August Unemployment Rate Inches Up

Hit with a seasonal drop in jobs in the farm and education sectors, Ventura County’s unemployment rate inched up to 6.5% in August, higher than the month before but still the lowest rate for that month since 1989.

Compared with July’s employment rate of 5.7%, the county lost about 2,500 jobs, most in farming and farm-related services, according to a report released Friday by the state Economic Development Department.

The county’s education system also reported a drop in employment, which analysts attributed to summer vacation.

“Looking back, this has historically been the trend,” said state labor market analyst Dee Johnson. “We always see this in the summer, and once fall rolls around, the numbers start to pick up again.”

More illustrative of Ventura County’s economic health, experts say, is the increase in jobs over the past year.

From August 1997 to August 1998, the county’s job market grew by more than 3.4%, creating about 8,000 jobs, most were in industries such as manufacturing, transportation, public utilities, communications and business services.

All this, experts said, points to a vibrant regional economy poised to make significant gains in the years to come.

“It’s absolutely fantastic,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, which monitors the Ventura County economy. “The labor markets are enjoying their best year in the 1990s, and it’s growing faster than any of us would have expected.”

Nonfarm employment, usually considered the true barometer for gauging an economy’s health, surged 3.6% in August over the same period last year.

Farm employment, on the other hand, crept up just 0.7% in August compared with August 1997. The growth occurred in the agricultural services sector.

Ventura County has been riding the crest of an economic tsunami since the state launched itself from the recession of the early 1990s.

During that time, employment has shot up to a point where the pool of unemployed county residents cannot become much smaller.

Because of that, today’s high-octane job market may begin to level off.

“The levels [of employment] we’re seeing right now are not sustainable,” Schniepp said. “Eventually there will come a point when things start to cool off, but that’s normal and healthy.”

Also, turbulence in global markets will ripple across the U.S. economy, but Schniepp said their effect should not be enough to reverse or stop the nation’s economic engine.

“We’re likely to see a slowdown, but it’s nothing that should raise any concern,” Schniepp said. “[Ventura County] has a robust economy, and everything points toward a continuation of that kind of success.”

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Ventura County Jobless Rate

Aug. 1998: 6.5%

Source: California Employement Development Department