Election Autopsy Shows Lungren Was DOA

On a misty weekend in an ivory tower, confessions flowed. Recriminations echoed. There was braggadocio from the victors, humility among the vanquished.

Political warriors jotted down mental notes for future campaigns, sizing up their enemies’ strategic thinking processes.

There especially was a morbid curiosity about the political dead. Just how did they die, exactly?

This was a post-mortem, a dissecting--ugly innards and all--of the 1998 California governor’s election. The host, the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley, invited the key strategists from each side, plus a few dozen other junkies--consultants, professors, journalists.

Theoretically, enough time had elapsed since the November election to permit these strategists to level about what really had happened.

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So how did Democrat Gray Davis manage to bury Republican Dan Lungren by 58% to 38.4% in a landslide? Here are some notes I took Friday and Saturday:

* Amazingly, Lungren thought he could beat Davis by the force of his personality and strong character. Issues didn’t matter. It was “the strategic fatal error,” said Lungren pollster Dick Dresner, who added that he constantly argued against the strategy.

The thesis was this: Every modern gubernatorial race in which an incumbent wasn’t running had been very close. And in the end, it simply was a popularity contest. Swing voters sided with who they liked. And they would like Lungren the best. Never mind that many thought he came across as arrogant and bombastic. And never mind also that in the gubernatorial race most similar to this one--the 1958 election, when Republicans had been in power for 16 years and unions had been energized by an anti-labor initiative--the Democrat (Pat Brown) won by nearly 20 points.

* Lungren shied away from most issues for two reasons: He was reluctant to be specific because “he thought it would lock him into positions as governor,” said campaign manager Dave Puglia, calling that a major mistake. “We couldn’t convince him that first he had to be elected governor.” Also, Lungren was vulnerable on certain issues because of his past congressional voting record and just wanted to avoid them. “We ran a messageless campaign,” Dresner lamented.

Lungren didn’t understand that when a candidate takes forthright stands on issues, even if voters might disagree with him, he usually passes their character test. Ronald Reagan proved that.

* But even if you do pass the character test, that isn’t enough when it comes to some litmus issues, such as abortion. Lungren ran a TV ad trying to explain his abortion position. As a Catholic, he thought it was wrong, although in some circumstances--a life threat to the mother--it should be allowed. Commented Davis’ campaign manager Garry South: “In this state, abortion is a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ question.” And Puglia conceded it would be “very difficult” for an anti-abortion candidate to be elected governor.

* Lungren was skittish of Gov. Pete Wilson and “ran away from him,” said Dresner, who also is Wilson’s longtime pollster. “It was a big mistake.” By not reminding Republicans that he had favored the anti-illegal immigration and anti-affirmative action initiatives, Dresner said, it cost Lungren his voter base. He was worried about upsetting Latinos, but got only 23% of their votes anyway.

* As it turned out, Puglia said, Wilson and his fund-raising machine “saved our butts” by keeping the campaign solvent.

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Other notes:

* Despite tradition and conventional wisdom, the low election day turnout benefited Democrats. Republicans weren’t motivated by any issues to vote, reported Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.

* Illustrative of Davis’ strength, Dresner said that during the primary campaign he showed voters TV ads by Lungren and Democrats Al Checchi and Jane Harman. Davis couldn’t afford an ad yet. “I asked, ‘Who are you going to vote for?’ They said ‘Davis.’ ”

* “The general election was all over on primary election night,” said Davis strategist South. By finishing slightly ahead of Lungren in the open primary, while soundly beating the Democrats, Davis had unstoppable momentum.

* Davis ran TV ads playing up his Vietnam war record, not merely to show he wasn’t a “wienie,” South said, but to “distance” himself from President Clinton’s perceived draft dodging. The ads, pollster Paul Maslin noted, ran the same time as the movie “Saving Private Ryan” came out. It was Davis’ response to Lungren’s flawed campaign about character.

It’s a messy system, but it usually works. After all, anybody who can’t run a good campaign probably can’t run a government.