Sanchez Leads Dornan, but Is Short of Majority

Boosted by Latino support and her stand on abortion, Rep. Loretta Sanchez holds a substantial lead over Republican Robert K. Dornan in the race for her central Orange County congressional seat, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

The Garden Grove Democrat, who narrowly defeated Dornan two years ago, outpolled the former longtime congressman 48% to 34% among residents likely to vote in the Nov. 3 election.

But a sizable number of voters--17%--are still undecided. And among voters who are most likely to cast ballots in the 46th Congressional District race, Sanchez’s lead shrinks to 11 percentage points.

“Sanchez is within reach of winning the election, but she’s still short of a majority at this point, so there’s still room for movement at the last minute,” said Cheryl Katz, director of the Times Orange County Poll.

“The election could come down simply to who turns out to vote.”

Sanchez won two years ago by 984 votes, 46.7% to 45.8%, in a year when turnout in the district among Democrats surpassed the national average. This year Democratic turnout is expected to fall, as it typically does in nonpresidential elections. Two minor party candidates on the ballot are likely to drain some votes away from Sanchez and Dornan.

Latinos, who make up 23% of the district’s voters, played a big part in Sanchez’s 1996 victory, and they remain a big factor this time. The poll found that 68% of Latinos say they are inclined to vote for her.

But at least one national issue appears to be having little impact.

The poll found that voters, like counterparts around the country, are unswayed by the sex scandal swirling around President Clinton. Majorities in all parties and demographic groups in the district say the doings in Washington will not affect their vote.

Even so, the poll underscores the toll that Dornan’s long and bitter challenge to Sanchez’s victory two years ago has taken on both candidates. Among likely voters 47% have a favorable image of Sanchez, and 33% feel unfavorably toward her. Dornan’s unfavorable rating of 44% is even higher. Only 31% of voters have a favorable view of him.

Dornan had claimed that noncitizens voted illegally in the 1996 election. A House investigation found that more than 700 illegal votes were cast, not enough to invalidate the election.

“They both got to me with all the accusations they were making and all the mud they were slinging, to tell you the truth,” said Stanley Chin, 63, a Santa Ana resident who said he has yet to make up his mind between the two. “I’ll probably wait until pretty close to election time to decide. I need time to think. I mull things over.”

The Times poll interviewed 1,000 likely voters in the 46th Congressional District by telephone from Oct. 15 to 18. Among them, 800 were deemed most likely to vote. The margin of error for the whole sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For the most likely voters it is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Though Dornan’s 14-month-long effort to overturn the election gave both candidates black eyes, the challenge is not making a significant difference to many voters overall. Of those surveyed, 44% said it will not affect their vote. But among Latino voters, 41% say Dornan’s claims make them more likely to vote for Sanchez.

Dornan is “a big crybaby, he always has been,” Fidel Reyes, 64, of Garden Grove, said about the challenge. “I don’t think it was warranted myself, from my point of view being a minority. It was just a big waste of time and of tax money for the taxpayers. He proved nothing, nothing at all.”

Dornan’s challenge turned some Republicans off.

“I’m a registered Republican and normally I have those type of leanings, but I think [Dornan] is out of touch with reality, I really do,” said Oliver Taylor, 65, a Disneyland employee who lives in Garden Grove. “I think he was grasping at straws and it was kind of like the act of a desperate man.”

The abortion issue appears to help Sanchez. Only a quarter of likely voters say Dornan’s position against abortion rights makes them more likely to support him, while 42% say that Sanchez’s support for a woman’s right to choose makes them more inclined to vote for her.

Dornan’s bid to persuade Latinos, who are mostly Catholic, to vote for him because of his opposition to abortion has not been effective, according to the poll. Among Latinos, 43% say they are more likely to vote for Sanchez because of her views on abortion.

A majority of Democrats and nearly three in 10 Republicans say Sanchez’s position on abortion makes them more likely to vote for her. Four in 10 Republicans support Dornan’s view.

Roy Hull, 36, of Anaheim said he is a Republican who supports abortion rights but nevertheless plans to vote for Dornan. “Basically it’s [Sanchez’s] stance on immigration, on welfare, on education that swings me” against Sanchez, he said.

Julie Welsh, 72, of Santa Ana said she did not like Dornan’s style, but planned to vote for him anyway.

“On abortion, it’s a very emotional and a very difficult issue for everybody, but basically I believe that women have an extra responsibility to make sure they don’t get pregnant, and if they do, not to kill their babies,” Welsh said.

“It comes down to how he votes and what kind of government he believes in, which is the same thing I believe in,” she said.

Dornan’s biggest base of support among voters from both parties comes from those 55 and older, according to the poll. But even among those voters he still trails Sanchez by 5 percentage points.

Among women voters, Sanchez leads Dornan by 52% to 30%. Among voters younger than 35, Sanchez leads by even more, 56% to 26%. Voters who registered since the 1994 election favor Sanchez by a ratio of 2 to 1.

Those still sitting on the fence could well be the key to the race. But among the 17% who haven’t made up their minds, more have a favorable image of Sanchez (23%) than of Dornan (12%) and more favor her position on abortion (41%) than his (17%).

With 11 days to go in the campaign, Dornan and Sanchez both are working hard to persuade their supporters to turn out at the polls. Both candidates say they are loath to alienate voters by engaging in the bitter campaigning they did two years ago.

Sanchez has aired three television ads touting her record and her Anaheim roots, and sent half a dozen mailers on health care, crime, education and other issues. She has refused to debate Dornan and does not mention him by name in the mailers.

Sanchez and the Democrats are running phone banks and walking precincts urging people to come to the polls. The local Democratic Party alone says it has called tens of thousands of voters in the district.

Sanchez spokesman Lee Godown said Sanchez planned to push hard from now until election day to get voters to the polls.

“Loretta just got back from Washington and voting on the budget, and she will be coming back to the district” to work on winning over undecided voters, he said. She also will be “making sure that our base voters are still there and continue to support us,” Godown said.

Dornan and Orange County Republicans have so far run a less intense effort to get out the vote. But Dornan is appearing regularly at senior centers, Rotary Club luncheons and among veterans, who have been loyal supporters.

Encouraging people to come to the polls is “key for her, key for me,” Dornan said.

“If she can’t get out her base to vote for her, I win. If I can’t get out mine, she wins. It’s that simple.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Sanchez in Command

Rep. Loretta Sanchez has a sizable lead over Robert K. Dornan in the race for the 46th Congressional District seat, but many likely voters remain undecided:

* If the election for U.S. congressperson for your district were held today, would you vote for:

Loretta Sanchez: 48%

Bob Dornan: 34%

Other: 1%

Don’t know: 17%

Source: Times Orange County Poll

Dornan’s Challenge

Robert K. Dornan has a tough road ahead if he is to overtake Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s lead and win back his old congressional seat. She has much higher favorable ratings among the district’s likely voters. Also, his claim that he lost his seat because of illegally cast votes doesn’t sway many voters, and his stand on abortion is clearly less popular than Sanchez’s.

* Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Loretta Sanchez/Bob Dornan?

(percent saying favorable)

*--*

Sanchez Dornan Likely voters 47% 31% Democrats 66% 17% Republicans 25% 49% Latinos 64% 19% Others 44% 33%

*--*

* Dornan lost the congressional election in your district to Sanchez by a narrow margin in 1996. Dornan claims that he lost the election because of ballots cast by people who were not legally registered to vote. Does this claim make you more inclined to vote for Dornan or more inclined to vote for Sanchez, or does this make no difference to you?

*--*

Likely voters Dem Rep Latinos Others Vote for Dornan 22% 11% 39% 7% 25% Vote for Sanchez 29% 40% 15% 41% 26% No difference 44% 43% 41% 45% 45% Don’t know 5% 6% 5% 7% 4%

*--*

* Sanchez believes that the decision on abortion should be up to a woman and her doctor, while Dornan believes that abortion should be illegal in most circumstances. Do the candidates’ views on abortion make you more inclined to vote for Dornan or more inclined to vote for Sanchez, or does this make no difference to you?

*--*

Likely voters Dem Rep Latinos Others Vote for Dornan 26% 16% 41% Vote for Sanchez 42 53 28 No difference 27 27 25 Don’t know 5 4 6

*--*

Clinton No Factor

Most voters say President Clinton’s troubles won’t affect their vote, and a candidate’s stand on impeachment does not appear to be a decisive issue.

* How do you think the scandal involving President Clinton, and the ongoing congressional investigation of his actions, will affect your voting in your congressional district election? Do these events make you more inclined to vote for Dornan, the Republican, or more inclined to vote for Sanchez, the Democrat, or don’t these events affect your decision on who to vote for in November?

*--*

Likely voters Dem Rep Latinos Others Vote for Dornan 18% 7% 31% Vote for Sanchez 14 22 9 No difference 64 67 55 Don’t know 4 4 5

*--*

* Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports impeaching President Clinton or a candidate who opposes impeaching President Clinton, or does this make no difference to you?

*--*

Likely voters Dem Rep Latinos Others Supports impeachment 25% 13% 42% Opposes impeachment 29 40 14 No difference 40 42 36 Don’t know 6 5 8

*--*

Note: “Others” category comprised of mostly non-Latino whites

Source: Times Orange County Poll