Davis Holds On to Lead, but Lungren Slashes Gap

Democrat Gray Davis holds a tenuous lead over Republican Dan Lungren with slightly more than six weeks left in the race for California governor, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Among registered voters, Lt. Gov. Davis outpolls Atty. Gen. Lungren 46% to 42%. Among those considered most likely to vote, the race is dead even, with 46% backing Davis and 46% backing Lungren.

But determining which voters will turn out Nov. 3--always a tricky proposition--is especially difficult in this odd election season, given the volatility of the scandal-saturated political environment.

For now, Davis appears to enjoy a slight upper hand in the race, with a more solid base of support.

Excluding voters more tentative in their selections--the so-called leaners--Davis leads Lungren 41% to 36% among registered voters. Eliminating the leaners among likely voters, Davis is marginally ahead, 42% to 40%.

At the same time, Davis is seen as the better candidate on education, which voters overwhelmingly cite as their No. 1 concern. Asked which of the two major party nominees would “do the better job of handling public education,” 46% of registered voters pick Davis--now starring in a statewide TV ad touting his education goals--and 31% choose Lungren.

But overall, after a batch of summer polls giving Davis a comfortable lead, the race to succeed Republican Pete Wilson seems to be shaping up in classic post-Labor Day form, as a close, hard-fought contest.

“While Davis enjoys some distinct advantages at this point, with six weeks to go and new political developments nearly every day, the race is essentially wide open,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. “The critical factor is going to be turnout, which no one can predict with any confidence this far out from election day.”

The Times Poll interviewed 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters, by telephone from Sept. 12 to 17. Among them, 684 were deemed likely to vote. The margin of error for the whole sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

With both candidates airing statewide TV ad campaigns, the next major event in the contest is a debate scheduled for Wednesday night in Sacramento. The meeting will be the third between the two contestants, who are generally thought to have split their first two face-to-face matchups.

By now, after two decades in public life and two terms in statewide office, Davis and Lungren are both fairly well known to state voters. And each is well regarded.

Fifty-five percent of registered voters view Davis favorably and only 18% unfavorably. Demonstrating his centrist appeal, Davis leads among self-described middle-of-the-road voters, 49% to 34%. Forty-six percent of independent voters view the Democrat favorably, as do 39% of Republicans. Only 29% of Republicans view Davis negatively.

In Lungren’s case, 50% of registered voters view him favorably and 26% unfavorably. Forty-one percent of independents have a favorable impression of him. But among Democrats, 32% view him favorably, compared to 40% who view him negatively.

Lungren’s improved standing against Davis appears to be largely a function of Republicans returning to the fold. Fully one-quarter of GOP voters defected to one of the three Democrats who ran in the June “blanket” primary, which allowed such crossover balloting.

In the latest survey, however, only 15% of registered Republicans are defecting to Davis. Of those, most are women, who may prefer Davis’ support for abortion rights.

“The partisan lines are hardening, which you would expect to happen as the election nears,” Pinkus said. “But it could also be one effect of the sex scandal swirling around President Clinton, which may be driving Republicans home.”

Conversely, 17% of registered Democrats back Lungren over their party’s nominee. Of those, the majority are men--highlighting a gender gap in the two candidates’ overall support. Among all male voters, the race is essentially tied, with 45% backing Lungren and 44% supporting Davis. Among women, Davis leads 47% to 39%.

Despite each candidate’s effort to paint the other as extreme, neither is seen by voters as particularly far out. Thirty-three percent of registered voters say they believe Davis’ political views are “about the same” as their own; 35% say the same of Lungren.

Moreover, the percentage calling Davis too liberal, 35%, is about the same as the number considering Lungren too conservative, 38%.

The race--the first California gubernatorial contest without an incumbent since 1990--is taking place against a backdrop of widely shared voter contentment, normally the sort of environment that favors incumbent candidates.

And with the economy perking along, other matters of concern have surged to the fore, chief among them education. Thirty-seven percent of voters cite the state of public education as their top worry, up from 30% in April. The next-closest issue is crime, cited by 27%, followed by immigration, cited by 12%.

While Davis enjoys the edge among voters on education, Atty. Gen. Lungren is seen as the better crime fighter, 47% to 30%. Although both candidates support capital punishment--they spent a good deal of time in both debates bickering over who is the more supportive--voters see Lungren as by far more likely to enforce the death penalty, 51% to 16%.

Davis is seen as better on handling the economy, 43% to 35%, and the environment, 48% to 24%.

For all the talk of character--which Lungren has recently seized upon as the centerpiece of his campaign and his most recent round of TV ads--the issue comes out essentially a wash between the two men.

Asked which candidate has the honesty and integrity to serve as governor, 32% of registered voters cite Davis and 27% say Lungren. Asked “which candidate shares the same values as you,” 38% name Davis and 34% Lungren. Asked which candidate has strong leadership qualities, 38% say Davis and 37% Lungren.

Ironically, despite Lungren’s efforts, it is Davis who appears to have made the greater strides on the character issue. Exit poll interviews in the June primary found that 50% of those citing “honesty and integrity” as important considerations voted for Lungren, compared to 24% who backed Davis.

Still, the survey suggests that the Clinton scandal could have an impact on the race, with turnout especially critical in a close contest. The controversy may serve as a prod for many Republicans to go to the polls. Twenty-three percent of Republicans said the matter makes them more likely to vote, compared to 6% of Democrats.

On the character front, Davis has also sought, at least indirectly, to make an issue of Lungren’s lack of military service. The lieutenant governor served in the Army Signal Corps during the Vietnam War. Lungren did not serve in the military because of student and medical deferments.

Eighty-seven percent of registered voters say Lungren’s lack of military service will have no effect on their vote, with only 11% saying it will make them less likely to support the GOP nominee.

Aside from the gender gap, there is also a predictable gap in the candidates’ support among different ethnic groups.

Lungren leads among whites, while Davis runs overwhelming ahead among African Americans. Although Davis garnered 55% of Latino support, Lungren’s outreach efforts appeared to be making considerable inroads, with the GOP nominee picking up 32% of Latino backing.

In contrast, Wilson garnered only 23% of Latino support in his 1994 reelection. GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole received just 18% of the Latino vote in 1996.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Race for Governor

* If the election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote: Dan Lungren or Gray Davis?**

Davis: 46%

Lungren: 42%

Don’t know: 12%

****

Why do you support your candidate?*

Position on the issues

Lungren: 26%

Davis: 25%

****

Is a Republican

Lungren: 20%

Davis: -

****

Is a Democrat

Lungren: 2%

Davis: 23%

****

Best choice of the candidates running

Lungren: 14%

Davis: 13%

****

Most experienced/best qualified

Lungren: 8%

Davis: 14%

****

Which candidate, Dan Lungren or Gray Davis...**

would do a better job enforcing the death penalty

Lungren: 51%

Davis: 16%

****

would be better at handling crime

Lungren: 47%

Davis: 30%

****

has stronger leadership qualities

Lungren: 37%

Davis: 38%

****

would be better at handling California’s economy

Lungren: 35%

Davis: 43%

****

shares your values

Lungren: 34%

Davis: 38%

****

would be better at handling public education

Lungren: 31%

Davis: 46%

****

would be better at working with the Legislature

Lungren: 29%

Davis: 44%

****

has more honesty and integrity

Lungren: 27%

Davis: 32%

****

would be better at handling the environment

Lungren: 24%

Davis: 48%

Notes: “ -- “ indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or not all answer categories are shown.

* Asked of voters who named a candidate; accepted up to two replies; top five responses shown.

** Among registered voters.

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

Source: L.A. Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters, by telephone Sept. 12-17. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.