A LOOK AHEAD * Although the impending loss of key figures on the L.A. City Council may appear to pose a crisis, term limits in Sacramento could mean . . . Changing Latino Political Picture Offers Opportunity

On the surface, it looks as if Los Angeles’ fastest-growing minority community is in danger of losing its influence on the City Council.

Richard Alarcon is expected to win election to the state Senate next month. Mike Hernandez says that he will leave public life when his current term is over. Now, Richard Alatorre faces new accusations of drug abuse.

But look deeper, and what seems like an emerging crisis in representative democracy looks more like the beginning of a new era for the Latino community:

Currently eyeing local offices are Antonio Villaraigosa, the speaker of the state Assembly; Richard Polanco, state senator and powerful Sacramento deal maker; Gil Cedillo, labor leader-turned-state Assemblyman; Tony Cardenas, a state Assemblyman considered part of the new generation of Latino politicians, and Xavier Becerra, a Democratic U.S. congressman.

The reason for their interest is simple--term limits.

With that voter-approved reform forcing many seasoned Sacramento politicians out of office, the City Council could be the next step for these career legislators looking to come home to new--albeit temporary--political posts.

While term limit supporters believed that shorter political tours would widen the field for newcomers and discourage careerists, in fact, it has become little more than a game of high-stakes political musical chairs. “Termed-out” lawmakers in Sacramento even have a phrase for it: to go up or go home.

As a result, many analysts and political consultants say an unprecedented number of heavy hitters from Sacramento, and even Washington, will come home. They may be here for a term or two, win some local name recognition and attempt runs for mayor or Congress.

With their return, experts say, Latino politics in Los Angeles finally will come definitively of age.

“I think the future for the Latino community is very bright,” said Alan Clayton, a Latino redistricting expert. “There’s a lot of excitement out there. I think you’ll see a shift in the whole City Council in the next five years.”

To be sure, three of the 15 council seats will remain Latino, but some believe there could be as many as two or even three more openings for Latino candidates. The even-numbered council district seats--such as Alatorre’s Eastside district--are up for election this spring. The odd-numbered districts--such as Hernandez’s Lincoln Heights and Highland Park district--are up in 2001. At that time, the lawmakers in those seats will have reached the end of their council careers.

As a result, some say the chances are high for a Latino candidate to capture Rita Walters’ South Los Angeles district or even Jackie Goldberg’s Hollywood seat. Some go further, suggesting that a Latino could also win an election in Rudy Svorinich Jr.’s San Pedro district.

With some estimates predicting Latinos will make up 49.5% of the city’s population in three years and with increasing numbers of immigrants becoming citizens, experts say Latinos will be going to the polls like never before. And, nearly half of the high school graduates in Los Angeles County are Latinos, who presumably also will register to vote.

With notoriously low turnout in City Council elections, the Latino vote could have a significant political impact.

“There’s no question they will be voting in higher numbers,” said Harry Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, a think tank based at Claremont University’s graduate school. “In the past, you could say they’re gaining in numbers but they don’t vote. But there’s been a wave of new citizens coming onto the election rolls. Things are different now.”

Future Appears to Offer Promise

Coupled with a resurgence in Los Angeles’ organized labor movement and the proven track record of the Latino political alliances that already have elected legislators to posts in Sacramento and Washington, the face of Los Angeles local government is bound to change.

“It’s inevitable,” said Bill Mabie, Polanco’s chief aide. “If they come home, there will be a transition to a super powerful Latino representation on the City Council.”

But although the future appears full of promise, it is the present that has many concerned.

Alarcon, considered an effective advocate for the northeast San Fernando Valley, campaigned hard for the state Senate seat that he is expected to win in November’s election.

Hernandez, who was arrested last year on felony cocaine possession charges, is undergoing a rigorous recovery program for his admitted addictions to alcohol and cocaine.

And, Alatorre, who has previously said he has not used drugs in the last nine years, recently tested positive for cocaine in a surprise drug test administered as part of a guardianship case.

“In effect, the voices of the Latino council members have been neutered,” said a top City Hall lobbyist who spoke on condition of anonymity. “They’re basically devoid of leadership right now. I’d say the minority community, including the African Americans, are in an extreme period of transition.”

Dawning of a New Political Era

Political insider and former airport commissioner Dan Garcia, however, says it is difficult to determine the impact of the personal problems faced by both Alatorre and Hernandez.

Still, he says, the perception is negative.

“What the truth is compared to the perception is hard to tell,” Garcia said. “The reality is that it is a sociological phenomenon the extent to which Latino politics is starting to increase. That increase is more important than the personal problems of the councilmen.”

Others agree, saying that painting Latino representation with a broad brush is an inaccurate portrait of a community on the cusp of a new political era.

Fernando Guerra, a Loyola Marymount University professor and director of the Study of Los Angeles, said he believes Latino representation has to be examined from two perspectives: quantity and quality.

“Look at the quality right now: You have two seriously wounded because of drug problems and a third, while he was very effective, is a lame duck,” Guerra said. “In terms of quantity, we are at the height of Latino representation in the city. From [that] perspective, Latino representation has never been better and the future never brighter.”

Pachon, of the Tomas Rivera Institute, agrees.

“It’s quite easy to jump on the bandwagon and talk about weakness,” Pachon said. “That ignores the fact that there’s more than one year than just 1998 . . . . There’s a legacy.”

Wide Gains Have Been Made Statewide

Statewide, Latinos have made wide gains in securing elective offices with more than 750 holding positions, according to Clayton, the redistricting expert.

Those numbers are sure to grow, too, as new census data is collected and districts are reapportioned. Many believe California could pick up new congressional seats, which could also open the field to Latinos. Los Angeles also could have a Latino sheriff if Lee Baca wins his tight race against Sherman Block, and already there has been a shift from slates of all-white candidates to more Latinos in such areas as the San Gabriel Valley and the South Bay cities.

“Because of citizenship and voter registration drives, you’ll see Latinos being elected all over the area,” said Clayton, the research chair of the Latino Redistricting Coalition. “And, as you redraw the lines, you redraw communities.”

That’s why political consultants and analysts say traditionally white or African American council seats now could be open to Latino candidates.

Parke Skelton, a political consultant who has run several successful campaigns in East Los Angeles and other Latino areas, said he believes 60% of the voters in a low turnout election in Alatorre’s or Hernandez’s districts would be Latinos.

And, if voters approve a charter reform proposal to expand the City Council, the number of Latino seats would almost surely increase. One proposal by the appointed charter reform commission would enlarge the council to 19 members; a downtown business group seeks 35 members with seven to nine majority or near-majority Latino seats.

That’s a promising future, but not one that many take seriously.

Yet.

“The demographics of the city are still in flux,” said Anthony Chavez, an attorney with the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund.

“It’s too early to predict a major shift like that. But will the actual faces on the council change? Undeniably.”