Public’s Support of President Found to Remain Strong

Despite the avalanche of revelation and accusation in special prosecutor Kenneth W. Starr’s report to Congress last week, strong majorities of Americans believe President Clinton should not resign or be impeached, and continue to give him high marks for his performance in office, a nationwide Los Angeles Times Poll on Sunday found.

Asked directly if Starr’s report, which contains graphic accounts of Clinton’s affair with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky, changed their opinion of the president, just over 7 in 10 of those polled said no. The survey found virtually no change in personal impressions of Clinton--which remain much more positive than those for Starr.

And asked what Congress should do next, 34% said it should censure the president, 18% said it should impeach him and 41% said it should simply drop the matter.

The survey did find some cracks in Clinton’s foundation after last week’s political earthquake.

Of those who said the report did change their opinion of him, 21% said it made them view him more unfavorably (while just 3% said it made them look at him more favorably). Though only about one-third of Americans overall believe Clinton should resign, support for resignation is growing among some conservative-leaning groups (such as frequent churchgoers) and has reached nearly 60% among self-identified Republicans, a trend that may increase pressure on GOP officials to maintain a hard line in the controversy.

Still, the overriding message in the poll is of remarkable stability in public support for Clinton’s job performance and resistance to his removal from office, despite deep doubts about his moral compass and integrity.

The survey reinforces the results of other polls conducted over the weekend by the Gallup Organization, CBS, Newsweek and NBC, all of which found little (if any) decline in Clinton’s job approval rating, after a media and political frenzy that exposed him to the most detailed airing of his personal failings any president has ever faced.

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 968 people; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Not surprisingly, given the exhaustive media attention, the Starr report has caught the country’s attention: A striking 78% of those polled say they had heard or read about it. (By contrast, just half had heard or read about Clinton’s rebuttal to the report.) Nearly 55% of those polled now say the issue is of great or some importance to the nation.

Starr’s decision to lace his report with extended reconstructions of Clinton’s sexual encounters with Lewinsky drew intense and intriguing reaction. Many Americans questioned Starr’s motives for doing so. Fully 50% said Starr included the explicit material “to embarrass and weaken the president,” while just 28% said his primary goal was “to strengthen his legal case”; 16% volunteered that he was hoping to do both.

In political terms, Starr’s decision to include that material functioned something like a suicide bomb, maiming Clinton and the prosecutor. The details did no good to Clinton’s public image: Three in 10 of those polled said the accounts of his relationship with Lewinsky made them look at him more unfavorably, while a contrarian 3% said they now view him more favorably, and the remaining 64% said the material did not change their opinion of the president.

But Starr actually fared considerably worse in the exchange, with 45% saying the decision to include the material made them view him less favorably, 6% saying they now view him more favorably, and the remaining 45% saying their opinion of him is unchanged.

Yet even after being exposed to those graphic accounts, on the bottom-line question Congress and the country now face, the poll found a clear majority of Americans continuing to oppose any action that would cause Clinton to leave office.

Asked if Clinton should resign because of “the allegations in the Starr report,” 63% said no, while only 32% answered yes. That sentiment is broadly based, with two-thirds of moderates and at least three-fifths of independents--women and men--all sharing it. Clinton’s base, in particular, shows only slight hints of erosion: Among self-identified Democrats and all Americans who say they voted for him in 1996, more than 80% oppose resignation.

Even so, there are signs that more conservative segments of the electorate that Clinton had successfully courted in the past are now moving away from him. Support for resignation is up to 41% among college graduates and 40% among Americans who attend church once a week or more; 36% of whites overall now think he should quit. However, 9 in 10 African Americans oppose resignation.

On impeachment, the survey finds much the same pattern, though beginning from a smaller base of support for any congressional effort to remove the president from office.

Support for impeachment is greatest (about 30%) among self-identified Republicans, conservatives and college-educated voters. On this question, there’s even less erosion in Clinton’s base: Just 6% of Democrats and 5% of his 1996 voters believe he should be impeached.

Though dozens of demographic and political groups were examined in the survey, in no group did an absolute majority support impeachment. Among independent voters, the most popular choice for Congress is to drop the matter entirely (44%), with 31% favoring a vote to censure the president and 19% believing that Clinton should be impeached.

As they contemplate the prospect of impeachment proceedings, 50% of Americans believe Congress will be influenced by partisan politics, while 42% are confident it will be fair. Partisan politics, in fact, shapes the reaction to the question itself: Self-identified Republicans largely believe the GOP Congress will be fair, while majorities of Democrats and independents think politics will play a larger role.

Like earlier Times surveys on the controversy, this poll continued to find Americans making careful distinctions in their assessments of Clinton, the charges against him and the implications.

On the four key charges Starr lodged against the president, the poll found that the prosecutor has so far convinced a clear majority of the public on only one of them. By 60% to 27%, those polled believe Clinton did, in fact, commit perjury, despite his claims to have provided “legally accurate” testimony in the Paula Corbin Jones sexual harassment case.

But Americans lean slightly toward Clinton on the prosecutor’s other charges. Did the president attempt to obstruct justice? Forty-two percent say yes, 46% say no. Did he tamper with witnesses? Forty percent say yes, 41% say no. Did he abuse his constitutional powers? This time, 42% say yes, 48% say no.

On all of these questions, the public separates along sharp partisan lines, with Republicans overwhelmingly believing Clinton is guilty, Democrats overwhelmingly affirming his innocence, and independents separating closely.

Attitudes toward Clinton himself show the public drawing the same careful lines.

His overall job approval remains at a robust 64%, with just 33% disapproving. That’s essentially unchanged from a survey taken immediately after the Aug. 17 speech in which he confessed to an inappropriate relationship with Lewinsky.

Nearly 8 in 10 Americans approve of Clinton’s handling of the economy--the best showing he’s had in a Times survey throughout his presidency. And by a 14-percentage-point margin, Americans pick Clinton over Republicans in Congress when asked who has the better ideas for solving the problems the country faces.

Attitudes toward Clinton as a person, though, are much more complex and equivocal. When asked for their overall impression of Clinton, 51% express a favorable view and 44% an unfavorable view. (By contrast, half of those surveyed said they had a negative impression of Starr, while just 33% viewed the prosecutor in a positive light.)

Clinton continues to score well on empathy and effectiveness: 63% of those surveyed agree with the proposition that he “cares about people like you,” and 73% believe he is “effective and gets things done.” Both of those numbers represent noticeable improvements from just before the report’s release. Still, when asked directly if they believe the scandal impeded Clinton’s ability to do his job, two-thirds said yes.

And Clinton continues to draw much more ambivalent reviews on measures of moral integrity. Just 25% believe he shares their moral values; 68% do not. Just 50% of those surveyed believe he has the honesty and integrity to serve as president; 44% do not.

Strikingly, though, Clinton’s showing on honesty actually constituted an increase since before the report’s release, albeit one within the poll’s margin of error.

With both parties in Washington now obsessed with calculating the scandal’s effect on the November elections, the survey finds little evidence of direct fallout.

On the question that political professionals are now watching most closely, it shows an advantage for Democrats over Republicans when Americans are asked how they intend to vote in the midterm elections.

The Democratic Party actually enjoys a greater favoritism rating than does the GOP.

Nor is there any direct sign of harm to Democrats when voters are asked if they see the November elections as an opportunity to register their views on the president: 21% of those polled say their vote in the congressional election will be a vote for Clinton; 14% say it will be a vote against him; and a majority of 55% say he will have no effect on their ballot.

Likewise, about one-fourth of those surveyed say they would be less likely to vote for their member of Congress if he or she votes to commence impeachment proceedings, compared with just 14% who said they would be more likely to vote for a legislator who does.

Several recent national surveys have shown interest in the election higher among partisan Republicans than partisan Democrats--which has fueled Democratic fears that the scandal may produce a turnout advantage for the GOP that tilts most of the close races in their direction.

But when asked in The Times Poll whether the controversy would make them more likely to vote, just 12% of Republicans said yes--the same percentage as among independents, and not much more than the 9% of Democrats who felt that way. Only 2% of Democrats, and 3% of Republicans, said it would make them less likely to vote. By far, the largest group in all three political denominations--83% or more in each case--said the controversy would have no affect on whether they vote in November.

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Times on the Web

More extensive data from The Times Poll are available online at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

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* COLUMN, B1; EDITORIAL, B4

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

THE TIMES POLL

Judging Clinton

President Clinton still has a positive favorable rating, and most Americans do not want him to resign.

* What is your impression of President Clinton?

Favorable: 51%

Unfavorable: 44%

* From what you have heard about the Starr report and President Clinton’s response to it, do you believe Clinton should resign?

No: 63%

Yes: 32%

Don’t know: 5%

Note: Numbers do not total 100% where “Don’t know” is not shown.

How the Poll was conducted: The Times Poll contacted 968 adults nationwide by telephone Sept. 13. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

THE TIMES POLL

Americans Still Back Clinton

The American public is not calling for impeaching the president.

* From what you have heard, do you believe Congress should impeach President Clinton, or censure him or should Congress drop the matter?

Drop matter: 41%

Censure: 34%

Impeach: 18%

Don’t know: 7%

Source: L.A. Times Poll