Races Hinge on Money, Voter Uncertainty

Two truisms about California politics--that money reigns supreme and voters often don’t tune in until the last minute--are boldly underscored in a new Los Angeles Times poll that found overwhelming support for the best-financed ballot initiative in state history and continuing ambivalence by voters toward lesser-known contests.

Proposition 5, which would allow Indian tribes freer rein over their casinos, is backed by a hefty 58% of voters considered likely to cast ballots Nov. 3, the poll found. Thirty-two percent were opposed.

Tribes that favor the measure have raised almost $60 million. Opponents have collected less than half that amount--about on a par with their voter support--but that support has inched upward as their television advertising has increased. A record $86 million has been gathered so far by both sides in the Proposition 5 campaign.

Another indication of the power of television advertising came from Proposition 10, which would fund early childhood development programs with a cigarette tax increase of 50 cents per pack.

Opponents of the measure, chiefly the tobacco industry, have closed the gap since they expanded their advertising campaign in recent weeks.

In a Times poll taken in September, Proposition 10 was favored 53% to 37%. Now it is only marginally ahead, 47% to 43%.

In lesser-known contests for statewide office, Democrats were ahead among likely voters in all but one case--that of incumbent Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush, a Republican.

But indications of a Democratic near-sweep were undercut by the high percentage of likely voters who still do not know how they will cast their ballots. In all the races but Quackenbush’s, about a quarter or more of likely voters said they were undecided.

High percentages of uncertainty affected the results when it came to the initiatives as well, not an uncommon occurrence given the complexity of many ballot measures. Twenty percent of likely voters were unsure about Proposition 5 until it was explained to them, and then the percentage dropped to 10%.

For Proposition 10, 34% initially were unsure, a figure that fell to 10% when the ballot explanation was read to respondents. And fully 55% of likely voters said they did not know enough to decide on Proposition 9, which would limit the authority of utility companies. That improved, but only to 33%, when the explanation was read. The initiative was losing lopsidedly, 42% to 25%.

The Times Poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,449 registered voters, among them 883 people considered likely to cast ballots, from Oct. 17 to 21. The margin of sampling error is 4 percentage points in either direction for likely voters.

Overall, response to Proposition 5, the Indian gaming initiative, was sharply partisan, with two-thirds of liberals and moderates favoring it, and conservatives divided.

On the cigarette tax, Proposition 10, there was something of a partisan split as well, even though supporters have enlisted well-known Republicans to appear in their ads. Democrats favored the proposition, whose major backer is movie director Rob Reiner, by 54% to 35%. Republicans opposed it by a narrower 50% to 40%.

There was a predictable lifestyle split as well: Seventy-four percent of smokers, whose costs would rise, opposed it. A narrow majority of nonsmokers, 51%, favored it.

The electrical utility measure was unpopular across the board, though the uncertainty factor was high. Democrats opposed it, 43% to 30%, as did Republicans, 40% to 21%.

In the battles for statewide office, Democrats were largely benefiting from support from not only their own party, but also from moderate Republicans.

The exception was the insurance commissioner’s race, where incumbent Quackenbush held a 46%-38% lead over Assemblywoman Diane Martinez (D-Monterey Park).

Quackenbush had a much stronger hold on his own party than some of his GOP colleagues, with 51% of moderate Republicans and 80% of conservative Republicans backing him. He also was favored by 56% of independent voters, valued by candidates because they veer between the parties in state elections.

In the race for lieutenant governor--the post being vacated by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis--former Assembly Speaker Cruz Bustamante (D-Fresno) was ahead of state Sen. Tim Leslie (R-Tahoe City) by 35% to 26%. One month ago, a Times poll found the race essentially even.

Each was drawing equally from his own party, but Bustamante was attracting more Republicans than Leslie was Democrats. Only 5% of moderate Democrats were switching to Leslie, while 19% of moderate Republicans were siding with Bustamante, who is hoping to become California’s first Latino statewide elected official in a century.

The attorney general’s race was being dominated by state Sen. Bill Lockyer (D-Hayward), who was 13 points ahead of his Republican competitor, Chief Deputy Atty. Gen. Dave Stirling, 41% to 28%.

Lockyer, like Bustamante, was benefiting from moderate Republicans, 23% of whom backed him, while only 5% of moderate Democrats sided with Stirling.

Democratic Controller Kathleen Connell was helped not only by incumbency but also by the general Democratic tilt among voters. She led San Mateo County Supervisor Ruben Barrales, 47% to 24%.

In the race for state treasurer--the current officeholder, Matt Fong, is running for the U.S. Senate--Democrat Phil Angelides has overtaken Orange County Republican Curt Pringle, largely on the strength of an advertising campaign that mixed criticism of Pringle with accolades for Angelides. The Democrat led 39% to 32%; last month, Pringle had a marginal 30%-27% lead.

The contest for secretary of state proved the exception to the conventional thinking that incumbents have an inherent advantage this year. Democrat Michela Alioto, who in September was 5 points behind the office’s current holder, Bill Jones, boosted herself to a marginal 39%-37% advantage, even though she was not advertising statewide at the time of the poll.

Another incumbent, Democrat Delaine Eastin, was running ahead of Republican Gloria Matta Tuchman, 34% to 12%, in the nominally nonpartisan race for state superintendent of public instruction.

Eastin was up 7 points from September’s poll, but the race was hardly a barn-burner among the electorate yet. Fully 54% of likely voters said they did not know whom they would support, the largest such percentage among the statewide races.

The contest for insurance commissioner had the most committed voters, with only 16% saying they did not know for whom to vote. In the rest of the races, the don’t-know factor ranged from 24% to 35%.

Times Poll assistant director Jill Richardson contributed to this story.

More data from the Times Poll is on The Times’ Web site: https://www.latimes.com/elect98.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Mixed Prospects for Propositions

Among likely voters, Proposition 5 has wide support, while many are against Proposition 9, according to the Times Poll. Proposition 10 has no clear outcome. Democratic candidates may be ahead in most down-ballot races, but many likely voters are still unsure.

Likely voters were read the ballot descriptions of three initiatives and were then asked how they would vote if the Nov. 3 election were held today:

PROPOSITION 5 (Indian gaming):

Vote for: 58%

Vote against: 32%

Haven’t heard enough / Don’t know: 10%

*

PROPOSITION 9 (Electic utilities):

Vote for: 25%

Vote against: 42%

Haven’t heard enough / Don’t know: 33%

*

PROPOSITION 10 (Tobacco tax):

Vote for: 47%

Vote against: 43%

Haven’t heard enough / Don’t know: 10%

*

If the Nov. 3 election were being held today, for whom would you vote . . .

. . . for lieutenant governor?

Tim Leslie: 26%

Cruz Bustamante: 35%

Someone else: 4%

Don’t know: 35%

*

. . . for controller?

Ruben Barrales: 24%

Kathleen Connell: 47%

Don’t know: 29%

*

. . . for secretary of state?

Bill Jones: 37%

Michela Alioto: 39%

Don’t know: 24%

*

. . . for superintendent of public instruction?

Gloria Matta Tuchman: 12%

Delaine Eastin: 34%

Don’t know: 54%

*

. . . for attorney general?

Dave Stirling: 28%

Bill Lockyer: 41%

Don’t know: 31%

*

. . . for treasurer?

Curt Pringle: 32%

Phil Angelides: 39%

Someone else: 1%

Don’t know: 28%

*

. . . for insurance commissioner?

Chuck Quackenbush: 46%

Diane Martinez: 38%

Don’t know: 16%

Notes: All results are among likely voters.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,449 California registered voters, including 883 voters deemed most likely to vote, by telephone Oct. 17-21. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for likely voters, it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.