Unemployment Rate Drops

Ventura County’s unemployment rate fell by almost 1% from September 1997 to 6.7% last month, bucking a nationwide weakening of the economy spurred by ongoing jitters in the global financial markets.

Although the number of unemployed county residents increased .2% in September from the month before, experts attribute that to a seasonal drop in farm-related jobs traditionally seen during the late summer and early fall.

“Historically, that has been the case, and there’s not that much that can be read into it,” said Dee Johnson of the state Employment Development Department, which released its monthly employment report Friday. “It’s related to the regular agricultural cycle.”

September’s unemployment figures, although slightly higher than August’s, were the lowest for that month since 1989.

Between September 1997 and September 1998, Ventura County gained more than 11,000 jobs, the bulk of which were clustered in non-farm sectors such as service, durable-goods manufacturing, transportation and government.

And that, experts said, illustrates a regional economy that is healthy and poised to make gains well into the next year.

“It has really been a good year for the county,” said Mary Riddel, a senior economist with the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, which monitors the Ventura County economy. “It’s been a broad-based expansion with a lot of growth in durable-goods manufacturing, which is a sign of a healthy economy.”

The county’s jobless rate paralleled the state’s figure of 6%, a number that surprised analysts who predicted a sharper increase statewide.

Durable-goods manufacturing, which typically offers some of the highest-paying jobs in the economy, increased 3.7% in September from the same period the year before. Most of the gain was centered in the production of industrial machinery, which added 900 jobs, and electronics, which bolstered its work force by 100.

But the greatest job growth by far occurred in the service-related sector, which grew by 4.4% with the addition of 8,700 jobs over the past year.

Ventura County has posted significant economic gains since the state pulled itself from the near-crippling recession of the early 1990s.

In addition to falling unemployment, home prices and sales have rocketed, more businesses are relocating to the area and incomes are increasing.

But fiscal crises in the Asian and South American markets as well as daily fluctuations in the stock market have caused some to question whether the long-term financial well-being will be so rosy.

Despite the Federal Reserves Board’s decision last month to cut interest rates from 5.5% to 5.25% to shield the nation’s economy from the global financial scourge, stock prices have continued to fluctuate widely, prompting some to hold on to their money rather than spend or invest it.

“Is that going to turn things around and affect job growth or the county economy?” Riddel said. “It’s hard to say.”

“The global markets will have an effect, but to what extent isn’t clear.”

Of greater concern to analysts who monitor the county’s economy are soaring home prices.

They fear that prices may soon outpace the pocketbooks of many, causing some out-of-county businesses to reconsider whether to locate in the county.

“Basically, if their workers can’t buy homes, they’re not going to come, which could have an effect at some point down the line,” Riddel said.

In the short term, the county’s jobless rate should remain about the same, as the area economy continues to pick up steam, although with less gusto than in previous months.

“Ventura County has had excellent growth over the past year, but things may begin to stabilize in the next year along with the nation’s economy,” Riddel said. “But there is no indication that things are going to change dramatically either way.”

* STATE JOBS: California payrolls expanded by 35,000 last month. A1

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Ventura County Jobless Rate

Sept. 1998: 6.7%

Source: California Employment Development Department