Election Sends GOP Back to Square One

California Republicans woke up last week with the parched look of people lost in the desert. They scanned the skies. They weren’t looking for rain, but merely for a cloud from which to grab a silver lining.

Still reeling days after a smashing defeat in California--a mere four years after the heady time when they controlled both the governor’s office and one house of the Legislature--party leaders here are unanimous in their denunciation of their own candidates’ disabilities and their party’s lack of a coherent message.

The silver lining was still eluding them as the week closed, but at least a strategy was beginning to take shape: Come up, belatedly, with a comprehensive education reform package, and hope like crazy that Democrat Gray Davis and his legislative allies overplay their hand. A little economic downturn wouldn’t hurt, either.

But those were just the bare outlines of forward movement, and filling in all the details will be troublesome indeed. The electoral debacle has laid bare all the fissures hidden from view in the party’s successful years, and most expect difficulties in the years ahead.

The schisms, and the proposals for restoring Republican strength, mirror the debate going on nationally in the wake of House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s resignation.

“I expect Republicans to do what they always do--circle the wagons and aim their guns inside, unfortunately,” said Assemblywoman Barbara Alby, who, as one of two Republican National Committee members from California, is the highest-ranking woman in the party structure here.

“People are going to look at postelection surveys and blame each other.”

There certainly was enough blame to go around, given the 20-point loss by state Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren in the governor’s race, a 10-point loss by state Treasurer Matt Fong in the contest with U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer and a near-Democratic sweep of the other statewide offices.

There were some voices of optimism, namely that of John McGraw, the Atherton activist who will take over as party chairman in February.

“After getting our butts kicked as we did, this is no time for internal fighting,” he said in an interview. “This is the time for a meeting of the minds, and unanimity, and going forward together.”

But political reality, as McGraw acknowledged, is a bit more complicated, and cuts to the heart of how the Republican Party here sees itself. The answer: It depends on who’s holding the mirror.

Some elements of the party advocate playing to the most dependable voters, conservatives, with issues like affirmative action. But others note that pressing issues like that only alienates the party from minority voters and the moderates who defected to the Democrats this year.

Some suggest a Reaganesque return to emphasizing tax cuts, and playing down divisive social issues. Some counter that, with even the Democrats espousing support for a balanced budget, the social issues represent the most stark choice between the parties.

Some suggest a move to the center. Some suggest a move to the right. Some throw up their hands and say the party needs to simply figure out what it stands for and stand for it.

“What was lacking Tuesday was only reflective of what was lacking overall in all the days that led up to that: The Republican Party has to first of all decide on what it represents,” said Ward Connerly, the party’s finance chairman. “For the last six years, the party has been very, very ill-equipped to define issues that define the party.”

Even defining the party for the broad consumption of voters will be problematic. Michael Der Manouel Jr., state GOP vice chairman, said that for the first time in a generation Republicans have no high-ranking titular leader.

“We are not headed by a governor or a senator, and we will be looking to a small pool of legislators . . . and a lot of high-profile volunteers will be running the shop,” he said. “That in itself provides challenges.”

The most titanic struggle is likely to be over how Republicans go about trying to attract moderate voters. Among some in the party, particularly the strategists who try to mold candidates into winners, there is a strong desire to broaden the discussion to issues that have been given short shrift in the past.

“Gray Davis won on the death penalty and three strikes, for God’s sakes,” said one strategist, underscoring how Democrats have moved toward Republican positions on some key issues. “Rather than welcoming the Democrats to our policies, what we’re doing is scrambling farther and farther right. But there’s not too much room over there.”

That strategist, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity, favors pressing ahead on issues such as education, health care and children’s programs. But others in the party suggest a simultaneous emphasis on the social issues--such as abortion--that have splintered the party in the past.

“I think that some of the more conservative family issues that the Republican Party has been trying to shove aside need to be brought to the forefront,” said Kathy Walker, chairwoman of the Riverside County Republicans and head of the association of county party leaders.

Incoming chairman McGraw, mindful of the splits of the past, indicated that he is not keen to focus anew on social concerns. “That’s not going to be one of the unifying messages,” he said.

One issue touted by Republicans of varied ideological stripes is education, which serves multiple purposes. Not only is it the most important issue in the minds of most voters, it is an issue particularly attractive to the independent and moderate voters who swing from party to party, depending on the candidate. Minority voters, too, have shown a huge interest in education.

During the recently concluded campaign, neither of the two major Republican candidates focused much on education, to the bafflement of others in their party. Lungren talked often about holding teachers and schools accountable and of improving the state’s community colleges, but he touched on the subject only superficially in his television ads. Fong, too, offered only generalities on education.

Now, however, improving California’s woeful schools system is wholly in the hands of Democrats, from Davis to the Democrat-controlled Legislature to Schools Supt. Delaine Eastin. In that, Republicans see hope.

“If test scores don’t come up in two to four years, we’re going to hang this around their necks,” said Der Manouel. “If Hispanic numbers don’t come up, if urban schools don’t improve, they will be fully responsible for that, and we will take the message to all groups.”

Der Manouel and McGraw predicted that Republicans in the Legislature will move aggressively to provide alternatives to Democratic moves on education and other issues. Others suggest that more than simple boldness is demanded.

“Frankly, I have seen the enemy and he is us,” said committeewoman Alby. “We need to let people see our heart. We have got to stop talking like clinicians, and anybody who doesn’t have a heart in our party ought to step aside.”

Alby, like several other Republicans, offered the example of Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Bush, who called himself a “compassionate conservative,” won a resounding reelection Tuesday, garnering about half of the Latino votes--twice the percentage that Lungren managed to attract.

“We’ve got to start talking about what we care about,” Alby added. “It’s not enough to be right. You have to be popular, too, or all you get to be is right and a loser.”

Popularity is something Republicans need to accomplish quickly if they are to succeed in one fast-approaching contest, the year 2000 race for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Democrat Dianne Feinstein, who is expected to run for reelection.

But in addition to smashing Republican spirits, the election Tuesday did damage to GOP prospects for that race, since few Republicans survived in high-profile positions from which they can mount an aggressive campaign. In a dozen interviews with Republicans last week, most offered a half-hearted “I don’t know” when asked the party’s strongest candidates for Senate in 2000 and governor in 2002.

“It’s not the strongest bench that we’ve got,” Connerly said.

But some found a silver lining nonetheless. The depth of the repudiation by voters, some Republicans said, had prompted rounds of conversations. And not about the sort of definition wordplay that has occupied some in the past, like whether to describe education vouchers as opportunity scholarships. The talk now is far more basic.

“For the first time, it’s ‘How the hell do we win?’ ” one Republican consultant said.