Regional Economists Expect Another Good Year for O.C.

Orange County ended 1998 on a cheery economic note and people whose business it is to put their reputations on the line and prognosticate are saying this year should be just about as good.

To wit, the latest from Jack Kyser and Ken Ackbarali, chief and senior economists, respectively, of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. Kyser and Ackbarali say that Orange County will “continue to battle the Riverside-San Bernardino area for regional growth leadership in 1999.”

Yes, the L.A. business group does look at Orange County’s economy. Indeed, all five counties in the basin are linked as tightly as April 15 is to federal income taxes. To not consider the mini-economies of each in an economic overview of the region would result in a report with a fatal flaw or two.

In Orange County, the economists say, the brightest stars will be the biomedical, technology, commercial, retail and industrial construction, and business and professional management services industries. All are expected to gain--both jobs and importance in the county’s economic picture--during the year.

Anaheim, with its Disneyland-oriented tourism and retail revitalization, and Irvine, with its research and high-tech industrial center in the Spectrum, will be the hot spots in the county--economically speaking at least--during the year, according to Kyser and Ackbarali.

There are a few potential problem areas. The vaunted international trade area needs to adjust to the hits that the Asian economies have taken in the past year, since those troubles have reduced overseas demand for the kinds of goods and services Orange County’s technology and development planning industries have long supplied, the report says.

Other areas that bear watching:

* Clothing design and manufacturing, always in flux and an important employer in Orange County, the state’s second-largest apparel manufacturing center after Los Angeles.

* Automotive, which could be hurt by continued downsizing of some Asian car makers that have established U.S. headquarters in the county.

* Health service, plagued by overcapacity in the county’s private hospitals.

* Tourism, which will be depressed in the short term by the same Disneyland and Anaheim Convention Center expansions that ultimately will boost the county’s tourism business.

Overall, though, the report says the county’s economy remains in good shape. Employers should add about 38,000 new jobs to their payrolls during the year and the jobless rate should remain fairly stable at about 3.1%.

The report adds one final caveat, kind of in the “why can’t we all just learn to get along together” vein:

“The debate over the reuse of the Marine Corps Air Station at El Toro is growing more acrimonious,” the economists wrote. “This situation could really poison relationships in the county’s business community for a long time to come.”