Panic’s a Bigger Peril Than Y2K
What’s going to be worse? The Y2K computer rollover from 1999 to 2000 or the fears surrounding it? Evidence suggests the latter.
A recent national poll showed that more than two out of three Americans believe that Y2K problems will last at least a couple of months. One in four intends to hoard food and water. And 16% of those polled said they will remove all of their money from banks.
The “end of the world as we know it” has become a money-making scandal. You name it: long-term storage foods, water, various fuels, generators, otherwise isolated and useless plots of land for so-called survival hide-outs. Only the backyard bomb shelter craze of the 1950s compares.
Should Americans panic because some National Guard units are developing responses to possible year 2000 shutdowns? The answer is no. That’s what the military does, prepare for things, as well it should.
Meanwhile, evidence that civilization will continue abounds. The travel industry, for example, has reported mostly problem-free computer bookings of post-1999 departure and return dates, including 500,000 airline reservations on hundreds of air carriers.
Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman dismisses the likelihood that Y2K will lead to widespread food shortages. That’s because only one-third of U.S. farmers rely on computer systems, and the computers that are used are mostly for record-keeping. Hoarding food, Glickman said, would only make matters worse.
More evidence: that new credit card with an expiration date of 2000 or beyond. If you haven’t crashed any cashier systems, it means that several merchants have Y2K-ready sales and inventory systems.
Many of the nation’s water and sewage control systems are not run by computers, so not much probability of a major problem there.
Industry officials say that some power outages might occur, but Americans have broad experience with such events related to various natural disasters. We know what to do.
Of course, problems remain. Several states have lagged behind on their Y2K efforts. California is making progress, and Gov. Gray Davis has made the following sensible decisions: setting aside all non-Y2K computer projects, building up his team of Y2K experts and developing contingency plans for worst-case scenarios. In the Los Angeles city government, upgrades have yet to begin on 20 of 94 department systems. Surprisingly, Los Angeles County claims that all of its critical systems are ready.
By far, the worst scenarios come from foreign soil. Russia says it needs $3 billion from Washington and NATO for computers that control its nuclear weapons. Beijing newspaper reports say that experts at more than half of the nation’s crucial electronic systems didn’t even know how to detect the glitch. A World Bank survey said that fewer than 40% of 139 developing countries have anyone in charge of addressing the Y2K problem. Obviously, the situation is much better in the United States, and will remain so as long as Americans don’t panic.
