Recession Forecast for British Economy in ’99

The British economy is probably already in a recession, albeit a very mild one, due to tumbling demand both at home and abroad, according to a joint forecast by Oxford Economic Forecasting and the London Business School. The report said there was little Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown could or should do in his March budget to ease the slump this year. The economy would probably contract in both the first and second quarters of this year, OEF said, thus fulfilling the definition of a “technical” recession. Growth for the year would be about 0.4%, compared with 2.5% in 1998, it said. Its full-year forecast is broadly in line with forecasts by London economists but well below the 1% to 1.5% growth predicted by the British government.