Public Still Divided on El Toro, With Opinions Hardened

A UC Irvine poll released Thursday indicates that public opinion has hardened about plans for an international airport at El Toro, despite the release this spring of detailed proposals by airport supporters and foes.

The poll found 48% of those questioned oppose converting the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an airport, while 41% support the idea. The results show insignificant changes from UCI polls over the last two years.

“It’s surprising given so much effort put forth to move public opinion on this issue,” said UCI research associate Cheryl Katz, who helped conduct the poll.

Katz said the impasse has come about because neither the airport plan nor the opposition’s alternative proposal for parks, homes and offices has strong appeal to residents.

County voters approved a ballot measure in 1994 supporting an El Toro airport and rejected a 1995 measure that would have killed the airport plan. But South County leaders are talking about a third ballot measure in 1999 that would let the public choose between an airport and their nonaviation proposal, known as the Millennium Plan.

The UCI poll also found the northern and southern portions of the county continue to be deeply divided over the issue. North County residents supported the airport 47% to 40% while their South County counterparts vehemently oppose it, 71% to 25%.

Katz and UCI professor Mark Baldassare, who conducted the 17th Orange County Annual Survey together, said their results showed county residents have little confidence in the way the planning process is proceeding, even beyond the usual mistrust of government.

They found 29% of those polled approve of the way county government is dealing with the conversion, while 43% disapprove and 28% have no opinion.

“The county didn’t begin the base reuse planning process by trying to develop a broad-based public consensus,” Baldassare said in the poll report. “And it’s hard to go back now and have a reasoned debate about the pros and cons of an airport because attitudes seem to be pretty much set in stone.”

The poll found that even in the north, the heart of support for the airport, people are more likely to disapprove than approve of the county’s handling of the El Toro conversion, Katz said.

The poll interviewed 2,002 adults by telephone Sept. 1-13. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.

The county’s plan calls for an airport at El Toro that by 2020 could handle 25 million passengers a year. The Board of Supervisors is scheduled to take a final vote on the proposal in fall 1999.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

A House Divided

Where you stand depends on where you live, or so it would seem on the issue of converting El Toro Marine Corps Air Station to a commercial airport. Sentiment on the proposal to do so is split countywide. South County residents are heavily against the plan in all its manifestations; those living in North County are more evenly divided.

* Do you favor or oppose the plan to transform El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport?

*--*

Total North South Favor 41% 47% 24% Oppose 48% 40% 71% Don’t know 11% 13% 5%

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* Which of these two proposals for the reuse of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station do you prefer: a plan for educational and recreational facilities and open space that includes an airport; or a plan for residential, commercial, educational and recreational facilities and open space that does not include an airport?

*--*

Total North South Include airport 40% 45% 28% No airport 51% 45% 67% Neither/other 4% 4% 3% Don’t know 5% 6% 2%

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* And which of these do you most prefer to meet Orange County’s air travel needs: continue to use John Wayne as Orange County’s only commercial airport; close John Wayne and develop El Toro as Orange County’s only commercial airport; or develop El Toro as an international airport and continue to use John Wayne as a commercial airport?

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Total North South John Wayne only 48% 41% 66% El Toro only 13% 14% 9% Both airports 32% 37% 21% Don’t know 7% 8% 4%

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* Do you approve or disapprove of the way that county government is handling the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station conversion issue?

*--*

Total North South Approve 29% 31% 22% Disapprove 43% 38% 57% Don’t know 28% 31% 21%

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Note: South County defined as Irvine and cities/communities south of it. Newport Beach considered in North County for airport-related issues.

Source: 1998 Orange County Annual Survey, UCI