Impeachment Backlash May Harm GOP in State

President Clinton remains overwhelmingly popular in California and efforts to impeach him for lying about his affair with Monica S. Lewinsky could hurt Republicans more than Democrats, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Although the vast majority of likely voters say the Lewinsky matter makes no difference in their plans to show up at the polls Nov. 3, 26% say they are motivated to do so by the scandal and its fallout. Among this quarter of likely voters, slightly more are inclined to vote Democratic than Republican--a reversal from last month, when voters polled by The Times were inclined to tilt Republican after Clinton’s admission of a relationship with Lewinsky.

Moreover, a majority of likely voters disapprove of Congress’ decision to launch impeachment hearings in connection with the Lewinsky matter--54% register disapproval--and by 39% to 29% they say they are more likely to vote against a member of Congress who backs impeachment.

A quarter of likely voters said the House vote to open impeachment proceedings would make no difference in how they vote in congressional races.

Overall, by 50% to 43% likely voters say they want to see the Democrat rather than the Republican win in their congressional district.

Among the about one in four likely voters who say the scandal and its fallout increase their inclination to vote, sentiment has shifted markedly in the last month, to the benefit of Democrats.

Off-year elections--those held apart from presidential races--tend to favor the GOP, because turnout is normally lighter and Republican voters are more reliable about going to the polls. Hence, the GOP is likely to see gains in Congress on Nov. 3, in California as well as across the nation. However, the gains may not be as great as Republicans dreamed--and Democrats dreaded--at the height of revelations in the Lewinsky scandal.

“While Republican sentiment has shown little change over the past month or so, the actions in Congress surrounding impeachment have apparently energized a growing number of Democrats, as seen in this poll,” said Susan Pinkus, director of The Times’ poll. “It’s affecting a relatively small percentage of the overall electorate. But in tight races, a more energized Democratic vote could make a difference.”

The closely fought U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican state Treasurer Matt Fong helps illustrate the trend.

A Times poll taken in September, just two days after the release of independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr’s report in the Lewinsky matter, found Boxer paying a price for her close personal and political ties to the embattled president. Fong has made Boxer’s loyalty to Clinton a major issue in his campaign, accusing the Democrat of hypocrisy for her initially muted reaction to the scandal.

In the September survey, 14% of registered voters said the events surrounding the Clinton scandal made them more likely to vote. Of those, 66% were siding with Fong. But in the latest poll, among the 26% of likely voters motivated by the scandal, Boxer was getting 50% support, Fong 44%.

Similarly, in the race for governor, 57% of likely voters driven to the polls by the Lewinsky affair were backing Democratic Lt. Gov. Gray Davis, while 40% were backing Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren.

In the aftermath of Starr’s report, many believe that Republicans overplayed their hand by releasing Clinton’s videotaped testimony before the federal grand jury probing the Lewinsky affair, a move that apparently has now boomeranged. Moreover, the highly partisan vote in the GOP-run House to start impeachment proceedings seemed to further politicize the investigation, again to the detriment of Republicans.

Of the 15% in the September survey who said they were more likely to vote because of the scandal, 65% were Republicans and 23% were Democrats. In contrast, of the 26% in October who said they were more likely to vote because of the Lewinsky matter, 45% were Democrats and 38% were Republicans.

The sentiment reflects strong support for Clinton in California, a state that he has tended assiduously since his election, with 61% of likely voters approving his performance in office and 38% disapproving.

Ninety-one percent of likely Democratic voters give Clinton high marks, along with 60% of likely independent voters. Likely Republican voters disapprove of Clinton’s performance by 69% to 30%.

Reflecting Clinton’s popularity, a majority of likely voters say they disapprove of to launch impeachment hearings.

Overall, 54% of likely voters disapprove while 42% support the move. Not surprisingly, Democrats held most firmly to that view, with 82% opposed compared to 61% of likely independent voters. Likely Republican voters supported the move toward impeachment by 72% to 24%, mirroring the highly partisan divisions within the House of Representatives.

Women were somewhat more disapproving, 58% to 39%, than men, 50% to 46%, reflecting women’s more solid support for Clinton.

Asked whether a vote to impeach Clinton would make them more or less likely to reelect their member of Congress, 39% said it would make them less likely, 29% said more likely and 26% said no difference.

Fifty-nine percent of Democrats said less likely, along with 47% of independents. Fifty-two percent of likely Republican voters said a vote for impeachment would make them more likely to support reelection of their representative in the House and only 14% said less likely.

The poll surveyed 1,449 registered voters Oct. 17-21. Among them, 883 were deemed likely to vote. The margin of error is four percentage points in either direction for likely voters.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,449 California registered voters, including 883 voters deemed most likely to vote, by telephone Oct. 17-21. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for likely voters, it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.

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Clinton Approval Ratings High

President Clinton’s job approval rating:

Approve: 61%

Disapprove: 38

Don’t know: 1

*

Have the Monica Lewinsky scandal and the congress-ional vote to proceed with impeachment hearings against President Clinton made you more likely to vote in November, or less likely ordoes it not make a difference?

More likely: 26%

Less likely: 1

No difference: 72

Don’t know: 1

*

If your member of Congress votes to impeach President Clinton, would this make you more or less likely to vote to reelect him or her?

More likely: 29%

Less likely: 39

No difference: (Volunteered) 26

Don’t know: 6

Notes: All results are among likely voters.

Source: L.A.Times Poll

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll