RISKY BUSINESS

With the 1999 season opening tonight, owner Jerry McMorris of the Colorado Rockies looked back on another wild winter of free-agent signings and concluded that a new category had been created.

“It’s not just the haves and have-nots anymore,” he said. “Now it’s the haves, the have-nots and the super media teams in places like New York and the Los Angeles area.”

Major league teams spent almost $1.1 billion on free agents during the off-season, with the Angels and Dodgers among seven teams-- Arizona, Baltimore, Texas and the New York Yankees and Mets the others--accounting for more than $800 million of that.

Fox’s Dodgers set an industry record with the seven-year, $105-million signing of pitcher Kevin Brown, and Disney’s Angels set a club record with the six-year, $80-million signing of first baseman Mo Vaughn.

The Dodgers also signed free agents Alan Mills, $6.5 million for three years, and Devon White, $12.4 million for three years. The Angels also signed Tim Belcher, $10.2 million for two years.

All of those contracts include perks--whether award, performance or appearance bonuses, or Brown’s package, which includes award bonuses, 12 cross-country flights on a private jet for his family, and eight premium tickets for Dodger home games.

“I never thought I’d see the day when players would be receiving hotel suites on the road and the use of a plane,” said Buzzie Bavasi, the former general manager of the Dodgers and Angels.

“Where does it go from here? Two-bedroom suites and the use of a limo to and from the park? It’s really kind of amazing.”

Among baseball’s top 10 salaries, based on average annual value, the top six were all signed last winter, with Brown No. 1 at $15 million a year and Vaughn No. 2 at $13.3 million.

“I don’t know where it ends, but it’s certainly not something that’s going to go down,” former Dodger general manager Fred Claire said of the escalation. “Every contract becomes a benchmark for the next contract, and there’s never been a time when the value of a contract was so close to the overall value of a franchise, with both established by market standards.”

He referred to Brown’s $105-million contract being more than one-third of the $311 million Fox paid Peter O’Malley for the team.

It is a treacherous proposition, of course, but in an era of expansion- diluted talent, “You can’t win without signing a free agent or two,” Claire said.

“I mean, it’s nearly impossible to build a contender without filling a void that the farm system can’t fill.

“If you say that payroll doesn’t matter, that you can still win simply through good scouting, development and trades . . . well, give me an example.”

It is a familiar theme now. Of the teams with the 15 lowest payrolls in 1998, only the Toronto Blue Jays had better than a .500 record. The eight that qualified for the playoffs all ranked among the top 12 in payroll.

Claire’s Dodgers failed to win with a 1998 payroll of $48 million.

Now Kevin Malone’s Dodgers will try with a payroll of more than $80 million.

Behind Mark McGwire’s 70 home runs and the New York Yankees’ 125 wins and the spectacular performances of 1998, the widening disparity in payroll, revenue and competitive balance led to Commissioner Bud Selig’s appointment of a blue-ribbon committee to study baseball’s economics. There is a mounting fear that management’s renewed demand for salary restraint will produce another work stoppage when the bargaining agreement expires after the 2001 season.

The Dodgers and Angels, in the meantime, have put their hopes and checkbooks on the line. How to measure the payback on contracts of the Brown and Vaughn magnitude?

“The only way is if a player fulfills the terms of the contract and also gets his team to the postseason,” Claire said. “If all that falls into place, you can say it was a worthwhile contract.”

There are also the ancillary rewards.

Besides a national spotlight and the impact their credibility and tenacity will have on teammates, Brown and Vaughn are expected to significantly boost attendance and broadcasting revenue, as Darryl Strawberry did with the Dodgers and Reggie Jackson with the Angels.

Neither club has ever plunged this deep, but both have experienced the risks and rewards of free agency.

How to rank those previous signings? A difficult proposition.

Many seemed to make sense at the time but simply didn’t pan out because of injury or performance.

A few stand out--both good and bad.

For the Dodgers, certainly, their return to the market took an act of courage, given the results of their first foray.

In the winter of 1979, then- general manager Al Campanis, responding to O’Malley’s urging, signed Minnesota Twin starting pitcher Dave Goltz to a six-year, $3-million contract and Baltimore Oriole relief ace Don Stanhouse to a five-year, $5.1-million contract.

Measured against Brown’s

$105 million, the money seems negligible, but Goltz and Stanhouse helped raise the bar in the early years of free agency, so much so that the Dodgers--stop me if you have heard this recently--were accused by other teams of having negotiated against themselves, with O’Malley directly involved.

“I don’t think that’s true,” Claire said of O’Malley’s involvement. “I do think Peter sent a clear signal to Al that we had to get better [after a 79-83 finish in ‘79] and to go sign people that could help the team.”

Neither Goltz nor Stanhouse-- nicknamed “Full Pack” by Baltimore Manager Earl Weaver because that’s how many cigarettes he went through when Stanhouse was on the mound-- provided that help.

A 20-game winner in Minnesota who threw up before every start, Goltz had the Dodgers throwing up after he pitched. He went 9-18 in two years with the team, was waived with four years left on his contract and found temporary residence in the halfway house that the Angels often operated for injured and released pitchers.

Stanhouse, who had saved 45 games in the previous two years, went 2-2 with seven saves in his first year with the Dodgers and was released before the second, returning to Baltimore, where Weaver was again asking if anyone had a match.

The Dodgers took a cautious approach to free agency after that. Players came and went, but generally through trade.

Of subsequent signings, Kirk Gibson, Brett Butler, Todd Worrell and Hideo Nomo stand out among the best. Strawberry may be remembered as the worst--though not at the time.

“Darryl represented a major obligation,” Claire said of the five-year, $20.3-million contract. “But never before had there been a player of his age who had accomplished what he had accomplished available through free agency. We also weren’t breaking any barriers with the contract because Jose Canseco had signed for more [$23.5 million for five years] the previous year.

“Darryl wasn’t looking to have the largest contract, only a good contract and the opportunity to come back to L.A. We knew he’d had off-the-field problems, but we were hoping that coming home would make a difference. The character of a person is highly important, but talent is No. 1.”

Strawberry represented talent and more.

“If you sign a free agent to a big contract only for the publicity value you’re stupid,” Claire said. “But if you get the benefit of that, then you have the best of all worlds. Darryl was far and away our most visible signing, and he did impact attendance and some of our broadcasting contracts. The press conference at which he was introduced was probably the most widely attended of any we ever had.”

Strawberry also had a great debut with the Dodgers, hitting 28 homers and driving in 99 runs in 1991 before injuries and his recurring battles with substance abuse reduced his availability to 75 games over the next two seasons and he became a major distraction, ultimately forcing the Dodgers to swallow the last two years of his contract.

“We had looked at Darryl as a bridge to the young players like [Raul] Mondesi, [Eric] Karros and [Mike] Piazza,” Claire said. “If he had done what he wanted to do and what we wanted him to do, the story of the ‘90s would have been a very different one.”

Even so, it is interesting to note that Strawberry out-performed Gibson statistically, even though Gibson is remembered as a far more favorable signing--maybe the Dodgers’ best ever.

Gibson signed a three-year, $4.5-million contract and led the outmanned Dodgers to a World Series title in 1988, when he won the National League’s most-valuable-player award with a .290 average, 25 homers, 76 RBIs and his leadership.

Injuries left Gibson a part-time player in 1989 and ‘90, but his pinch-homer in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series will live in Dodger lore, and whereas Strawberry became a distraction, Gibson “brought a presence in the same way I see Mo Vaughn bringing a presence to the Angels,” Claire said.

The Angels, driven at times to compete with the Dodgers on the marquee and to win for late owner Gene Autry, were far more active than the Dodgers in free agency, helping initiate the new process in the winter of 1976 by signing Don Baylor, Bobby Grich and Joe Rudi. Rudi was plagued by injuries but Baylor, who received a six-year, $1.6-million contract, and Grich, who got a five-year, $1.69-million deal, continue to rank among the club’s best investments.

Grich was a 10-year fixture at second base, and Baylor powered the Angels to their first division title in 1979 with 36 homers and 139 RBIs as the American League’s most valuable player, then had 24 homers and 93 RBIs when the Angels won the West again in 1982-- the year of Jackson’s Anaheim debut.

If Baylor and Grich weren’t the Angels’ best signings, Jackson was. He got a four-year contract at $950,000 per, which also netted him 50 cents for every admission over 2.6 million. He promptly tied for the AL home run lead with 39 in 1982, driving in 101 runs as Angel attendance jumped from 1.4 million to 2.8 million. He came back from a poor season in 1983 to hit 25 homers in ‘84, one his 500th, and 27 in ’85. He was always in the headlines and spotlight.

“Dealing for Reggie was dealing for a cinch Hall of Famer,” Bavasi, the Angels’ general manager at the time, said. “The same with Rod Carew [who was obtained in a trade with Minnesota made possible by his imminent free agency]. They gave us instant credibility. Our season[-ticket] sales went from 6,500 to 12,000 when we got Rod, and from 12,000 to 18,000 when we got Reggie.”

The Angels’ worst?

Maybe Gary Gaetti, who had four seasons of 28 or more homers with the Twins but hit only 30 in two-plus seasons with the Angels after signing a four-year, $11.4-million contract in 1991-- ultimately becoming so frustrated that he openly believed witches inhabited Anaheim Stadium and demanded out.

Maybe Bruce Kison, who had elbow and shoulder surgeries in his first season, 1980, after signing a $2.4-million contract and went 4-7 over his first two seasons before salvaging a 21-10 record over the next two, or maybe that bum-of-the-month campaign-- Bill Travers, John D’Acquisto, Jesse Jefferson--that Bavasi went on after Nolan Ryan left and Bavasi said he only needed to find two 8-7 pitchers to replace him.

Maybe Jim Abbott, who had not won more than 11 games in any of the previous four seasons but caught General Manager Bill Bavasi thinking with his heart instead of his head in 1996. For his second stint with the Angels, Abbott signed a three-year, $7.8-million contract in January, promptly went 2-18 and was released the following spring, the Angels swallowing the remaining $5.6 million.

Now Brown and Vaughn have raised the bar to record heights. The Dodgers and Angels know the risks of free agency and know there is nothing free about it. But it’s a necessary evil in this expensive, expansion-diluted era when there is no one way to build a winner.

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FREE AGENT HITS AND BUSTS

ANGELS

The Angels have had some success in the free-agent market, helping start the new process in the winter of 1976. Remember Joe Rudi?

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HITS

Don Baylor

36 home runs, 139 RBIs and AL MVP in 1979.

Bobby Grich

Career-high 30 home runs in 1979 while batting .294.

Reggie Jackson

39 home runs in 1982 to tie for the AL lead. Angel attendance went from 1.4 million to 2.8 million.

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BUSTS

Gary Gaetti

Hit only 30 home runs in two-plus seasons.

Bruce Kison

Went 4-7 in his first two seasons as an Angel.

Jim Abbott

Went 2-18 in his return to Anaheim.

DODGERS

The Dodgers are one of seven teams that accounted for more than $800 million in free-agent signings during the off-season:

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HITS

Brett Butler

His 112 runs scored in 1991 is third on Los Angeles Dodger list.

Todd Worrell

All-time Dodger career save leader with 127.

Kirk Gibson

NL MVP in 1988 who provided invaluable leadership.

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BUSTS

Dave Goltz

Went 9-18 in two seasons in Los Angeles.

Don Stanhouse

2-2 with seven saves before his release.

Darryl Strawberry

After stellar start, injuries and substance abuse problems led to his release.