HOW THEY MATCH UP
The United States holds an 11-5-5 edge against China in a series that dates from 1986, but the teams have split four games in the last 12 months. Three of the four were decided by one goal, and China won two of the three played this year. In other words, it’s going to be close. A breakdown of the matchups:
U.S. DEFENSE VS CHINA OFFENSE
The Chinese book on the American back line of Joy Fawcett, Carla Overbeck, Kate Sobrero and Brandi Chastain reads as follows: Fawcett sometimes overcommits on offense; Overbeck can be beaten for speed, Sobrero is the least experienced and occasionally is flustered under pressure and Chastain can be goaded into retaliatory fouls.
That would seem to make things simple for Chinese strikers Jin Yan and Sun Wen, who already have scored 10 goals between them. All the same, it would be unwise to assume the U.S. is defensively porous.
While the American rear guard has made its share of mistakes in the tournament, the fact is it has given up only three goals and has shut out three of its five opponents. Goalkeeper Briana Scurry is in top form, which only adds confidence to the players in front of her.
“I’m not worried about our defense,” Coach Tony DiCicco said.
Then again, China has not scored fewer than two goals in any game in this World Cup and Sun, who has seven goals, is chasing the scoring title. Another U.S. shutout seems unlikely.
EDGE: CHINA
U.S. OFFENSE VS CHINA DEFENSE
The question China’s coaches have been asking is: Who exactly are the American strikers? Tiffeny Milbrett has three goals, Mia Hamm has two and Cindy Parlow has two. Not exactly world championship-winning numbers.
But the figures are deceptive. The strength of the U.S. attack lies in its diversity, in the fact that the goals can come from almost anywhere, including off the bench. So far, of the 18 goals the U.S. has scored, eight have come from the forwards, seven from the midfielders, two from the defenders and one was an own goal.
In all, 10 American players have scored, including key reserves Shannon MacMillan and Tisha Venturini.
China’s defense, meanwhile, has been penetrated only twice in five games--once by Sweden and once by Australia. The Swedish goal came only two minutes into the game and the Australians’ tally came when they were two goals down.
China’s back line of Fan Yunjie, Wen Lirong, Bai Jie and Wang Liping is solid but not unbeatable. The same goes for goalkeeper Gao Hong.
EDGE: U.S.A.
THE MIDFIELD BATTLE
China lines up in a 4-4-2 formation, which means that if the U.S. sticks to its 4-3-3 alignment, the Chinese will have a one-player advantage in the middle.
U.S. midfielders Michelle Akers, Julie Foudy and Kristine Lilly are not going to be able to cope with all four at the same time and still spark the attack, meaning the defenders will have to help.
Chances are, Sobrero will be assigned to shadow Sun, with Fawcett handling the dangerous Zhao Lihong, who attacks down the left flank. But that still leaves Liu Ailing, Liu Ying and Pu Wei to deal with. Midfield could be where the battle is won or lost.
EDGE: CHINA
GOING TO THE BENCH
Here the edge definitely rests with the American team. Had the U.S. reserves been fielded as a separate team in the World Cup, they probably could have reached the quarterfinals.
MacMillan and Venturini are the most likely candidates to come in if the U.S. needs goals. Tiffany Roberts and Lorrie Fair could be called upon to shore up the defense. Sara Whalen’s speed might also be called upon. China’s reserves are a largely unknown quantity.
EDGE: U.S.A.
INTANGIBLES
In a sense, the U.S. already has won. The result of the game will not detract from what the team has accomplished in lifting the sport’s profile to unheard-of heights.
The teams are so evenly matched and play such a similar brand of soccer--quick passing, keeping the ball moving, maintaining possession, firing from all angles--that it could all come down to a single great effort or a single disastrous mistake.
The fans will be loud but otherwise not a factor. The Chinese are accustomed to large crowds.
What separated the teams in the Olympic gold-medal game three years ago was a surging run by Fawcett, an inspired pass by Hamm and a cool finish by Milbrett.
Somewhere deep within it, the U.S. team has the fortitude and the strength of character to again summon up such feats.
EDGE: U.S.A.
PREDICTION
In what promises to be a high-scoring game, United States 3, China 2.
