Fong Looms Strong With Key Group of Voters

Six weeks before voters decide whether to grant her a second term, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer has failed to fully capitalize on the benefits of incumbency and is in danger of defeat, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

In results that underscore the importance of turnout in November, Democrat Boxer leads her Republican opponent, state Treasurer Matt Fong, by an 8-point margin among registered voters, 47%-39%. But among voters considered likely to vote, Fong leads by five percentage points, 48%-43%.

While turnout is notoriously difficult to predict--especially in this year’s scandal-stained political environment--the poll showed that Boxer is still a sharply polarizing political figure, and one who has been damaged by the furor over President Clinton’s relationship with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky.

When Fong voters were asked why they sided with him, the answer volunteered most often was that he is not Boxer, a sharp denunciation of the incumbent.

In her job approval rating, Boxer remains below the 50% point generally accepted as the low-water mark for successful incumbents. Forty-seven percent of registered voters approved of the way she is handling her job, with 30% disapproving. That was not markedly different from the 45%-27% verdict she garnered in an April Los Angeles Times poll.

Ultimately, the poll demonstrated that, for Boxer, election is tantamount to high-wire acrobatics. Eking her way into office in 1992 on the strength of women voters, she has not substantially broadened her base of support. She remains propped up largely by younger women voters--a group not always dependable on election day.

“She has the younger vote, but typically younger people do not come out to vote,” said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. “She really has to be much more visible to the electorate in order to better define herself.”

The poll surveyed 1,651 Californians Sept. 12-17. Among them, 1,270 were registered voters and 684 were deemed likely to vote. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction for registered voters and four percentage points in either direction for likely voters.

Taken as a whole, the poll results showed that, as with most reelection campaigns, the Boxer-Fong contest is shaping up as a referendum on the incumbent. And that, in Boxer’s case, is not necessarily good news.

While she has a reputation as a scrappy fighter, Boxer has not translated that image into goodwill among a majority of voters. And her efforts to change the focus to Fong--who remains largely unknown and thus vulnerable--have been hamstrung by Clinton’s troubles.

The poll showed definitively that Clinton has hurt Boxer--and that she has exacerbated the damage with her reaction to his admission of an illicit sexual relationship.

Asked, for example, if Clinton’s travails affected their likelihood of voting, 14% of registered voters said that it made them more likely to vote and 5% said it made them less likely. Although the scandal had no impact on most voters, the threat was visible on the margins.

Of those who said they were more likely to vote because of Clinton’s admission, 66% were siding with Fong.

Additionally, Boxer has been hurt by her initially muted response to Clinton’s admissions. Fully 30% of voters said they were less likely to vote for her because of her handling of the charges. Only 8% were more likely to vote for her. Of those now disinclined to vote, 19%--nearly one in five--were Democrats.

While it is unclear whether those numbers are crippling, they have blunted Boxer’s efforts to make inroads among groups that have not traditionally supported her.

Her job approval ratings illustrated her relative weakness for an incumbent. While she has a 61%-14% positive rating among members of her own party, only 24% of Democrats strongly approve of her tenure. Among Republicans, 41% strongly disapprove of how she has handled her job.

Her strength remains women, whose support forms a strong gender gap in Boxer’s favor. Men were split between Boxer and Fong, 46% to 44%. But women by far supported her, 48% to 35%.

Boxer Favored by Younger Women Vote

When the numbers were broken down, however, they were more problematic. In the head-to-head matchups, Boxer held on to 14% of Republican women--a group she wants to cultivate--and only lost 10% of Democratic women to Fong. She lost nearly twice as many Democratic men, however, at 19%.

In her favor, Boxer was handily defeating Fong among independents and moderates, capturing half of their support. Fong, in contrast, carried 33% of moderates and 24% of independents. While each held on to about the same proportion of their own party members, Boxer held on to 26% of conservatives, while Fong managed to attract a paltry 12% of liberals.

That came despite the fact that 41% of registered voters, and 50% of likely voters, described Boxer as “more liberal” than they are. Conversely, a far smaller 28% of both registered and likely voters said Fong is more conservative than their tastes.

If each ideological group voted at similar strength, the poll showed, Boxer would carry the election handily because of her strength among middle-of-the-road voters. But in California elections, conservatives have been more predictable voters, and Democrats this year fear that the president’s problems could make it even more difficult to curry favor among voters.

For Boxer, there were currents of concern even among the hurrahs of her most consistent supporters. While Boxer carried women, her strength was among those age 44 and younger, who backed her 52% to 26%. Women over 45 supported her, but much more narrowly, 46% to 41%.

Generational Split Found

The backing among male registered voters was similarly split. Men 44 and younger backed Boxer by a 47%-39% gap, while older men were virtually split at 49% for Boxer and 45% for Fong. Counting both genders, Boxer held a 50%-32% advantage among those age 44 and under and split their elders with Fong, 46%-44%.

The generational split was interesting, given that Boxer, who carried the young, is 57, and Fong, who has tried to portray himself as new generation Republican, is 44.

“The younger are much more liberal in this poll than the elderly,” said Pinkus, who also surmised that Boxer’s in-your-face image probably plays better among younger voters than their elders.

While Fong demonstrated strength in the poll, there are still clear openings for Boxer to score against him.

Even after his primary victory over Darrell Issa, relatively few Californians have a strong fix on him. Forty-six percent of registered voters, and 36% of likely voters, said they did not know enough about him to offer a positive or negative impression.

His voters also were repelled more by Boxer than they were attracted to Fong. Twenty-nine percent of his supporters said they backed him because they don’t like Boxer, and 22% said they were siding with him because he is a Republican.

Among Boxer voters, in contrast, 26% cited her party and 20% her experience in Congress. Twenty-one percent also cited her stands on the issues.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters, by telephone Sept. 12-17. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asians were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

THE TIMES POLL / Senate Race

If the November election for U.S. senator were being held today, for whom would you vote: Matt Fong or Barbara Boxer?

Dont know: 14%

Fong: 39%

Boxer: 47%

Note: Responses from registered voters

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Race for Senate

* Why would you vote for that candidate?*

*--*

Fong Voters Boxer Voters Dislike Boxer 29% --% Fong is a Republican 22 -- Boxer is a Democrat -- 26 Best choice of the candidates running 16 11 Like stand on the issues 14 21 Most experienced/Best qualified 7 20

*--*

* Which candidate do you think better understands people like you: Barbara Boxer or Matt Fong?

Registered Voters

Boxer: 45%

Fong: 31%

Don’t Know: 20%

* Do you believe that Barbara Boxer’s/Matt Fong’s views are generally more liberal than yours, more conservative or about the same as yours?

*--*

Boxer Fong More liberal 41 6 More conservative 9 28 About the same 30 29 Don’t know 20 37

*--*

* Barbara Boxer believes in the right of every woman to decide whether to have an abortion. Matt Fong would place restrictions on a woman having an abortion after the first three months of her pregnancy. Which candidate comes closer to your views on abortion?

Registered Voters

Boxer: 51%

Fong: 39%

Don’t know: 3%

* Barbara Boxer was an outspoken critic of Clarence Thomas when he was nominated by Republican president George Bush to be a Supreme Court justice and an outspoken critic of Republican Sen. Bob Packwood after allegations of sexual harassment surfaced about both men. Boxer has not been as vocal about Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky. Does this make you more or less likely to vote to reelect her or does it not make a difference?

*--*

All Registered Voters Democrats Independents Republicans More likely 8 10 9 6 No difference 59 75 60 38 Less likely 30 12 28 53 Don’t know 3 3 3 3

*--*

* Asked of voters who named a candidate; accepted up to two replies; top five responses shown.

Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or not all answer categories are shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll