Great Diversity in Expectations

June Foley and Gloria Garcia may both live in Orange County, but they have vastly different visions of where the place is headed. Where one sees murky and difficult times, the other envisions a future full of promise.

Garcia, who moved here 10 years ago from Mexico City, is so pleased with her Garden Grove neighborhood that she and her husband are saving to buy their first house there. Foley, who moved south from Los Angeles 43 years ago and now lives in Orange, feels less secure.

“As long as the county keeps getting more and more people, I don’t see how it could possibly get better,” she said. “At the apartment complex I lived in four years ago, I was the only one who spoke English. It’s kind of odd to think you’re living in the country you were born in and you feel like it’s a foreign country.”

As Orange County rolls toward a new millennium, a recent Times Orange County Poll finds that the county’s racial and ethnic groups are split about the future, with Latinos, Asians and other minorities more upbeat and more bullish about growth and development than white residents.

When asked to describe the quality of life in the next decade, given Orange County’s increasing diversity, 31% of whites said it would get worse and only 18% said it would improve.

For nonwhite respondents, the outcome was nearly reversed: 33% said it would improve and 20% said it would get worse.

To be sure, most respondents were in the middle, with more than 40% in both groups saying the quality of life would stay the same. But those with more extreme views tended to split by ethnicity.

“It’s a divided county, essentially two different places with a divided view of the future,” said Cheryl Katz of Baldassare Associates, which conducted the poll. “Nonwhites have a brighter view of the county and the way things are going. Whites are losing what had been a dynasty, but for nonwhites, it’s an opportunity.”

In the span of less than a lifetime, as its population has grown tenfold, Orange County has been transformed from a white enclave to a stew of races and ethnicities. The county is now diversifying faster than almost anywhere in the nation, even charging ahead of neighboring Riverside and San Diego counties.

Within the next 10 years, Orange County’s white population is expected to drop below 50%, joining Los Angeles and 225 other U.S. counties where other ethnic and racial groups outnumber whites.

Although the poll results divide along racial lines, they are open to interpretation because so many factors--from age and class to length of residency--could be at work.

Some said the attitude gap confirms that, despite years of coexistence, whites and ethnic and racial minorities remain separate and alienated from each other.

Others, focusing on the optimism of minorities, found cause for celebration. They said the results show the county had turned a corner in tolerance.

“Orange County has had some difficult history in regard to its treatment of ethnic minorities and their feeling unwelcome here,” said Rusty Kennedy, executive director of the county Human Relations Commission. “There was pretty open discrimination against blacks and Latinos in housing in the ‘50s and ‘60s. But clearly with the change in demographics over the last 20 years, those attitudes have dramatically changed too. I see it as a very positive development. It’s good for us all.”

Among respondents, there were conflicting emotions. R.D. Mitchell, 48, a former building contractor born in Huntington Beach who now lives in San Juan Capistrano, has fond boyhood memories of a sparsely settled county and worries that development will consume all that is good about it. At the same time, he said he hopes the county can find innovative ways to blend the cultural groups now calling it home.

“I don’t think diversity itself is good or bad,” he said. “I think what we do with it is good or bad, how we handle it. Our county could be a model [of integration]. Unless that happens, Orange County is going to turn into an L.A.”

Most experts said it is too soon to tell where the county’s evolution will lead, whether divisions will become entrenched or whether, over time, various cultures will move together into a harmonious middle class. But demographers and sociologists are watching it closely.

“If there is any hope that we’re going to live in a melting pot, it should be in a place like the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area,” said demographer William Frey of the Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan. “I would at least hold out the hope that, especially in Orange County, with its high income levels, in the long run there’s more opportunity for assimilation and integration and intermarriage.”

California Boasts ‘Multiple Melting Pots’

There is little doubt that the face of Orange County will continue to change, like many counties around the country. In just the last six years, 43 U.S. counties have lost their white majorities.

Some of the new majority-minority counties are within aging metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia and St. Louis, where blacks now outnumber whites, as well as California and Texas counties that are drawing large numbers of Latinos and Asians, including Fresno, Monterey and Merced.

What distinguishes California’s diverse areas--such as Orange County, Riverside and Los Angeles--from East Coast models is that they are home to several ethnic and racial minorities rather than only one.

They have become “multiple melting pots,” in Frey’s words. And this, he said, is cause for optimism. “There’s not just one target minority,” he said, “and studies have shown that people are more likely to accommodate others when there’s a mixture.”

Two signs of the change: the 1996 election of Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) in a congressional district monopolized for years by conservative Republican Robert K. Dornan; and the growth of the Latino business community, demonstrated by the emergence of the local Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, which was created in 1986 and now has 350 members.

But the rapid transition to a multiethnic region has not come without difficulty. Once home to the John Birch Society and the birthplace of Proposition 187, the 1994 initiative to limit public services to illegal immigrants, Orange County has been linked in public perception to intolerance.

“Whenever you have this kind of change, you’re going to see that,” said Kennedy of the Human Relations Commission. “The aging formerly majority white population is slowly seeing the community as they knew it change into something completely different. There are natural tendencies toward fear, and it points to the importance of taking measures to limit those fears so people aren’t driven to do hostile and hateful things.”

Dale Maharidge, whose book, “The Coming White Minority,” chronicled demographic changes in Dana Point, was doubtful that those fears could be ameliorated in the near future. “What we’re seeing in California is a First World state with a Third World subculture, like nothing that exists on the planet. And Orange County epitomizes the class differences in this state,” he said. “For several reasons, I don’t think that’s going to change. . . . It will grow and become entrenched, and the class divisions will harden.”

Despite Disparities, Some Upbeat Outlooks

Indeed, progress has come unevenly, with income and education levels of Latinos lagging behind those of whites. But several community leaders said they expect that to change over time, as the county’s lightning-speed demographic shift stabilizes.

John Palacio, a business consultant and Latino community activist, said he is heartened that despite the split shown by the poll, a majority of whites--65%--said the county would be the same or better with growing diversity.

“That means there’s acceptance,” he said. “It shows Orange County is a place where diversity is valued, and that’s a big difference from just a few years ago.”

Tony Lam, who arrived here from Vietnam 23 years ago and now serves on the Westminster City Council, said he’s already seen attitudes transformed. “At first, there were a lot of myths about the Vietnamese. ‘How come they just get here and in a few years they’re driving new cars? Maybe the federal government gives them a better loan or does some kind of favor.’ But it’s all mythology, hearsay,” said Lam, who owns a restaurant in Little Saigon.

“The true fact was they worked very hard and pooled resources together. Over time, people saw that was all. I would say there is more understanding, more tolerance today.”

Garcia, for one, believes she has a solid shot at a better life in Orange County. Now 20, Garcia came north with her parents as a child, fleeing the pollution and crowding of Mexico City. By any measure, she said, her life has steadily improved since.

With an infant son, Garcia and her husband work full-time and are saving for a home near their Garden Grove apartment. Crime is down, schools are improving, and the neighborhood seems friendlier these days, Garcia said.

For different reasons, Orange Coast College student Lilian Pham also is upbeat about the county’s future and excited about its growing diversity. Without it, said the 18-year-old daughter of Vietnamese immigrants, life would be boring and bland. “My friends are all different cultures and ethnicities,” she said. “If the county wasn’t diverse, I wouldn’t have these friends. And I learn a lot from them.”

Views Also Split Along Age, Economic Lines

In addition to the split on quality-of-life issues, the races were divided on questions about growth and development. More whites than nonwhites said they fear the county will be overdeveloped in a decade, lacking sufficient open space and losing much of its suburban character.

Slightly more whites than nonwhites also said they plan to move away from the county in the next 10 years.

Katz said the differences in responses are statistically significant and clearly indicate that whites and minorities view the county’s transition differently. “I was surprised at how stark they were,” she said.

But there are many possible explanations for the differences, including age and economic class.

Non-Hispanic whites as a group are older and wealthier than others in Orange County, and they tend to have lived here longer. Those factors alone would make them more culturally conservative and pessimistic about a changing future, said Joel Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Pepperdine Institute for Public Policy.

In fact, a split did show up when responses were divided by age, with older residents more pessimistic.

“What you run into are older whites who may have moved to Orange County in the ‘40s and ‘50s,” he said. “These people liked it the way it was, when the county was less crowded, less of a hassle. There was less traffic, the beaches were clean and you didn’t think about crime or gangs.

“And what’s different? One of the things that’s different is they weren’t here. So the issues of race, diversity and growth and change and crowding all get mixed together.”

Population Growth Fueled by Nonwhites

Indeed, growth and diversity came to Orange County at the same time, and very quickly.

In 1950, the county was rural and remote: Only 216,224 people lived here, and nearly all of them--99%--were white, according to the U.S. Census.

Two decades later, when the population had mushroomed to 1.4 million, the white share had dwindled to 86%. In the following years, as immigrants arrived from Mexico, Vietnam and other troubled countries, the population and its diversity grew rapidly.

By 1996, with about 2.6 million residents, whites accounted for about 59% of the population, Latinos 27% and Asians 12%.

The population growth of minorities--particularly Latinos--continues to outpace that of whites, now largely through higher birth rates rather than immigration. From 1990 to 1994, Latinos accounted for 45% of all Orange County births even though they represented only about one-fourth of the population, according to the Center for Demographic Research at Cal State Fullerton.

And whites have been leaving the county in greater numbers than any other group throughout the 1990s, according to the state Department of Finance. In 1996, 11,000 fewer whites lived in Orange County than did four years earlier.

For a look at the county’s future, glance at any elementary school playground: Countywide in 1995, K-12 enrollment was 46% white, 37% Latino and 14% Asian. Kindergarten enrollment was even more dramatic: 41% white and 45% Latino.

That closely matches projections for the county in the next century. By 2020, whites are expected to become a minority, at 41%, matched by Latinos, at 41%, with Asians growing slightly to 15% and blacks accounting for about 3%.

As the numbers grow, and as the offspring of immigrants stabilize and move into the middle class, the distribution of minorities also will change, said William Gayk, who directs the demographic research center at Cal State Fullerton.

“What you will see over time is that the disparity tends to disappear,” he said.

‘An Inevitable Trend’ of Cultural Exchange

When they arrived in the county, minority immigrants tended to cluster together in distinct areas: Latinos in Santa Ana and Anaheim, Asians in Garden Grove and Irvine. But that already is beginning to change. From 1990 to 1995, the share of whites declined and minorities increased throughout the county, even in South County cities that have been considered refuges for whites.

In Mission Viejo, for instance, the share of white residents dropped from 85% to 80.5%. In Dana Point, the number dropped from 83% to 78%.

As time goes on, more and more Latinos, Asians and whites will be neighbors, demographers said. For that reason alone, the attitude gap shown by the recent poll may diminish.

“In the short term, we’ll go through some more difficult terrain, but down the line, with generations growing up together, there will be a lot more intermarriage and cultural interchange and globalization of our county,” said Manuel Gomez, who was raised in Orange County and is vice chancellor for student services at UC Irvine. “It’s an inevitable trend.

“Every previous generation has suspected waves of immigrants will overwhelm the society, and every generation in the past has been wrong,” he said. “I don’t see any difference with this new wave.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Racial Mix in Orange County

Orange County’s white population will shrink as the overall population grows.

1950 (216,224)

White: 99%

Non-white: 1%

1990 (2.4 million)

White: 65%

Non-white: 35%

2020* (3.2 million)

White: 40%

Non-white: 60%

* Projection

Sources: U.S. Census, Cal State Fullerton Center for Demographic Research

Picture of Change

As Orange County’s white population declines, most of the change will be the increase in Latinos. The proportion of Latinos will grow from one in four in 1990 to four in 10 in 2020, matching the white figure. Another indicator: By 1995, about a third of the county’s cities were at least 40% minority.

*--*

White Latino Asian Black 1990 65% 23% 10% 2% 1995 59 27 12 2 2000 54 31 13 2 2005 50 34 14 2 2010 47 36 15 2 2015 44 38 15 3 2020 41 41 15 3

*--*

Non-White Populations, 1995

50% or more

Santa Ana

Stanton

Garden Grove

Anaheim

La Palma

Westminster

*

40-49%

Buena Park

La Habra

Tustin

Fullerton

Placentia

*

30-39%

Orange

Costa Mesa

Cypress

Fountain Valley

Irvine

*

20-29%

San Juan Capistrano

Brea

Los Alamitos

Lake Forest

Huntington Beach

Yorba Linda

Unincorporated areas

Laguna Hills

Dana Point

San Clemente

Laguna Niguel

Villa Park

*

10-19%

Mission Viejo

Laguna Beach

Seal Beach

*

Less than 10%

Newport Beach

Split Views

Minorities are more optimistic that Orange County’s economic engine will help improve their financial lot, more convinced that added ethnic diversity will improve the local quality of life and more likely to think the county will be a better place to live in a decade than are white residents.

* Do you expect your own financial situation to become better or worse as a result of the economic growth underway in Orange County, or do you think there will be no change?

*--*

White Other Better 61% 69% Worse 7% 6% No change 30% 21% Don’t know 2% 4%

*--*

* As Orange County becomes more racially and ethnically diverse in the next 10 years, do you think the quality of life in Orange County will improve, get worse or stay about the same as it is today?

*--*

White Other Improve 18% 33% Get worse 31% 20% Stay same 47% 42% Don’t know 4% 5%

*--*

* Ten years from now, do you think Orange County will be a better place to live, a worse place to live or about the same as it is today?

*--*

White Other Better place 23% 38% Worse place 31% 13% Same 42% 47% Don’t know 4% 2%

*--*

* Do you want the county’s current strong economy to continue even if it means a loss of open space and environmental quality in the future?

*--*

White Other Yes 29% 40% No 66% 54% Don’t know 5% 6%

*--*

* Ten years from now, do you think there will be more than enough, just enough or not enough open space in Orange County to suit your needs?

*--*

White Other More than enough 4% 4% Just enough 25% 37% Not enough 69% 55% Don’t know 2% 4%

*--*

* Ten years from now, do you think Orange County will be more like the city of Los Angeles, or will it still be a suburban region like it is today?

*--*

White Other More like L.A. 44% 34% Still suburban 52% 63% Don’t know 4% 3%

*--*

* Ten years from now, do you think you will still be living in Orange County or do you see yourself living elsewhere?

*--*

White Other Orange County 58% 64% Elsewhere 37% 33% Don’t know 5% 3%

*--*

* Do you want the county’s current strong economy to continue even if it means more population growth and traffic congestion in the future?

*--*

White Other Yes 46% 60% No 50% 34% Don’t know 4% 6%

*--*

Note: Whites includes non-Hispanic whites; Other includes Asians, Latinos and blacks.

Sources: Cal State Fullerton Center for Demographic Research, Times Orange County Poll

About the Poll

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Baldassare Associates. The random telephone survey of 600 adult Orange County residents was conducted July 23-26. The sample reflects the demographic characteristics of adult Orange County residents. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. That means the results are within 4 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in Orange County were interviewed. For subgroups, such as regions, the margin of error would be larger. For registered voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 5%.

About the Series

Beyond 2000 is a series of articles that explore how our lives will change in the next millennium. The series will continue every Monday through the end of 1998 as The Times Orange County examines what’s in store for the county in such areas as transportation, education, growth and technology.

On The Internet: The Beyond 2000 series and an interactive discussion are available on the Times Orange County Edition’s Web site at https://www.timesoc.com/HOME/NEWS/ORANGE/beyond.htm