Reflecting on the poor GOP showing, he added: “I think the drive toward becoming a [Republican] majority is now a little more in doubt, frankly.”

Although Republicans retained control of Congress, their apparent loss of five seats in the House and their failure to gain any seats in the Senate was a stunning disappointment that bucked seemingly entrenched patterns. The results reopened ideological divisions within the party and sparked a round of recriminations that could fuel a move to dump Gingrich or other GOP leaders.

Immediately, the failed bid by the Republicans to make President Clinton’s sex scandal a national campaign issue is expected to hobble the drive to impeach him.

“What impeachment?” Rep. Mark E. Souder (R-Ind.) asked, only partly in jest.

Longer term, the party’s hair’s-breadth majority in the House hampers Gingrich at a time when Republicans are already struggling to coalesce around a winning agenda.

“One of the lessons for Republicans is that we need to listen more carefully to the people and that we need to have a clear, concise message,” said Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.).

But the emerging debate over what that message should be is pitting conservatives, who want an agenda of aggressive tax cuts and opposition to abortion, against GOP moderates, who want a more centrist platform stressing issues such as education reform. Leaders of each side insisted that Tuesday’s results proved their point, a sign that Republicans will not resolve their disputes any time soon.

“It’s going to be diametrically opposed philosophies,” lamented Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.).

Democrats Bask in Midterm Gains

Democrats, meanwhile, exulted in their virtually unprecedented gains--especially in the South, where they staunched the hemorrhaging of recent years. Democrats defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth in North Carolina, turned back a challenge to veteran Democratic Sen. Ernest F. Hollings in South Carolina, held on to an open Senate seat in Arkansas and captured governorships in Alabama and South Carolina, among other victories in Dixie.

It was almost a throwback to the days when the Solid South was a Democratic stronghold, not the cornerstone of Republican power.

Democrats said that Tuesday’s gains, though modest, laid the groundwork for the party to recapture control of the House in 2000.

“Today is the first day of Campaign 2000,” said House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.). “The days of the Republican majority are numbered.”

At the least, the midterm election made history: It was the first since 1934 in which the party controlling the White House did not lose some seats in Congress.

Still, for all the broad implications of the results, they actually produced very little change in the balance of power in Congress. Indeed, the vote was a ringing endorsement of incumbency.

In the House, only six members were defeated: five Republicans (Reps. Jon D. Fox of Pennsylvania, Michael Pappas of New Jersey, Bill Redmond of New Mexico, Vince Snowbarger of Kansas and Rick White of Washington) and one Democrat (Rep. Jay W. Johnson of Wisconsin).

One House race, an open seat previously held by a Democrat in Oregon, remained too close to call, though the Democratic candidate was leading. If that seat does not change parties, Democrats will have picked up five seats and the GOP majority will shrink to a margin of 223 to 211, with one Independent who usually votes with the Democrats.

In the Senate, the party breakdown remains 55 Republicans and 45 Democrats.

Earlier this year, emboldened by the sex scandal that sparked the impeachment proceedings against Clinton, some Republicans predicted that the GOP would gain as many as 40 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate.

In their election post-mortems, GOP leaders did not try to hide their disappointment or sugarcoat the setbacks.

Gingrich and Lott both acknowledged that they had badly miscalculated and that the party should have offered voters a more crisply defined agenda.

“Things were happening out there that none of us fully understood,” Gingrich said, citing the surprise election of Independent candidate Jesse “The Body” Ventura as Minnesota governor. “We probably should have almost maniacally focused on cutting taxes, reforming government, working on saving Social Security.”

Democrats Cited for Boosting Turnout

GOP strategists also acknowledged that the Democrats did a better job of getting their supporters to the polls.

And Rep. John Linder of Georgia, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, even conceded that his party’s decision last week to run ads that sought to fuel public anger over Clinton’s affair with Monica S. Lewinsky was a mistake.

“If I were to do it over again, I probably would have moved some money off TV and moved more into turnout [efforts],” he said.

Exit polls of voters underscored the miscalculation, finding that a majority disapprove of Congress’ handling of the Clinton controversy.

The vote results led some Republicans to predict that support among lawmakers for impeaching Clinton will plummet.

“I think politically it’s highly unlikely that impeachment is going to be reported out of the Judiciary Committee, given what happened” Tuesday, said GOP political consultant Ralph Reed. “You don’t have to be a brilliant strategist to know that this was a dead end.”

Certainly, the hope for a quick disposition of the matter has grown. “None of us desired to drag this thing out,” said Rep. David Dreier (R-San Dimas).

Creating as much buzz on Capitol Hill on Wednesday as the fate of impeachment was the question of whether rank-and-file Republicans will take out their frustration over Tuesday’s results on their leadership. Many lawmakers, especially conservatives, accused their leaders of alienating core GOP supporters--and thereby hurting the party’s political prospects--by giving up too much in the recent year-end budget deal with Clinton.

Some Republicans already are sounding out colleagues about possibly challenging Gingrich, House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) and other congressional leaders when they run for reelection to their posts as the next Congress convenes in January.

Maneuvering for Leadership

Possible challengers who have begun maneuvering, GOP sources said, are Rep. Robert L. Livingston (R-La.), a senior committee chairman; Rep. David M. McIntosh (R-Ind.), a leader of the House conservative faction; and Rep. Steve Largent (R-Okla.), another conservative activist.

“I absolutely believed before the election that Gingrich was untouchable,” said Souder, a conservative. “But when you lose five seats, everything is on the table.”

Responding to threats of a challenge, Gingrich argued that it would make no sense to dump him or other sitting leaders because they were the first team in 70 years to keep the House in Republican hands for three consecutive terms.

“The people who are normally [involved] in this are people who would in fact take the party to a narrower base with fewer members,” Gingrich said.

Lott also brushed aside suggestions that he or Gingrich might be challenged. “Finding a person to do a better job . . . is easier said than done,” he said.

Another option being considered is dumping Linder as GOP campaign committee chairman and stripping Gingrich of the power to fill that key political post.

Both Lott and Gingrich argued that the most constructive response to the party’s electoral disappointments would be to retool the GOP agenda and push it more aggressively.

But there are sharp disagreements about what that Republican message should be, pitting party pragmatists--including governors such Texas’ George W. Bush, Michigan’s John Engler, Wisconsin’s Tommy Thompson and some moderates in Congress--against more ideological conservatives, who have their power base on Capitol Hill.

‘Pro-Family Agenda’ Called Neglected

Religious conservatives argued Wednesday that the party’s failure at the ballot box was the result of its lackluster support for a “pro-family agenda,” and they urged GOP leaders to push harder next year to cut taxes for married couples and to pass anti-abortion legislation and education tax breaks.

“If the 106th Congress doesn’t take up pro-family issues and talk about them, not just for one day but day in and day out, things are going to get worse before they get better,” said Randy Tate, executive director of the Christian Coalition. “Our people aren’t just wind-up dolls that you just wind them up and they go vote for certain particular candidates. You can’t cut a budget deal two weeks before the election and expect people to be motivated to go to the polls.”

But moderate Republicans argued that that strategy misses the point of the election. They want the party to take their cues from the success of Republican governors, who have pursued a less ideological agenda.

“Look at the reason the governors have been successful,” said LaHood, a moderate Republican. “It’s because they focused on issues that affect the everyday lives of average families: women’s issues, education, children’s issues. We don’t, and we haven’t succeeded.”

Democrats, meanwhile, hope the election will create a climate more hospitable to their legislative wish list, including aid for school construction, environmental protection and shoring up Social Security.

“This is a big agenda,” said Vice President Al Gore, “and I think that part of the message from the election last night was [to] get on with that agenda.”

Times staff writers Ronald Brownstein, Edwin Chen, Ann L. Kin, Alissa J. Rubin, Robert Shogan and Elizabeth Shogren contributed to this story.

Audio analysis from Times political writers, video excerpts from candidates’ speeches and a discussion about the election results are on The Times Web site: https://www.latimes.com/elect98

MORE ELECTION COVERAGE

Special Section / Decision ‘98: The Final Count looks at the election and carries complete results. At right, Barbara Boxer is congratulated. S1

Sheriff’s Promise: Newly elected L.A. County Sheriff Lee Baca vows to push for an independent inspector general to investigate problems in the jails. B1

Economic Impact: The Democrats’ success in California has broad implications. Gray Davis has the savvy to lead the next expansion, James Flanigan writes. C1

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Voter turnout

Here are the percentages of eligible voters who cast ballots in elections from 1960 to 1996.

Midterm elections

‘98: 38.0%

‘94: 38.8%

‘90: 36.5%

‘86: 36.4%

‘82: 40.1%

‘78: 37.8%

‘74: 38.8%

‘70: 46.8%