Come Jan. 1, Chicken Little Will Eat Crow

Earlier this year, the ninth day of the ninth month of the 99th year of the 20th century came and went with no computer failures, other than those that occur routinely every day. The supposed 9/9/99 problem was a hoax. So too is the Y2K problem--the concern over how computers will handle the change from 1999 to 2000. What possibly started as a small joke among computer programmers has become the cause of near-panic in some people, made worse by the entry of politicians who see an opportunity to save humanity from Y2K.

The Web site for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (OES) lists disasters that potentially could occur come Jan. 1. Loss of electrical power and water, failure of emergency vehicles and releases of hazardous materials are on the list. Even the staid Consumer Reports listed a host of precautions that should be taken to prepare for possible Y2K disasters.

These disasters indeed could occur. So too could a comet strike Earth, or a massive earthquake open a mile-wide crack in Los Angeles. But any reasonable person is able to assess probable risks from the fantasy material for horror flicks.

Politicians in Sacramento and elsewhere have overreacted and panicked over another non-problem. When nothing happens, the same politicians and bureaucrats will probably attempt to take credit for saving us from the disasters that could have occurred if it were not for their vigilance. And they will begin inquiries into whether there really ever was a problem.

We are indeed highly dependent on computers. As one little example, your car contains a microprocessor to control ignition and other functions. This microprocessor is a computer that could experience Y2K problems, thinking that it was 1900 and preventing your car from starting after the stroke of midnight on Jan. 1, 2000. But this is nonsense. The electronic circuitry and computers in a car do not care what year it is. Your car will not think it is 1900 and turn into a horse!

To help defuse the Y2K hoax, Continental Airlines did the right thing earlier this year. The calendar for the flight management computer for a Continental Boeing 737 was changed to 2000 while the plane was in the air. The plane continued to fly safely, with absolutely no problems. The software came with the plane when it was purchased and had not been modified nor fixed in any way.

The Y2K problem has been known for many years, and most software has been fixed and is Y2K compliant. Large-business programs written decades ago might have had a problem but most have been repaired. Nearly all databases and programs already are working with dates far into 2000. Payment dates for mortgages and bonds, actuarial tables, airline schedules and graduation years are just a few examples of dates that already extend far into the next century. The programs are working with no glitches.

The software that controls most things such as your car, traffic lights, aircraft, telephone switching machines, elevators and electric power generating plants simply does not care what year it is.

Y2K has been foisted on us by people who are reaping big bucks in telling us all that could happen from a mostly nonexistent problem. When the sky does not fall, investigations will begin to determine who benefited from the hundreds of billions that were wasted on the Y2K hoax. Whatever problems might still exist in various computers are minor.

So what then should you do to prepare for Y2K? How about a good bottle of champagne. Meanwhile, come the morning of Jan. 1, probably the only thing working will be computers.